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The Retirement Planning/ Investment/ Savings Thread (11 Viewers)

DrStrange said:
Hard as it is to stomach, patience and stalwartness win the prize. The S&P is up roughly 8.5% plus 1.5% in dividends over the last 12 months. Sure, we are down 10% from the high this year. Making 10% in a year before taxes is a great result even if you could have sold a month ago for +20%

You'll be bored in good times, perhaps uncomfortable in hard times. Just know that however bad it is, it will all be better if given a few years. And if you are still investing, you are getting to buy in at a relative bargain. Doing nothing in the face of adversity is a pretty solid investment plan.

Here is a plug for diversification. Domestic stocks are down for the year. Foreign stocks are a bit better off. US Treasuries are profiting handsomely as 10-year rates are down 60 basis points, meaning the bonds have gone up in value sharply plus paid out 4+% in interest (annualized). It is times like these where you'll find some extra comfort in diversification.

Be Brave -=- DrStrange
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Wise words, as ever.

I'm still bullish on my pension's American growth fund (I've still got the best part of 30 years until retirement). But, like you said, there's comfort in diversification at the moment, so have allocated more to my global fund.
 
ekricket said:
Hahahahahaha
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?

I think entering adulthood in the Great Recession, and then following that with 2 decades of crises, is enough.

And while I have been extremely lucky, it hurts me to watch others who aren’t. It’s my own problem, but I was discussing it this morning at breakfast. The mental gymnastics I need to do to spend money on things like chips while watching what others go through (and what I claim to care about) is a lot.

It’s saddening how often I find empathy and social agreements lacking for folks, and while it’s simply my own subjective personal experience, I’ve found that far more often in older generations.

But, hahahahahahahah indeed. Foolish me, just a moronic kid.
 
BarrieJ3 said:
I think it’s just a touch harder to stomach EVERYTHING as an American in your 30s.

Yes, I know recency bias and all that other jazz. But still, objectively, not a ton of folks have spent their entire adult lives in constant economic crises as part of entire generations with very little to no power - socially, economically, etc.

Fun stuff.
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Well the 80’s and 90’s had thier fair share of ups and downs - S&L crises, Black Monday, dot.com bubble, dot.com crash.

70’s had hyper inflation and the oil embargo’s, etc .

It’s not a new phenomenon- lol.
 
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Budha said:
Well the 80’s and 90’s had thier fair share of ups and downs - lol.
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100%. I'm not woe is me, and I definitely understand that the resources available on this planet and overall qualify of life world wide has only increased, every day, every year.

Those are the overarching, objective facts. And based on what I've read, I guess I believe it? It's just hard when you don't see it or live it, and none of your social circles, constructs, and known folks see it or live it either.
 
BarrieJ3 said:
It’s saddening how often I find empathy and social agreements lacking for folks, and while it’s simply my own subjective personal experience, I’ve found that far more often in older generations.
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That’s partly because our parents and grandparents told us to STFU because they fought in world wars and lived through the depression- :unsure:

The notion of feeling entitled to the accomplishments of others, regardless of one’s contribution (or lack there of) just wasn’t a “thing” back then.

A swift kick in buttox was though :ROFL: :ROFLMAO: (My father and grandfather gave them out freely - lol)
 
Budha said:
The notion of feeling entitled to the accomplishments of others, regardless of one’s contribution (or lack there of) just wasn’t a “thing” back then.
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I definitely wrestle with this. It is kind of maddening to look even at my parents buying power/employment situation and not feel a little resentful, though.

But if I hadn’t fucked around in college and gotten started in my current career earlier, the paths may have been similar, or at least more comparable.

My parents definitely jumped into adulthood and “life” younger than me or any of my peers that I know. I think that plays a bigger role than a lot of older millennials are willing to admit. We certainly had some arrested development.
 
suchj0sh said:
I definitely wrestle with this. It is kind of maddening to look even at my parents buying power/employment situation and not feel a little resentful, though.

But if I hadn’t fucked around in college and gotten started in my current career earlier, the paths may have been similar, or at least more comparable.

My parents definitely jumped into adulthood and “life” younger than me or any of my peers that I know. I think that plays a bigger role than a lot of older millennials are willing to admit. We certainly had some arrested development.
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I think this a really good point and to some degree it’s probably relative.

I do think folks are exited college with significantly more debt now than 20 years ago. That can certainly make it more challenging and delay “getting ahead”.

I will concede that previous generations had it easier in that regard. College was expensive, but not like it is today.
 
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I joined the service right out of high school, earned my education through GI Bill, worked my ass off, and recovered from a stupid mistake to have middle class success with two defined benefit pensions and social security I paid into for over 50 years. Now I’m not rich, but through a very diligent savings plan and conservative investment strategies, I own my home, and can live comfortably in my retirement. Keep at it, little thing done right make a difference 30 years down the road.
 
It’s a whole life! During that time I’ve had major expenses hit, 3 family member deaths I either paid for all or part of, 2 kids through college which was not cheap, and regular maintenance on our house even though we had it built things do wear out. And my wife believes in helping the church keep its doors open through better than average weekly contributions. I never once said it’s been easy, that would be untrue.
 
Haven't looked at my 401k balance in years. Either way, I know I'm ahead relative to what I'm in for. Just have to keep riding the wave and be aggressive if you're born after 1975.

Relax, maybe get yourself a frozen custard if you're upset.
 
I am of the “buy and hold” school, which says to never sell in a panic. Historical data shows that it doesn’t actually matter when you buy into the market, unless you have to sell in a hurry to raise cash.

All that said... I do think there is a nontrivial chance of events occurring which are completely outside the history of the stock market. A complete implosion, not just a crash, could be brought on via total incompetence or recklessness or some other outlier.

But in that case, everyone will be equally screwed so maybe it’s not worth thinking about.
 
Taghkanic said:
I am of the “buy and hold” school, which says to never sell in a panic. Historical data shows that it doesn’t actually matter when you buy into the market, unless you have to sell in a hurry to raise cash.

All that said... I do think there is a nontrivial chance of events occurring which are completely outside the history of the stock market. A complete implosion, not just a crash, could be brought on via total incompetence or recklessness or some other outlier.

But in that case, everyone will be equally screwed so maybe it’s not worth thinking about.
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There's always a non-zero chance of catastrophe. But I think overall it depends on your situation. I've got 20 years until I retire so I'm riding it out. My dad is retired and moved all of his retirement to very safe accounts back in January.
 
@Taghkanic Yes, I agree there are significant paths to ruin in 2025. None likely, some not even that plausible but a host of economic disasters are now thinkable.

Where does one turn to mitigate the tail risks? And in doing so, aren't we just picking up another package of risks in our hoped-for safe haven?

Insurance generally costs inventors in the form of lower returns. My bonds don't generate the same return as equity investments most years. If I went to "safe haven" hard assets (e.g. gold, gems, art) the returns would be even more diluted.

I have given this question some hard thought. My best solution is too expensive for me - residential real estate rentals elsewhere in the world (because it becomes a place to run should the worst of the black swan events occur.) There are visa issues. And the costs for implementation look to be multi-million dollar investments Plus you run the risk of economic sanctions against Americans even from historically stalwart US allies.

On an even grander plan - yachts can often keep out of politically difficult situations and can be made relatively self sufficient. With enough money. Perhaps a fine plan if I had a nine figure net worth. Alas, even my chip horde doesn't come to that.

I see no good economic defense vs the worst of the rare events. Buckle your seatbelts and enjoy the ride as best you can. -=- DrStrange.
 
DrStrange said:
@Taghkanic Yes, I agree there are significant paths to ruin in 2025. None likely, some not even that plausible but a host of economic disasters are now thinkable.

Where does one turn to mitigate the tail risks? And in doing so, aren't we just picking up another package of risks in our hoped-for safe haven?

Insurance generally costs inventors in the form of lower returns. My bonds don't generate the same return as equity investments most years. If I went to "safe haven" hard assets (e.g. gold, gems, art) the returns would be even more diluted.

I have given this question some hard thought. My best solution is too expensive for me - residential real estate rentals elsewhere in the world (because it becomes a place to run should the worst of the black swan events occur.) There are visa issues. And the costs for implementation look to be multi-million dollar investments Plus you run the risk of economic sanctions against Americans even from historically stalwart US allies.

On an even grander plan - yachts can often keep out of politically difficult situations and can be made relatively self sufficient. With enough money. Perhaps a fine plan if I had a nine figure net worth. Alas, even my chip horde doesn't come to that.

I see no good economic defense vs the worst of the rare events. Buckle your seatbelts and enjoy the ride as best you can. -=- DrStrange.
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Compounds made from old school buses are a lot cheaper. They are all over. If you don’t want to build one, simply scope one out and if we go back to the dark ages because of simple political differences ( because that’s what humans do, yawn) execute a takeover plan and move in.

Makes about as much sense as the rest of the drivel about this in this thread does.
 
buzzmonkey said:
There's always a non-zero chance of catastrophe. But I think overall it depends on your situation. I've got 20 years until I retire so I'm riding it out. My dad is retired and moved all of his retirement to very safe accounts back in January.
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I’m less concerned about losing my savings than something like hyperinflation rendering savings worthless.
 
So I bought 10 PayPal in June 2021 at around 279 and its at like 68 lol. I should prob sell this and get another rack of chips that at least might be useful lol.
 
Tight_Lay_DOWN said:
A few quick things

1. Get a Zero Balance checking account.
2. Short Tesla, if you haven’t already.
3. Acquire property, commercial or private.
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O.k., not too much negativity from this post, so here it is.

I highly recommend to distance yourself from earning a living by getting a W2.

You should consider becoming a business, earning a living as a C-corp, S-corp, or LLC. (Do what ever you can to eliminate the W2 in order to build wealth as a business (controversial suggestion this will be)).

Once you become a business you get all the Financial advantage of a business, in regards to income, expenses, taxation, and legal protections.
 
Lil Tuna said:
I get it. I just responded. Wasn’t the one responsible for the removal.
I’m in the camp of healthy debate, I don’t run to mom and dad when I don’t like something. ;)

Wish you were local, I’d have you over for whiskey and cigars. :cool
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It's all good — I know you well enough to know it wasn't you, for sure. And I'd definitely take you up on that invite, too.
 
PSA:
When doing Roth conversions (partial) you will need to make Estimated Tax Payments in the conversion year to Federal (and State). These tax payments are not reported back to you for a tax year, so you will need to log into Federal IRS website to see your payments or contact your state directly (for state). The amount you convert annually is reported to you via 1099R from your 401(k) provider who did the conversion to modify your income correctly. I almost missed a 1099R when doing this year’s taxes, so this is a general public service announcement for those who are in a similar situation.
 
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