- Jul 15, 2019
- Reaction score
I disagree, I think KQ makes some sense, though I generally agree it might bet more on turn. But I think KJ makes a lot of sense. And while a set is a bit unlikely, I don't put it past anyone in this game to play it weirdly. Though, it's less common than the 2 pair.Again, the only 2 pair that makes sense here is QJ because anything else is going to play stronger on the turn when checked around. It can't be a set because JJ folds to your check-raise and 444 or 555 don't want to see the river. It's definitely weird for you to have a flush here, which is why they don't have a flush–there's only one other plausible combo. So your best chance at any value is a weak K.
While everyone else is dismissing the $25 bet, I think that's the whole story. It's kind of a situation where it's hard to understand so it's easy to ignore. But it is a big part of the action in the hand because he could have closed the action on the turn with a check but instead decided to put in that small bet, pricing in every draw and opening himself to a check-raise.
I just don't see any reasonable K or better betting that small there. He's got to have a hand that he thinks just might win right now but can call vs a check-raise. So that's either a small king, a nut-flush draw, a combo draw, or a flush draw with a pair (that means his draw are AXh, QJh, QTh, JTh, or T9h). Then with the Js river the only hands that can even think about calling a jam are QJh or T9h.
Maybe we disagree but I just don't see how he gets to the river with KQ or KJ as played. Same with K5, K4, Q5, Q4 if you think those are possibly in his range. None of those hands put out that tiny bet because it only makes sense to check or bet big. Honestly, I really don't even see any of those K hands putting out that bet. So it has to narrow it down to the heart draws plus the T9s combo draw.
Again, I'm hoping to learn that I'm wrong (because then I'm learning) but what I keep coming to is that the only hand he could possibly have as played is AXh. And there are only a few others that he could have had at the river.
T9hh, T9ss, and AThh also make sense and are never folding river. I don't think I get called by 1 pair unless it's specifically AK (which players on this game are VERY capable of having since most of them don't 3 bet it). I think KT folds river unless I go really small, and I think even AQhh is going to fold. So I don't think there is enough 1 pair stuff to get value from.