Red aces, big blind, micro stakes (1 Viewer)

[DrStrange]

We are playing $0.25/$0.50 $20 max buy in, seven handed. It is the depths of Summer. Attendance is often limited this time of year, but the core regulars are here. The stakes are far too low for the $1/$2 crowd, they would have to be seriously bored to make this game. Everyone is having a good time, though the two tightest players are suffering a bad night.

Cast of characters:

Just about everyone is limping, so nothing specific yet. The table is mostly loose, passive with a couple of tight passives. Hero is the most aggressive player at the table tonight which is a little unusual. As always, the table is replete with sticky calling stations. Once they start a hand, they like to see it to the bitter end.

Stacks range from $15 to $100+. Hero has $70 in play. Average stack is just over $50.

The hand.

Everyone limps to Hero in the BB except the tightest guy who is on a nasty bad luck streak tonight.

Hero picks up in the big blind. Check or raise? If raising how much?

Special notes. This table will fold to a "big" bet. I think Hero takes down the pot somewhere between $4 and $5 bet a lot of the time. Hero might get five or six way action if he raises to $1.50. So Hero can make a rough choice for how many people stay in the hand with a fairly narrow range of betting.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I think Hero takes down the pot somewhere between $4 and $5 bet a lot of the time. Hero might get five or six way action if he raises to $1.50.

Make it $3 on top. Hopefully we'll pick up a caller or maybe two.

 

[stocky]

I was thinking $2.50 total.

 

[Hot Nuts]

tree fiddy

 

[DrStrange]

*** On the flop ***

Hero makes it $3 on top or $3.50 all day and gets one caller, the small blind. Heads up, $9.50 in the pot.

Villain notes: Villain is playing $55. Normal reads on this villain are dubious tonight because he is in the middle of a family medical emergency, stressed, tired, his mind is not fully on the game. (his wife sent him to the game assuring him that she would be fine without him that night.) Loose, wildly unpredictable prone to wild bluffs with significant betting tells. Hero has already picked off one such bet and got villain to go all in preflop with Hero holds AJo and villain 3-bet/calling with K7o. I think Villain plays better under these conditions, perhaps significantly so.

The flop Villain checks. Action on Hero, bet or check. If betting, how much? What is the plan for the hand -or- when does Hero become pot committed?

DrStrange

 

[ushallnotraise]

Bet $3-$3.50 total pre-flop.

Flop bet $6, if he check raises pre-tip dealer fist pump shove. He's usually c/r with a bluff or(more likely)pair+draw. If he c/r without shoving then you want to shove as to not give him a card on the turn that would kill your action. Any 7, J, Q, Diamond makes it harder to continue in the hand.

 

[Shaggy]

pre-tip dealer fist pump shove

This is awesome

 

[detroitdad]

*** On the flop ***

Hero makes it $3 on top or $3.50 all day and gets one caller, the small blind. Heads up, $9.50 in the pot.

Villain notes: Villain is playing $55. Normal reads on this villain are dubious tonight because he is in the middle of a family medical emergency, stressed, tired, his mind is not fully on the game. (his wife sent him to the game assuring him that she would be fine without him that night.) Loose, wildly unpredictable prone to wild bluffs with significant betting tells. Hero has already picked off one such bet and got villain to go all in preflop with Hero holds AJo and villain 3-bet/calling with K7o. I think Villain plays better under these conditions, perhaps significantly so.

The flop Villain checks. Action on Hero, bet or check. If betting, how much? What is the plan for the hand -or- when does Hero become pot committed?

DrStrange

I missed this initially. I would have bet three bucks pre flop. Seven on the flop.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Let's go $7.50 on the flop, ready to call a check-raise shove. However, if Villain calls and an ugly card comes on the turn, that could be a problem.

 

[BGinGA]

I see JQ monsters under the bed. We ~do~ have aces, after all.......

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Pre looks good to me.

Flop

Bet 7. Board hits Vs range harder but we get value from and need to charge all his pair + SD hands. Since game is sticky I'm continuing on blank turns looking for additional value. Diamond turns I'm calling a check raise.

If V check raises our flop bet I'm pretty cautious rest of hand. Having the nut flush blocker removes a big portion of his semi bluff range.

 

[DrStrange]

Hero is a 67/33 percent favorite vs a naked flush draw
Hero is a 70/30 favorite vs a naked OESD
Hero is a 56/44 percent favorite vs a pair + OESD hand.
Hero is a 38/62 percent dog vs a monster combo
Hero is a 31/69 percent dog vs two pair.
Hero is a 15/85 percent dog vs a set
Hero is a 7/93 dog vs a straight.

We need to pay attention to pot commitment. I didn't see anyone offer an opinion so far, though a bet/call plan equals pot commitment so there are those comments.

I am rounding up to make life easier. There is $10 in the pot, effective stacks are $52. Lets say Hero bets $7 and is called. Then the pot would be $24 and effective stacks $45. Is that pot committed on a turn brick? How about on a flop shove?

Hero is also mindful this is a slight RIO situation. Villain is folding all of his awful range unless he decides on a wild bluff. But villain is calling with every hand better than pocket aces.

 

[DrStrange]

*** On to the turn ***

Hero checks. $9.50 in the pot, effective stacks $52. Hero holds

Turn < >

Villain bets $4. Action on Hero, fold, call or raise? If raising, how much?

DrStrange

 

[ushallnotraise]

*** On to the turn ***

Hero checks. $9.50 in the pot, effective stacks $52. Hero holds

Turn < >

Villain bets $4. Action on Hero, fold, call or raise? If raising, how much?

DrStrange

Smack yourself for not leading flop, call turn and re-evaluate river.

 

[detroitdad]

Smack yourself for not leading flop, call turn and re-evaluate river.

I concur

 

[DrStrange]

So let's say Hero had led the flop for $7 (74% pot). We don't really expect many villains are folding a diamond draw or the top end of an OESD do we?

Assume villain calls making a $23.50 pot and $44.50 effective stacks. Now villain bets just under 1/2 pot, $11. If Hero calls that makes a $43.50 pot and effective stacks of $33.50.

Is Hero stacking off on a river brick for a 3/4th pot jam? Or is Hero calling the turn bet solely in hopes of making the diamond flush (or perhaps an off-suit jack falls giving us a straight on the board?

 

[Shaggy]

So let's say Hero had led the flop for $7 (74% pot). We don't really expect many villains are folding a diamond draw or the top end of an OESD do we?

Assume villain calls making a $23.50 pot and $44.50 effective stacks. Now villain bets just under 1/2 pot, $11. If Hero calls that makes a $43.50 pot and effective stacks of $33.50.

Is Hero stacking off on a river brick for a 3/4th pot jam? Or is Hero calling the turn bet solely in hopes of making the diamond flush (or perhaps an off-suit jack falls giving us a straight on the board?

This statement seems a little results oriented.

 

[ushallnotraise]

We don't really expect many villains are folding a diamond draw or the top end of an OESD do we?

Probably not, but if we bet flop and turn bricks for draws then they usually have to fold to another bet. TP+draw is the only hand that can semi-comfortably stay in the hand. J8/J9/Q9/Q8 have to fold a lot of turns. That's one of the reasons we bet flop.

is Hero calling the turn bet solely in hopes of making the diamond flush (or perhaps an off-suit jack falls giving us a straight on the board?

No. We typically call turn and re-evaluate river. But Hero put themselves in a bad situation by checking back the flop. It makes the rest of the hand much harder to play.

If we put villain on a pair and a draw on the flop and a turned straight, like JT, then we are 20.45% to bink the river and 4.55% to chop, so 25% to not lose. So with $33.50 in the pot and $11 to call we are getting 3:1 in order to call. So we aren't getting the 4:1 we would need to call. However we can also reasonably assume that villain could bet here with QK/Q9/Q8/QT. So if Villain turned 2p we are 6.82% to chop and 36.36% to win, giving us the odds to call.

Call turn.

 

[mipevi]

Pre and flop as played both fine. Call turn.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

So let's say Hero had led the flop for $7 (74% pot). We don't really expect many villains are folding a diamond draw or the top end of an OESD do we?

No, and why would we want them to? We win money by getting our villains to put money into the pot when they are behind and getting the wrong odds.

I understand the pot control/ stack protection argument but at essentially only 100BB deep against what sounds like a loose and wild V in a sticky game? I'd be more concerned if we were 200+ BB deep and might check this flop then. Or against a tighter player.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Call turn. Absent a diamond hope you get to check back river. Might be stacking V if diamond falls. Folding to just about any sizeable bet on brick river.

 

[Jimulacrum]

No. We typically call turn and re-evaluate river. But Hero put themselves in a bad situation by checking back the flop. It makes the rest of the hand much harder to play.

This is one of the main reasons it's important to bet the flop. Suppose we bet $7 and Villain calls, and then he leads out on the turn for $9. We can be fairly assured that he has us beat with this line. It's a lot stronger than leading out for $4 after we check behind like we're weak. Without the flop bet, Villain could be betting literally anything just as a stab at the pot—and we know that he tends toward unpredictable LAGgy play. We basically blur his range by checking back on the flop, which leaves us having to guess at his hand and merely call the scary turn.

However, by merely calling the turn, we could be making a major mistake: (a) giving a cheap card when we shouldn't (against a bare pair, a bare 7, etc.) or (b) paying too much for a one-card flush draw on short odds (with almost no implied odds) when we're beaten. We'll still be lost when the river comes, unless it's a diamond, and even then we only won't be lost because we'll have the near-nuts. The only part of Villain's range for which calling is correct is when he's swinging at us with air, and we want him to swing again on a brick river. But the part of his range that beats us will take this line for value too, so planning to snap off a two-barrel bluff also means planning to pay off two streets of value. I, for one, don't think that's a worthwhile bet.

Call turn with the intention of checking back or folding if unimproved on the river, or discovering time travel and going back to bet the flop.

 

[ushallnotraise]

Pre and flop as played both fine. Call turn.

Why are checking back aces on a wet board like that? It doesn't make any sense to.

Call turn. Absent a diamond hope you get to check back river. Might be stacking V if diamond falls. Folding to just about any sizeable bet on brick river.

This.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

I think why to NOT check back an overpair here is clear if you put yourself in V's shoes.

Either you opened big over limpers w AK and whiffed and want a cheap show down, or you opened big over limpers with AA KK and are scared of a wet board that smacks a limp/callers range. The mid/ bottom portion of your open range flops monsters or monster draws and cbets for value.*Not saying that's all your range here is, just the way most low stakes opponents are going to think. They'll always put you on AK here.*

If I'm V here my cards are now irrelevant; this board missed you and you want out of the hand cheaply.

 

[mipevi]

Why are checking back aces on a wet board like that? It doesn't make any sense to me.

FYP

On the flop you may be committed, but I am not, so I'm not looking to get stacks in. Because the effective stacks are just deep enough for three streets of value, I will pass on the first one, making this a two street hand.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

FYP

On the flop you may be committed, but I am not, so I'm not looking to get stacks in. Because the effective stacks are just deep enough for three streets of value, I will pass on the first one, making this a two street hand.

Fair enough but I think it's more optimal to get your first Street of value while denying your opponent to freely be able to realize his equity if he does in fact have a draw. Could be wrong but it makes more sense to me to try and get your two streets on flop and turn, if going for two streets, on a draw heavy board with a hand unlikely to improve.

 

[ushallnotraise]

FYP

On the flop you may be committed, but I am not, so I'm not looking to get stacks in. Because the effective stacks are just deep enough for three streets of value, I will pass on the first one, making this a two street hand.

Three streets of value implies that you will be ahead on all three streets. This board is very connected. We aren't value betting when damn near half the deck can slow us down on the turn. Any 6, 7, J, Q, Diamond. That's 22 scare cards on the turn.

Not betting a flop this connected is absolutely a huge leak. You're just automatically assuming the turn and river are coming blank blank and you'll be good.

 

[mipevi]

I think we are on different levels. (y) :thumbsup:

 

[detroitdad]

I think we are on different levels. (y) :thumbsup:

I feel that way a lot when reading these threads

 

[ushallnotraise]

I think we are on different levels. (y) :thumbsup:

Seems that way.