J8s, late possition deep stacked

DrStrange

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Playing 1-2 live, nine handed. It is about five hours into the session. I'll put in more information than normal since my game is going to be new to some folks here. This is a bi-monthly home game. It has been running for about seven years. We live in the middle of no where Texas - the player pool is small. Most of the villains have hundreds or thousands of hours of table time with each other. Villain reads are vital to the hand analysis, as they should be for all home game threads. The table tonight is ultra loose and a little more aggressive than "normal". This game allows rebuys to match the big stack at the table. On the right night there will be $10,000+ in play at the end of the night, tonight we have ~$5,000 in play at this point. Big pots fought over one pair hands are common. Top pair/top kicker is nearly the nut in the minds of most of the villains here tonight.

Cast of characters: (less details now, more when the field thins.)

UTG+1 is Crazy with a minty fresh $300. He has been felted twice the last ten hands and is likely on monkey tilt. Hero was one of the winners (stacking Crazy last hand with AA vs Crazy's 97o on a 9 6 4 flop for $175) I call this villain crazy because that is how he plays. Crazy likes to gamble and is happy to give up an edge to get a big bet in. Known to make blind bets - Large blind bets, straddle etc.

MP1 is the prototype calling station playing $250.

MP2 is a loose, semi passive / fit fold guy who is a modest winner over the years. He has $500, but should have more due to some poor luck. Might be a little tilty due to losing half his stack in the last few orbits.

MP3 is a hyper loose LAGtard with $300. Spews money like crazy, though he wins more pots than almost any one at the table. He has busted several times and left the table once but is back for one more try.

Hero is CO with $900. Hero is the tightest player at the table by a wide margin. Everyone know this but will play vs Hero's raises anyway because Hero will play big pots if they get lucky and hit. Hero has been running hot the last hour and opening his range due to stack depth.

Button is a competent LAG playing $1,000, quite loose by most standards. He plays preflop hands backwards - rarely raising with big pairs but might raise with lesser pairs or connecting / suited cards. Bought in a lot but has made a comeback. Maybe will play a little wider and more aggressively due to this.

SB is the Alpha Male playing $1,100 (and still very behind for the night). This guy looks at poker as a form of male dominance and HE IS the Alpha Male. A pure blooded LAGtard, he is one of the biggest losers in the game but thinks he is a long run winner.

BB is newish for this game. Older lawyer, big bets with lots of air but not really insane. I can't tell if he will be a winner but I think not. He has $200 and is bleeding chips. Quite drunk.

UTG is a tricky trappy calling station. He has $450 in his stack. Has been cranky lately - no idea why.

The hand:

Crazy looks at one card and bets $5, then goes to the cooler to get a beer before seeing his second card. UTG calls $2 (yes in this order) MP1 and MP3 call $5. Hero to act holding :jh: :8h:. Fold call or raise? If raising, how much? Hero expects crazy will call a <$50 raise blind but might want to come look if the bet is for more money. I doubt crazy folds anything hopeful (and he has a low standard for hopeful). The rest of the table knows this and is eager to play a big pot with Crazy.

DrStrange
 
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atomiktoaster

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Do you think you can make it to the flop with just a call, or is somebody gonna raise just to get a shot at crazy's stack no matter what? As a tight player, J8s isn't a hand for a big pre-flop raise to me, but $100 on the table is pretty much the limit of my experience, so I'm definitely out of my depth here...
 

Mr Tree

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Im very confused on why hero wants to get involved with a bunch of loose callers here with a subpar hand. A raise will bring action still and you can't count on bluffing the flop with this cast of characters. No value in a raise so call and hope for a cheap flop if you're feeling froggy but I'd rather just fold. Get a true drawing hand against this crowd. I would feel infinitely better with J10
 

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It's possible nobody will believe me, but I lean toward a fold pf. We've got competent lag on the button and Alpha in SB who both have us covered and are probably equally eager to isolate Crazy. If I do call the $5 pf, I'm tossing the hand to a raise. Yes we're deep and may win a big pot if we get position on one of these fish after the flop, but I'd rather have 2 broadway cards or something a bit stronger in this situation.

edit: i see mr tree beat me to it. :p
 

grandgnu

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I'm in the fold pre camp, this is a trouble holding and there's too many players involved. Seems like a long-term chip burner to me given the wide gap between your two cards (when you make a straight is it good?) and your likelihood of running into a bigger flush since players love to play their K3 and Ax s00ted holdings
 

Chippy McChiperson

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You guys are a bunch of nits. And what's this about folding J8 suited pre Courage:rolleyes: let's make it $25 to go and build up a decent size pot with good position.
 

MoscowRadio

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You guys are a bunch of nits. And what's this about folding J8 suited pre Courage:rolleyes: let's make it $25 to go and build up a decent size pot with good position.

While I like this attitude in spirit, I don't think I could do this. I'm maybe 47% folding, 50% calling, and 3% raising this hand.
 

courage

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Chippy has the idea. Just convince yourself it's AKs pre and play it that way. We may have to 4 bet to see a flop to maintain control.
 

onerand

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Raise to try to knock out button. Fun hand to play deep, but not with out of position - you are hoping button folds and SB calls. Against everyone else this will not be deep stacked post flop. Folding is also fine.
 

Mr Tree

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I think people are putting too much faith in position here. Your holding is bad and even if you hit this is the type of hand that felts someone....usually the holder. Meanwhile if you DONT hit you are playing inferior cards against loose/tilting players. A single bluff will not take this pot down and you will likely have to fire two to three times with probably nothing while hoping your opponents haven't actually hit something.

Pass and wait for a better chance. Against this grouping I feel like drawing hands which give you an opportunity to play for value are far better than bluffing hands.
 

Quicksilver-75

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Im very confused on why hero wants to get involved with a bunch of loose callers here with a subpar hand. A raise will bring action still and you can't count on bluffing the flop with this cast of characters. No value in a raise so call and hope for a cheap flop if you're feeling froggy but I'd rather just fold. Get a true drawing hand against this crowd. I would feel infinitely better with J10

^this. That is the kind of hand I hope to play for as low a cost as possible, late in position.
 

DrStrange

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*** On to the flop ***

Hero calls $5 planning to fold to any serious bet. {In hindsight, I am thinking fold > call}

Everyone at the table calls $5. Nine handed, $45 in the pot.

Flop: :tc: :6d: :7s:

Three checks to Crazy. Crazy is still getting his beer and still hasn't seen his second card. Crazy bets $5. MP1 and MP3 call, MP2 folds. Action to Hero. Fold call or raise? If raising how much and why? Hero to act holding :jh: :8h:.

DrStrange
 

Mr Tree

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Easy call. Any nine is the nuts and you are about 1 in 11 to hit it on the next street and are getting exactly 12 to 1 express odds. Given the hidden nature of your hand your implied odds are much higher. A pair might also win it but I'd keep the betting very light with just hitting a J. I'd stick with a call and hope to felt someone on a hidden straight.

Against another group of players I may very well raise here, but with this group I think a position raise will be taken as a steal and likely get a reraise. With nothing but a gut shot straight draw I'm not looking to build this pot.
 
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Not sure I want to play this hand. What could you want on the flip to proceed? At best will call and. Hope no one raises

Bevermind
 
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atomiktoaster

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I think tree has it right. Call and hope for the big pay day 9. You aren't gonna buy the pot from these guys.
 

fish72s

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I think you are justified in calling more than $5 given you are drawing to the nuts and the big implied odds when someone else has an 8.
 

DrStrange

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*** On to the turn ***

Hero calls. Button ponders a bit, says "its only $5" and calls. The blinds fold, UTG calls. Six way action, $75 in the pot.

Turn: < :tc: :6d: :7s: > :2h:

UTG checks, Crazy bets $15. I am not sure he has looked at his second card but let's assume he did look. MP1 (calling station) calls. MP3 folds. Action on Hero - fold, call or raise if raising how much?

Recap of players in the hand:

Button, competent LAG playing $1,000.
UTG, tricky trappy calling station playing $450
Crazy, manic possibly tilted playing $300
MP1, calling station playing $250
Hero is playing $900

DrStrange
 

grandgnu

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Fold pre, fold flop, fold turn. Don't chase gutshots. Your flop call you're essentially depending on a 9 to fall to hit the nuts, so you're going after a 4-outer (provided someone else doesn't have a 9 in their hand) further complicating matters here is your ability to get paid off IF the 9 falls. You're then depending on one of the other players to hold one of the three remaining 8's and pay you off.

This is a money burner of a hand, maybe not a HUGE money burner each time you play it, but long-term your ROI doesn't look good imo
 

Mr Tree

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Fold pre, fold flop, fold turn. Don't chase gutshots. Your flop call you're essentially depending on a 9 to fall to hit the nuts, so you're going after a 4-outer (provided someone else doesn't have a 9 in their hand) further complicating matters here is your ability to get paid off IF the 9 falls. You're then depending on one of the other players to hold one of the three remaining 8's and pay you off.

This is a money burner of a hand, maybe not a HUGE money burner each time you play it, but long-term your ROI doesn't look good imo

I'd argue folding the turn is a mistake for $5. Might only be a gunshot but you are slightly better than 1-11 to make it and getting $12 to $1 odds without even considering implied odds. You hit the nine and you have the flat nuts. Not saying I'd see it for much more, but for $5 into $60 the math says its a mistake to fold there.
 

Mr Tree

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*** On to the turn ***

Hero calls. Button ponders a bit, says "its only $5" and calls. The blinds fold, UTG calls. Six way action, $75 in the pot.

Turn: < :tc: :6d: :7s: > :2h:

UTG checks, Crazy bets $15. I am not sure he has looked at his second card but let's assume he did look. MP1 (calling station) calls. MP3 folds. Action on Hero - fold, call or raise if raising how much?

Recap of players in the hand:

Button, competent LAG playing $1,000.
UTG, tricky trappy calling station playing $450
Crazy, manic possibly tilted playing $300
MP1, calling station playing $250
Hero is playing $900

DrStrange

Let's examine each play carefully here.

Fold

The math supports this play. We are 1 in 10.5 to make a straight we know will be good. We could also make a pair that might be good. We need to call $15 to make $105 which is exactly 7:1. Good odds but our odds are even longer. But also bothersome are the LAG in the button and also the early player known to be trappy. Still it does feel at least somewhat weak in a place where the investment is still relatively small for a chance (albeit small) to take someone's stack.

Call - no need to restate the math. The principle draw on this hand is how well hidden it is. If you make it you could stack someone like monkey tilt boy. The biggest scare to me are the players left behind me. I could very easily see button LAG deciding it is time to raise into a $120 pot where no one is taking a lead. This is not a hand we can take into escalation.

Raise - not a fan of this play. You'd probably have to push to around $100 to take this one . More investment than I wanted to make with such a weak hand. Also with the current board and turn it looks exactly like the steal it is which is also problematic. Competent deep LAG may decide to put you to the test, trappy blind player may have succeeded in trapping, but of particular worry to me is monkey tilt boy. I think even if it folds around to him he is going to be sure you are stealing and he is definitely feeling antsy. If he has ANYTHING we have now set him up to push all in and I think he's the type to do just that.

In short I think folding is a fair option here because there is a good chance there will be a raise from behind you. A flat is still ok here on the hope of felting someone but I'm becoming less and less a fan of holding on. I do not like the raise at all give the players, your position, and the fact that the board is so dry it's going to look like the steal it is.
 

guinness

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Dead money on the table. You are late position and table image is tight-tastic. I would absolutely bump to $65. River anything $175 bet.

Edit: River pairs the board. Chippy calls both streets. His J9 > J8. Walk of shame to kitchen.
 
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grandgnu

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I'd argue folding the turn is a mistake for $5. Might only be a gunshot but you are slightly better than 1-11 to make it and getting $12 to $1 odds without even considering implied odds. You hit the nine and you have the flat nuts. Not saying I'd see it for much more, but for $5 into $60 the math says its a mistake to fold there.

I think you'd be over-estimating implied odds possibly. Making our hand likely kills our action except from a player who has one of the remaining three 8's in their hand. That's even IF there is another 8 out there.
 

atomiktoaster

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Three questions:

What's the read on button LAG's hand? Why no aggression so far? If his hand is speculative too, the deuce doesn't make him any more likely to raise.

Does Hero's tight table image register with the other players? Between the crappy board and the tiltyness and stickyness from the rest of the table, a bluff seems likely to backfire.

If the 9 does hit, what do the villains need to hold to pay off big (besides the other 8s)? Some possible options: a set, pocket Qs or better, a ten with Q+ kicker, some weird bullshit two pair hand (76?), middle pair with an ace? Are any of those hands within the villains ranges?
 

Mr Tree

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I think you'd be over-estimating implied odds possibly. Making our hand likely kills our action except from a player who has one of the remaining three 8's in their hand. That's even IF there is another 8 out there.

You don't need implied odds though.

1-11 odds on making nine
12-1 EXPRESS odds

Implied odds are just gravy
 

DrStrange

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Several players would get in trouble with JT or even A7.

I'd put Button on a really marginal hand - say A6 or K9.

People interpret Hero's tightness as a lack of manhood (yes, really) Most do not have a clue why Hero is dangerous because he is out of the action most of the time.

The calling stations pose a threat. I could see either one of them holding 98 and slow playing it late into the hand. Not the most likely holding, but certainly possible.

DrStrange
 

Schmendr1ck

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I can buy the arguments for a call or a fold here, though I lean toward a fold. It just seems unlikely that we're getting much more in the pot if we spike a nine. And if we get raised on the turn, we have to fold.

Doc, these threads make me want to play in your fish tank...er, game so incredibly badly. :)
 

fish72s

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Without the Jack I think this is an easy fold. I'm never raising here even though it might be tempting. Too many people in the hand and somebody is going to call or raise. I agree that a slow-played straight is well in the range of UTG or button. Even if they don't have it, they still may be tempted to steal with 78 type hands.
But I think we are underestimating the implied odds here. Hitting the 9 is unlikely but I actually think it is likely that someone has an 8. There are 7 unseen cards between the other 4 players and 68, T8, 78 are exactly the type of hands to flat call small bets. Same goes for the 79 hands so lets assume there are only 3 nines left. That's 14:1 and we are getting 7, 8 or 9 to 1 direct odds. But implied odds could be as high as 30 to 1 or better. Halve that for when there is no 8 out there and subtract for when we get raised off our draw. I think that's enough to shell out $15.
 
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