PAHWM - 1/3 200+bb deep w/ AKs (1 Viewer)

[Legend5555]

Game is my now usual 1/3 game. 500 max buy in.

Villain of this hand is an unknown to me. He has not been very noteworthy one way or the other. I would characterize him as a typical rec that limps too much, doesn't raise often enough pre flop, a bit stationy post flop, but also is capable of finding some folds. Not really seen many showdowns from him.

BB is also involved. He plays 6 days a week. Is a bit more knowledgeable, but still overall a fairly typical rec. I did see him fold JJ as an overpair on 763 to a single check raise.

Effective stack: $750

I raise UTG to 15 with
+2 calls.
B (Villain) calls.
BB calls.

Pot: 60
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:

BB checks.

HERO... Bet? If so, sizing and why? Check? If so, why?

 

[grebe]

YUP....betting here for value.

$30 seems about right because we are betting this flop 100% of the time when we raise pre. Sizing up for exploitative reasons is ok too.

 

[Sunshine]

30 is ok (offering 3 to 1) if you're sure you can find a fold when someone hits a draw without much further investment. Very likely to be ahead at the moment, but conceivably have someone on an OESD with JT (does this manage to call pre?) or a heart draw (or, gulp, both).

Since I can't be sure I'll convince myself to auto check/fold on any heart, A or 9 -- I might need to call a small bet before I'm convinced -- I like a little bigger. 45 is where I'd end up.

 

[BukNaked36]

Relatively wet board - bet 45

 

[raynmanas]

I don't like a check here as the pre-flop raiser, dangerous board to get cutesy trappy on and risk getting pushed away on a later street. I like 1/2-2/3 pot, $30-$40. Probably leaning towards $40 to make draws pay.

 

[Burke]

Yeah, I think betting $30 is too small with this board as well. I'd go bigger to $45

 

[grebe]

I can get behind a bigger bet here. Just make sure you are willing to pull that trigger with 77 as well.

If you are betting $45 with a pair of kings, but checking back your weaker holdings, smart players are going to notice. Like I said above, if I raised pre and this flop comes down with 2 opponents I am always betting regardless of holdings, thus the smaller sizing. I expect to get at least one call, and will not be surprised with a check raise.

 

[kirchhausen]

Game is my now usual 1/3 game. 500 max buy in.

Villain of this hand is an unknown to me. He has not been very noteworthy one way or the other. I would characterize him as a typical rec that limps too much, doesn't raise often enough pre flop, a bit stationy post flop, but also is capable of finding some folds. Not really seen many showdowns from him.

BB is also involved. He plays 6 days a week. Is a bit more knowledgeable, but still overall a fairly typical rec. I did see him fold JJ as an overpair on 763 to a single check raise.

Effective stack: $750

I raise UTG to 15 with
+2 calls.
B (Villain) calls.
BB calls.

Pot: 60
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:

BB checks.

HERO... Bet? If so, sizing and why? Check? If so, why?

Bet. Why? It hits your range harder than Vs. How much? your standard raise (probably 2/3 pot, $40) sounds about right.

 

[Legend5555]

Part 2

Game is my now usual 1/3 game. 500 max buy in.

Villain of this hand is an unknown to me. He has not been very noteworthy one way or the other. I would characterize him as a typical rec that limps too much, doesn't raise often enough pre flop, a bit stationy post flop, but also is capable of finding some folds. Not really seen many showdowns from him.

BB is also involved. He plays 6 days a week. Is a bit more knowledgeable, but still overall a fairly typical rec. I did see him fold JJ as an overpair on 763 to a single check raise.

Effective stack: $750

I raise UTG to 15 with
+2 calls.
B (Villain) calls.
BB calls.

Pot: 60
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:

BB checks.
HERO bets $30
+2 calls.
B calls.
BB calls.

Pot: 180
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:

BB checks.

HERO?

Bet again? If so, how much and why? Plan if raised? Plan if called?
Check? If so, plan if a player behind bets? If checks around, river plan?

 

[Burke]

Wouldn't check so can start there. Are you willing to play for stacks at this point? I think I am. With TPTK and nut flush draw

Doubt someone has AA or KK or QQ with no re-raise pf

Losing to KQ and 44 but with still 20% equity. KQ possibly would have raised on flop with wet board. Most concerned about BB I guess with your description of B as sticky.

Lots of potential hands we are beating soundly that would continue with most bets AKo (less likely), AQhh, ?AQo, JThh, JTss, ?JTo, 67hh, A5hh. Maybe Ahxh as well.

Would these players continue with hands that would have floated a flop, but did not improve on turn such as KJ, K10, QJ, Q10 - seems unlikely at this point. Lots of hh hands could have continued on the flop as well.

Sizing is tougher with 2 players left to act I think. I think I bet bigger. Since something like J10hh and 67hh both have 30% equity heads up against our hand. I think I bet pot and expect one fold and one person to either call or push all-in. I think I would call since I could see an all-in shove from 67hh, J10hh, A5hh (hands we beat) as well as KQ and 44 (hands we lose to). If it's B calls and BB pushes all in even more reason to call an all-in I think.

If B folds and BB flats I would hope he checks a river if a non-spade hits. Would likely check back with pot that big.

OK that was my attempt at analysis...I tried.

 

[BukNaked36]

Bet 150

It's decision time. TJ and hearts are still drawing. You have TPTK and nut flush draw.

Need to know raise amount on how to react, but not sure I'm getting away from this.

 

[grebe]

Part 2

Game is my now usual 1/3 game. 500 max buy in.

Villain of this hand is an unknown to me. He has not been very noteworthy one way or the other. I would characterize him as a typical rec that limps too much, doesn't raise often enough pre flop, a bit stationy post flop, but also is capable of finding some folds. Not really seen many showdowns from him.

BB is also involved. He plays 6 days a week. Is a bit more knowledgeable, but still overall a fairly typical rec. I did see him fold JJ as an overpair on 763 to a single check raise.

Effective stack: $750

I raise UTG to 15 with
+2 calls.
B (Villain) calls.
BB calls.

Pot: 60
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:

BB checks.
HERO bets $30
+2 calls.
B calls.
BB calls.

Pot: 180
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:

BB checks.

HERO?

Bet again? If so, how much and why? Plan if raised? Plan if called?
Check? If so, plan if a player behind bets? If checks around, river plan?

Bet again. I looked to go bigger on the turn, maybe 125.

If called, probably call 2 streets good if we don't improve.... Jam river if we catch a K or spade.

If we get check raised, probably call off due to flush draw.

 

[JoeBGo]

Would have bet $50 on the flop
Now that the turn action has been revealed I’m betting $150 and probably not folding to anyones all in.

 

[JustinInMN]

If button is station-y, a bet is mandatory here on the turn as it was on the flop. Hero would be leaving way too much value on the table in way too good a spot by checking. I know this hand started 250BB deep, and hero holds one pair, and if villain leads, it's two pair or a small set, but that's a possibility on pretty much every board.

I think as hero I would stick with half-pot as hero did on the flop. You really are targeting the lesser kings and flush draws for calls. I can get behind sizing up to 2/3 pot here too as well. If villain shoves, I think we can reevaluate (possibly even fold given the sizing), especially because the shove would be so huge, but I'm not checking a board when villain is set up to call so widely.

If called I might check it down at the river unless we improve, especially if called by both villains. If the flush draws bust, we can really only hope to be called by KJ or KT that somehow got here, or maybe someone bluff-catching with a Qx somehow? However, if called by just the big blind (given he's the designated villain in the story) and if we decide his stickness means KJ and KT are in range I'm going to be tempted to exploit his loose calling and go for one more street.

BB is also involved. He plays 6 days a week. Is a bit more knowledgeable, but still overall a fairly typical rec. I did see him fold JJ as an overpair on 763 to a single check raise.

Given this, Hearts are about the only holding that make sense for this player. (cough, nit, cough) I don't think he leaves the gate with any K-hi except for maybe KQs. (Only two combos possible) If he had KQ, maybe he's playing it super careful, but the vast majority of his holdings have to be weighted toward hearts, probably :Ah: :Jh: and :Ah: :Th: for the flush draw and broadway gutter combo. Just not seeing what a player tight enough to fold JJ on a flop would be calling a 5x pfr with? Button may also have a different AKo and is playing carefully I suppose? Maybe he decided to play "cop" on the flop with AQ (with or without hearts) to see if our hero was going to bet two streets?

Bottom line, I think nearly all rivers that don't improve hero are going to lead hero to check unless he wants to make a really exploitive value bet against the designated villain who may not be able to fold KJ or KT.

 

[Kain8]

Aside from improving to top two pair or trips, that's about as good of a turn as you can get. Other people say $125 - $150 for a bet and that's reasonable to me as well.

 

[Sunshine]

Nobody raised the flop bet, so I'm not totally convinced TPTK is behind anyone right now. With 4 players, it's certainly realistic, but not super clear. They could have easily seen it as a continuation bet and, accordingly, stuck around with things other than KQ/44 (Kx? AQ?). Forget KK and QQ, unlikely they're not raising pre AND on the flop since the board is so wet (also K blocker). Even KQ and 44 seem less likely since there wasn't further action with obvious draws. If they somehow got here with Q4, give them whatever they want, then take it back later ...

Nevertheless, they have something and a heart draw or OESD explains a lot. So, price that out.

My reflex was 120, but I wouldn't argue with a bit bigger and 150 might be a better choice. TPTK, 9 outs to the nut flush (even though 4s wouldn't give you the nuts), 5 more to improve somewhat (though Ah would be scary).

 

[stefalopod]

Bigger bet on flop might push out more hands so all you know is anyone with a K or draw would hang around. Maybe even AQ or a Q with runner possibility. Turn doesn't help but you really wanna know where you stand now. The only hands you're really behind are a KQ 2-pair or a set. Both could be reasonable hands to try to just call on flop and trap. But with the hearts and straight out there a dominating hand should probably play that flop pretty strong.

Zero reason yet to think you're behind, or even suspect it. On this turn you've got top-top plus the big draw. Bet 3/4 or full-pot to show strength right now and then (if called) easy all-in if you river a spade. But I don't really want to see another card so I might think about an overbet. If they're slow playing 2-pair or a set and push on me right now I don't like it but have to fold.

If I'm called and the river is a heart or any non-spade straight completing card then I may have to fold to an all-in. The issue with this is that if your opponent likes playing suited...any non-spade completes a straight here. If you think they're not going to call gappers preflop then you can eliminate the 7. But you haven't yet done anything to really push them off a hand so it's totally reasonable that they could be playing a (hearts) suited ace or SCs and chasing at this point.

But there are a couple other questions. Do you think they're sticky enough to call big with a draw? Do they think they're tricky enough to check-raise? Do you think they'll push in on you if they hit their draw? You could make a smaller bet here to keep more options open on the river, though you're opening yourself up to a lot of tricky circumstances if you do.

I kind of want to lock it up now or force them into a bad call. So I'm going to bet $180 of your money here. Maybe even $200.

If they check-raise then you know where you are and the bigger bet here gives you better equity to call. So you make a call-fold decision at that point, probably call. They likely have 44 in that situation so you can hit a spade or king. If you're called, the river is tough because you may have to check a heart or an A. So bet bigger and decide the hand now.

 

[Legend5555]

The next part will have to wait until at least Saturday. I am moving today and just won't have the time.

 

[Legend5555]

Part 3

Game is my now usual 1/3 game. 500 max buy in.

Villain of this hand is an unknown to me. He has not been very noteworthy one way or the other. I would characterize him as a typical rec that limps too much, doesn't raise often enough pre flop, a bit stationy post flop, but also is capable of finding some folds. Not really seen many showdowns from him.

BB is also involved. He plays 6 days a week. Is a bit more knowledgeable, but still overall a fairly typical rec. I did see him fold JJ as an overpair on 763 to a single check raise.

Effective stack: $750

I raise UTG to 15 with
+2 calls.
B (Villain) calls.
BB calls.

Pot: 60
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:

BB checks.
HERO bets $30
+2 calls.
B calls.
BB calls.

Pot: 180
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:

BB checks.
HERO checks.
+2 checks.
B bets $25.
BB calls.

HERO?

 

[Burke]

do we get to know your thought process and plan on checking since I don’t think anyone suggested it?

I’m bad at poker…I’d still bloat the pot with a pot-sized raise.

 

[JustinInMN]

So while I said a bet on the turn is mandatory, I can come with a few good reasons to check.

1) Pot control. Hero can call any bet confidently and does not want to get priced off of a draw this good. AK is still going to be the best hand a lot.
2) Multi way pot dynamics: If this is still a 5-way pot, chances are higher than usual hero needs to improve to win.

As played I could go either way. Hero could flat here for pot control and go for loose overcalls. That will pay off if he improves on the river. Hero could raise here and find out if there's anything to fear between him and when it gets back to the button.

I think I still prefer betting this out, but I am now interested how this goes with an action I didn't consider.

 

[Kain8]

HERO checks.

Really curious as to the thought process by checking initially on this ideal turn for the Hero. With the button leading out into the field after being checked to, he's got something already and not a draw I feel. Primarily I'd be looking at the very real possibility of the button having KQx and wanted a safe turn before piling in the money.

 

[Marc Hedrick]

do we get to know your thought process and plan on checking since I don’t think anyone suggested it?

I’m bad at poker…I’d still bloat the pot with a pot-sized raise.

I'm bad too, but my favorite option is a pot sized raise here as well, to go with.

 

[trever]

I'm not buying that you are behind here. Unless B is getting super tricky and trying to entice a raise, this weak bet on such a draw heavy board, doesn't scare me.

There are a lot of river cards that you'll hate, so you can play this conservatively and just call. Personally I'd advocate raising it up and putting the other players on the spot. $175 on top

 

[Burke]

I feel like if one the two villains have KQ they are making quite a large mistake with a very small turn bet followed by a flat on this board.

I'm trying to figure out the $25 bet tbh. Feels like that player doesn't know what his bet is intended to do or maybe he's trying to "figure out where he is". AQhh? A10hh? J10hh? Js10s? making a bet that does two things in "setting a price" as well as possible value. Maybe misguided in thinking that with this bet the hand will get checked to him on the river? Honestly I think that bet kinda eliminates 44 and KQ from B's possible holdings.

My thought would be BB is also on a draw with his flat.

 

[stefalopod]

View attachment 985760

Really curious as to the thought process by checking initially on this ideal turn for the Hero. With the button leading out into the field after being checked to, he's got something already and not a draw I feel. Primarily I'd be looking at the very real possibility of the button having KQx and wanted a safe turn before piling in the money.

You think KQ doesn’t bet or raise that flop with 2 hearts out there? Can’t imagine. Maybe a suited K4 calls a raise 3-way and flops too and bottom. And maybe calls a half-pot bet. But you still have to assume a flopped 2-pair on a flush and straight draw board has to try to win right then….right?

 

[Legend5555]

Thought process...

So while I said a bet on the turn is mandatory, I can come with a few good reasons to check.

1) Pot control. Hero can call any bet confidently and does not want to get priced off of a draw this good. AK is still going to be the best hand a lot.
2) Multi way pot dynamics: If this is still a 5-way pot, chances are higher than usual hero needs to improve to win.

 

[Marc Hedrick]

I don't know what the $25 bet is trying to accomplish, but it should be treated as a check.

 

[Legend5555]

Part 4

Game is my now usual 1/3 game. 500 max buy in.

Villain of this hand is an unknown to me. He has not been very noteworthy one way or the other. I would characterize him as a typical rec that limps too much, doesn't raise often enough pre flop, a bit stationy post flop, but also is capable of finding some folds. Not really seen many showdowns from him.

BB is also involved. He plays 6 days a week. Is a bit more knowledgeable, but still overall a fairly typical rec. I did see him fold JJ as an overpair on 763 to a single check raise.

Effective stack: $750

I raise UTG to 15 with
+2 calls.
B (Villain) calls.
BB calls.

Pot: 60
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:

BB checks.
HERO bets $30
+2 calls.
B calls.
BB calls.

Pot: 180
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:

BB checks.
HERO checks.
+2 checks.
B bets $25.
BB calls.
HERO raises to $125.
B calls.
BB folds.

Pot: 455
Eff Stack: 610
Flop:

HERO sizing?

 

[Kain8]

Take him to value town, but in a way that if he miraculously backed into a flush / hit a gutshot, he could raise you back. If he flats, well, still better than going for the check-raise and having him check behind.

$125 - $150 seems good.