Tourney How do you figure out if an add-on is a good value? (1 Viewer)

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I’ve been playing a tournament they call a $50/50/50 - your $50 buyin gets you a 15k stack. Then you’re allowed up to two $50 15k rebuys. But if you’ve got one rebuy still available to you at the break (and you’re still alive, obviously) you can get a $50 20k add-on instead.
I prefer to try to fire a single bullet. I’ll rebuy if I get knocked out early, but I haven’t bought the addon, because I’m convinced it’s a suckers bet. But I’m not sure how to calculate that.
The starting blinds are 100/100, they go up every 20 minutes to 200, 400, 600, 800, so they’re up to 600/1200 when you come back from break with or without that add on.
Simple math tells me you’re paying around 30 cents per big blind in the first level, and that those add on chips are costing you around $3 per big blind at the break. But I’m pretty sure those chips are worth more by that point, anyway, right?
Not sure what other information helps. They typically get around 40 runners and I’d say they average somewhere between 2 and 2.5 total “buys” per person - there’s usually around 1.5 million chips in play.
But enough with the numbers. Whether I go into that break with 12k, 18k, or 24k, that 20k add-on isn’t going to make me deep. Yeah, it could double my stack size, but it’s still just an extra 16bb - I don’t want to pay for that; I’d rather just win a hand or two. Am I crazy? Is there any way to quantify this?
 
Simple math tells me you’re paying around 30 cents per big blind in the first level, and that those add on chips are costing you around $3 per big blind at the break.
Instead of comparing it to the cost of your original buy-in (30c/bb vs $3/bb or whatever), convert your current stack size into a $xx/bb cost at the current bb level. That's the actual 'value' of your current stack. The numbers will typically be much closer, and you'll get a better feel for the true 'value' of an optional add-on purchase.
 
Instead of comparing it to the cost of your original buy-in (30c/bb vs $3/bb or whatever), convert your current stack size into a $xx/bb cost at the current bb level. That's the actual 'value' of your current stack. The numbers will typically be much closer, and you'll get a better feel for the true 'value' of an optional add-on purchase.
Okay, so say I bought once for $50, and I have 20k going into the break. So, double my money in, double my stack - nice round numbers, what do they tell me? Do bbs or average stacks or payouts help me figure things out, or if it just about how many dollars I feel like taking out of my pocket?
 
  • $50 buyin gets you a 15k stack
  • allowed up to two $50 15k rebuys
  • if you’ve got one rebuy still available to you at the break...you can get a $50 20k add-on
  • starting blinds are 100/100.....they’re up to 600/1200......at add on
Reconfigured your post for my easier reference.

If you bought in once for $50 and currently have a T20K stack (16.7bb), it's comparative "value" is roughly $3/bb. A 20K add-on for $50 has a similar value ($50/16.7=$3), so in terms of
'buying' chips at that rate, it's the same rate you've paid so far.

Looking at two extremes (often helpful in making a mid-range decision easier), what if you had a) doubled-up twice, or b) found yourself really short-stacked (5bb) at break? Let's run the numbers twice for each scenario -- once with no re-buy, and a second time with a re-buy.

no re-buy ($50 total cost)
a) T60K stack (50bb), now valued at $1/bb
b) T6K stack (5bb), now valued at $10/bb

one re-buy ($100 total cost)
a) T60K stack (50bb), now valued at $2/bb
b) T6K stack (5bb), now valued at $20/bb

Those numbers (somewhat) directly compare to the cost of buying additional chips (priced at $3 per bb). So if you are a big stack without re-buying ($1/bb value), a $3/bb add-on doesn't make much sense financially --- those extra 16.7bb cost three times each what your current 50bb stack is worth.

And from a strictly value perspective, a $3/bb add-on is a good price if your current stack has cost you $20/bb so far at this point in the tournament (currently short-stacked with a re-buy). It's a 'relatively' small price to pay to help 'protect' your $100 investment. Adding on lowers your average $/bb cost, so it makes financial sense in that regard.

However, those are both strictly comparative costs.... and do not take into consideration if the extra bb included in the add-on are actually helpful in getting you a return on your investment (reaching the money). Determining that is harder, but not impossible to apply some helpful math. All other things being equal (never the case, but you have to start somewhere) -- your raw chances of cashing are (your bb count divided by the total bb count). This assumes a lot (equal players, ability to wield different stack sizes with equal effectiveness, etc.), but generally speaking, your percentage of the total chips in play equates to your chances of winning money.

40 runners and I’d say they average somewhere between 2 and 2.5 total “buys” per person - there’s usually around 1.5 million chips in play.
So we know the rough count of total chips (T1.5M), and can get an estimation of the available prize money ($5000). It would be best if we could determine the actual payout schedule but let's assume for now that a min-cash will cover our total maximum expenses. We can also determine the average stack, if we know how many players are remaining (with all 40 entrants alive, the average stack is T37500). So let's look at our example of two extremes, and see how they pan out:

If sitting with 50bb on a single buy-in, you already have an above-average stack, and your estimated chance of cashing (with no add-on) is 4%. With an add-on, your chances of cashing increase to about 5.3%. To me, the difference between 50bb and 68bb is pretty minimal in terms of how it will affect my play, and doubling my total cost exposure for less than an extra 1.5% of cash equity is not worth it.

At the other extreme, if sitting with just 5bb on two buy-ins (initial and one re-buy), you have so few chips as to have almost no chance of cashing (0.4%). With the add-on, that increases to roughly 1.7%, or more than 4 times greater. The increase in your total cost exposure is 50% ($150 vs $100 already invested), so it seems to make financial sense. And playing on with 21.7 bb with the add-on (versus just 5bb and very limited options) seems well worth it, as that is enough chips to maneuver and improve without resorting to desperation tactics.

Generally speaking, it would appear that being extremely short-stacked is a good candidate for an add-on, and an above-average stack is not. In addition, the less money you have invested initially, the less compelling an add-on will be.


So......a $50 below-average 20K stack (16.7bb) facing an add-on decision of 16.7bb for $50. What to do? The generalizations above would tend to make me think it's probably a good bet, but close. If I've already re-bought once, I think it's an easy yes, but I didn't run the actual numbers for these scenarios to confirm.
 
Reconfigured your post for my easier reference.

If you bought in once for $50 and currently have a T20K stack (16.7bb), it's comparative "value" is roughly $3/bb. A 20K add-on for $50 has a similar value ($50/16.7=$3), so in terms of
'buying' chips at that rate, it's the same rate you've paid so far.

Looking at two extremes (often helpful in making a mid-range decision easier), what if you had a) doubled-up twice, or b) found yourself really short-stacked (5bb) at break? Let's run the numbers twice for each scenario -- once with no re-buy, and a second time with a re-buy.

no re-buy ($50 total cost)
a) T60K stack (50bb), now valued at $1/bb
b) T6K stack (5bb), now valued at $10/bb

one re-buy ($100 total cost)
a) T60K stack (50bb), now valued at $2/bb
b) T6K stack (5bb), now valued at $20/bb

Those numbers (somewhat) directly compare to the cost of buying additional chips (priced at $3 per bb). So if you are a big stack without re-buying ($1/bb value), a $3/bb add-on doesn't make much sense financially --- those extra 16.7bb cost three times each what your current 50bb stack is worth.

And from a strictly value perspective, a $3/bb add-on is a good price if your current stack has cost you $20/bb so far at this point in the tournament (currently short-stacked with a re-buy). It's a 'relatively' small price to pay to help 'protect' your $100 investment. Adding on lowers your average $/bb cost, so it makes financial sense in that regard.

However, those are both strictly comparative costs.... and do not take into consideration if the extra bb included in the add-on are actually helpful in getting you a return on your investment (reaching the money). Determining that is harder, but not impossible to apply some helpful math. All other things being equal (never the case, but you have to start somewhere) -- your raw chances of cashing are (your bb count divided by the total bb count). This assumes a lot (equal players, ability to wield different stack sizes with equal effectiveness, etc.), but generally speaking, your percentage of the total chips in play equates to your chances of winning money.


So we know the rough count of total chips (T1.5M), and can get an estimation of the available prize money ($5000). It would be best if we could determine the actual payout schedule but let's assume for now that a min-cash will cover our total maximum expenses. We can also determine the average stack, if we know how many players are remaining (with all 40 entrants alive, the average stack is T37500). So let's look at our example of two extremes, and see how they pan out:

If sitting with 50bb on a single buy-in, you already have an above-average stack, and your estimated chance of cashing (with no add-on) is 4%. With an add-on, your chances of cashing increase to about 5.3%. To me, the difference between 50bb and 68bb is pretty minimal in terms of how it will affect my play, and doubling my total cost exposure for less than an extra 1.5% of cash equity is not worth it.

At the other extreme, if sitting with just 5bb on two buy-ins (initial and one re-buy), you have so few chips as to have almost no chance of cashing (0.4%). With the add-on, that increases to roughly 1.7%, or more than 4 times greater. The increase in your total cost exposure is 50% ($150 vs $100 already invested), so it seems to make financial sense. And playing on with 21.7 bb with the add-on (versus just 5bb and very limited options) seems well worth it, as that is enough chips to maneuver and improve without resorting to desperation tactics.

Generally speaking, it would appear that being extremely short-stacked is a good candidate for an add-on, and an above-average stack is not. In addition, the less money you have invested initially, the less compelling an add-on will be.


So......a $50 below-average 20K stack (16.7bb) facing an add-on decision of 16.7bb for $50. What to do? The generalizations above would tend to make me think it's probably a good bet, but close. If I've already re-bought once, I think it's an easy yes, but I didn't run the actual numbers for these scenarios to confirm.
Thanks for the thoughts, Dave. I hadn’t though much about the “protecting your investment” aspect of the add-on. Mostly because I guess I think of these fast shortstack tournaments as such a terrible investment anyway. And no doubt, this one is something of a donkfest, but I guess that attitude doesn’t help - if you’re gonna play, you need to plan on winning.

Any thoughts on the idea of just starting with 30k or 45k? It seems like a viable strategy to me, but I haven’t seen anybody do it yet (I’ve only played it four times so far, and I only know what’s happened at my table, so who knows.)
 
If offered the chance to start with a double stack (and otherwise planning on re-buying if I busted with a single stack), I'd absolutely go with more chips at the start.

If the typical event is indeed 2x to 2.5x, it sounds like most are putting in $100 or more anyway, and I think having all the chips at once can be an advantage in the hands of a player who knows how to use them.
 
I don’t like like tourneys with add-ons. I don’t think there are any events that use them at the WSOP now.
 
I don’t like like tourneys with add-ons. I don’t think there are any events that use them at the WSOP now.
I’ve always felt the same way. In fact, the first time I played it was by mistake - I didn’t realize it was an addon/rebuy. But it’s on a convenient night for me, and I’ve done well in it so far, so my feelings are beginning to change.
I think because it’s a fast format to begin with, combined with the security blanket of the rebuys, people just play it like crazed donkeys. Which isn’t optimal, but probably exploitable?
It’s not my favorite tournament format by a long shot, but it’s an interesting one, and maybe even a bit more fun than the grind of a deep format.
 
ICM has the answer! It’s able to convert chip stack to dollar value. If 20k gives your stack an extra $50, it’s worth it! If not, it’s not.

In general, the shorter stacked you are, the more valuable additional chips are.

It isn’t fun to plug everyone’s stack in for an exact answer...but rule of thumb I would go with is if you’re below average stack then it’s worth it. If you’re above average stack then not. It’s also completely independent of what the blind levels are...that doesn’t matter at all.
 
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So we know the rough count of total chips (T1.5M), and can get an estimation of the available prize money ($5000).
Yeah, not quite, though. This isn't a home game. This is a New Hampshire poker room, where they operate under the charity laws, so the house takes about 20% - The average prize pool on these is in the $4000 range with 4-5 getting paid
 
It’s also completely independent of what the blind levels are...that doesn’t matter at all.
I'd take exception to that last part. If I'm sitting on only 1bb and can add-on another 10bb (not an unusual amount) but it requires doubling my investment, I'm pretty skeptical that playing with 11bb for twice the money is worth the increase in my cashing chances according to the math. At some point there has to be a law of diminishing returns because the stack is simply too small to be effective.
 
Reconfigured *your* post for my easier reference.

being extremely short-stacked is a good candidate for an add-on, and an above-average stack is not.

Sorry but it's not even 8 in the morning here yet and I can understand this :p
 
Lol I played in a 40 person tournament in Amsterdam a few nights ago. Rebuys for the first hour, addon at the end. There were 63 rebuys and 35 Addons. Talk about a donkfest! I didn’t rebuy (first hand pocket 8’s hit a set, tripled up) but I did the addon. Crazy play continued even after the feeding frenzy. Didn’t money but it was an experience. English was not the official language at the table.
 
Lol I played in a 40 person tournament in Amsterdam a few nights ago. Rebuys for the first hour, addon at the end. There were 63 rebuys and 35 Addons. Talk about a donkfest! I didn’t rebuy (first hand pocket 8’s hit a set, tripled up) but I did the addon. Crazy play continued even after the feeding frenzy. Didn’t money but it was an experience. English was not the official language at the table.
I assume the language of crazy poker is somewhat international, and you had plenty of laughs?
Yeah these kind of tournaments are an experience closer to my .25/.50 home game, than what I’m usually looking for in a casino tournament, but what the hell, why not give them a shot and try to figure them out.
 
I'm in the camp that feels if you're short stacked, an add-on is beneficial, if you're well above average then it's not as beneficial. I don't look at the BB value of my current stack as much as the dollar per total chip value. If I buy into my weekly go-to tourney, and it costs me $40 for 20k in chips, and the add-on at break is T10k chips for $10, I'm getting a good price to add-on.

For instance, if it were shortly before the rebuy period ended, and I was willing to pay $40 for T20 in chips (on a rebuy), then why wouldn't I (5 minutes later) be willing to spend $10 to get T10 in chips?

I try to have a mindset of winning the event, so if having a slightly bigger stack gives me more wiggle room and a greater likelihood of winning it all, the add-on is beneficial (worth it).
 
I try to have a mindset of winning the event, so if having a slightly bigger stack gives me more wiggle room and a greater likelihood of winning it all, the add-on is beneficial (worth it).
This is what I’m trying to weigh. Because I’m of the mindset that if I can win or cash on a single $50 buyin, when everybody else was in for $100 or $150, then that’s a level of profitibilty that’s worth pursuing.
There’s no doubt that the add on gives me a better chance of cashing, but if it doesn’t increase my chances proportional to the additional cost (ie twice as much, if I’m only in for one buy-in.) then is it worth it?
 
This is what I’m trying to weigh. Because I’m of the mindset that if I can win or cash on a single $50 buyin, when everybody else was in for $100 or $150, then that’s a level of profitibilty that’s worth pursuing.
There’s no doubt that the add on gives me a better chance of cashing, but if it doesn’t increase my chances proportional to the additional cost (ie twice as much, if I’m only in for one buy-in.) then is it worth it?

Well, if your chances of cashing are say 10% without the add-on, and 15% with the add-on, and cashing an additional 5% of the time will net X amount of extra dollars into your BR, then it's worth it (or not) based on what your perceived % of cashing with and without the add-on, and how much cashing adds to the BR.

I think a good rule of thumb is the short stacked theory. If short, do it, if you're sitting on a monster stack, don't. This is also very dependent on the specific structure, etc...

In my weekly $40 game, with 20k starting stacks. Even if I'm at 40k, I tend to do the $10 add-on to bring me up to 50k in chips. I'm often sitting on 80+k at the break, and in those instances I don't add-on. Though I had a guy once argue that if you're gonna win the event, you'll get your add-on money back anyway...
 
I assume the language of crazy poker is somewhat international, and you had plenty of laughs?
Yeah these kind of tournaments are an experience closer to my .25/.50 home game, than what I’m usually looking for in a casino tournament, but what the hell, why not give them a shot and try to figure them out.
Lol yes. We were laughing like hyenas on pcp, knew what we were laughing at even if we couldn’t understand each other.
 
Though I had a guy once argue that if you're gonna win the event, you'll get your add-on money back anyway...
But you wouldn’t though. You’d only get 40 or 50% of it back - or whatever percentage of the prize pool that the winner takes.
I guess the more I think about it, the more I’m coming around to the idea that that add-on might be worth it if I’m very short stacked. Maybe. I dunno.
I think to win tournaments, you need to outplay your competition and catch a few cards. I guess if you’re short, add on chips can give you more opportunities to outplay your opponents, or maybe more time to wait for the right opportunities to outplay your opponents.
 

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