Help with AA hand

MikesDad

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This is the kind of hand that always gives me trouble... advice appreciated

1/2 NLHE at the local casino. Been playing with villain a couple of hours. Plays lots of hands.. pretty tight raising range.
Villain has about $310, Hero covers.

Villain is UTG and raises to 7. Folds to Hero in the SB who looks down at As Ad and raises to 20, only to be informed that villain's raise was really to 12, so Hero is obligated to make is raise 22. Would have raised more, but not sure it matter. Villian calls.

Flop ($45 pot): Qs 9h 2s -- Hero bets 40, villain calls. I think this is pretty standard, but if you think otherwise, fire away

Turn ($125): Ts -- this is where I'm undecided about the best course.

Is there a "standard" approach to this turn card? We have an over pair and the nut flush draw. Betting seems right, but do we bet/call if raised, or bet/fold, or is check/calling a better play? Or is it read dependent?

FYI, in this particular hand I don't think villain has the flush.. .I don't see KsJs / Ks9s in his utg raising range
 

manamongkids

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always going to depend on villian, but every option is viable at this point

check/callling is the safest play

followed by bet/folding

most aggro is check/raising.
 

courage

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Depends a lot on villain aggression. Regarding range, it's not just KJ but other broadway cards that hit villain's hand, even a lone J makes him open-ended. Hero has lots of equity with what may be the best hand plus the redraw to nut flush. I'm probably check/calling turn if villain is the kind to bet his draws, plus if villain checks behind in this spot I think it's likely he's weak. You can argue that check/call line is pot control here, but I think it's more to prevent being blown off your hand if villain puts you to the test on the flop. So I like the check and evaluate river.

See my avatar. ;)
 

MrBo

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pretty tight raising range

Assuming your image from Villain's perspective is pretty TAG but balanced? After Villain's UTG raise-call and flop call, what kind of range are you assigning him here? I'd probably be thinking AQ, KQ, 99, maybe some combo draws and possibly a few floats with TT, JJ, maybe even 77/88. Because of your "pretty tight" description I'm inclined to think he's not often opening UTG with hands like QT, JT, KJ, QJ, though I would probably include these in an unknown 1/2 player's range. Another question is would Villain only flat pre with hands like QQ or KK?

We want to get value from AQ, KQ, the only hands we're ahead of that might not fold to another barrel. We also want to charge any JT/QJ hands that may be in there. Even though we can get value from hands we're ahead of, I don't see a turn lead getting folds from hands that are ahead of us. Checking sets us up to bet-call most bets and pot control a little, or evaluate on the river and hopefully get an extra bet from weaker/skeptical hands when a blank peels off or we hit our flush. I think it's a tough decision between checking or betting, with the latter being tricky because of turn bet sizing that could get us into commitment threshold territory / the temptation to stack off given the spade outs we picked up.
 

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Yum yum! Now to give this thread proper attention.

First off, Hero needs to better attention to the action. This one hand might be an aberration, but if not, it is a huge red flag. Playing vs unknowns at a casino means every hand is a chance to gain data.

Second, my alarms are sounding an alert when the UTG raise gets folds. This is a great thing because it implies the villain's range is quite tight (but it is also possible everyone got junk too.) I'm curious just what Hero means by "pretty tight raising range". I'd also like to know Hero's table image, it is likely to be important. Lastly, how does Hero read villain's "stickiness" and his over all skill level?

Flop looks standard, SPR of 6+ Hero is close to pot committed but not quite. I hope Hero is watching villain with an eagle eye. Once villain calls I want to range him tightly - over pair, AQ or top set. 1 AA hand, 6 KK hands, 3 QQ hands and 6 AQ hands. I am tossing the AA hand thinking villain might have 4-bet it and it is only 1 hand anyway. Maybe a faint chance of second set. Hero's observation skills are critical here, otherwise we are going to be guessing.

Now the turn. I can't put villain on a flush draw that became good based on Hero's descriptions :ks: :js: or :js: :ts: are fine hands just not the type to get a raise from tight UTG player. On the other hand Hero could have :as: :ks: but likely no other spade draw. It is doubtful either player has KJ or J8 for the straight.

So after some thought while munching the delicious sandwich, I am putting my chips back down and checking. A bet is likely folding every AQ hand unless villain is ultra sticky. Same with KK without the :ks: If the villain has the over pair plus the second nut flush draw plus a straight draw perhaps he calls. Top set will call and many times raise. I want the check to look like a missed AK or perhaps JJ/TT depending on Hero's table image.

Let's hope villain gives us a feeling since the check is often going to cause villain to bet and I think Hero has to call the bet without some table read.

DrStrange
 

grandgnu

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Flop ($45 pot): Qs 9h 2s -- Hero bets 40, villain calls. I think this is pretty standard, but if you think otherwise, fire away

I think your bet size is too large here, I'd be somewhere in the $25-32 range

Turn ($125): Ts -- this is where I'm undecided about the best course.

Alright, Villian started the hand with $310 and has committed $22 plus $40 so $66. That leaves Villian with $244 and our pot size is $125. I don't believe that Villian has a flush here. While it's not impossible, I expect based on the OP his range doesn't include KJ or K9 s00ted.

Hands that I fear Villian could have in this spot that beat us:

QQ
99
TT (less likely since given the overly large flop bet I'd expect to fold out TT and JJ some of the time, unless Hero has a LAG image)

So the most likely hands that villain plays this flop like this are, in my order of likelihood (i.e. most likely to play it this way, not necessarily their most likely holding)

QQ
99
KK
AQ
AA

So we're losing to QQ and 99, but we still have outs. Mathematically we are 22-23% equity against these hands on the turn.

With $125 in the pot I would bet $60 here. This brings the pot size to $185. Now, let's say our Villian shoves on us. That brings the pot size to $429 and we have to call an additional $184. We are getting 2.65 to 1 on a call here. That means we need around 27% equity for our call to be break-even.

Given our description of the OP, do we think Villian is shoving here with AQ or KK? I don't believe so the majority of the time, they'd be inclined to just call for pot control, especially if they figure we may be bluffing or semi-bluffing, to allow us to continue bluffing on the river (i.e. there's no value for them to shove those hands on the turn).

Therefore If villian shoves the turn, then I'd feel ok folding, figuring the hands that this particular villain can actually shove the turn with would be comprised of the sets possible. So I'm in the bet/fold camp here on the turn.

Why not check-call you say? We don't want Villian to check behind with AQ or KK here, we want to continue extracting value. And if villain has one of those sets that we fear, I doubt he'll be betting small, which means we'll need to pay off a larger turn bet than the one we would've made ourselves to get to the river.

Then when we do get there, if we manage to make our nut flush, do we think Villian will pay it off? I don't think they will the vast majority of the time. And if a blank falls on the river and we check and villain shoves, will you find the fold with your Aces then (because you should, Villian won't be shoving this river light very often)
 

detroitdad

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Do you honestly believe we should shove $244 into a $125 pot? For what purpose? To extract value? To avoid being outdrawn?

no, damnt............read slower for crying out loud (talking to myself btw)...........I skimmed a few posts, and honestly like the "jam" avatar, lol.
'
 

Chippy McChiperson

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AQ KQ QJ J10 KK JJ all of these with or without one spade. Oh, and bluffs (if villain is floating the flop as villains are wont to do in position)
 

MikesDad

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Ok.. so it looks like checking the consensus. Just the kind of direction I was hoping for in this thread.

My image is very tight... have been card dead and only won a few pots, in two of which I also had AA
Villain is a bit more sticky than average.

Unfortunately, I chose to bet $50 and as the Dr's analysis shows this was probably not best. Villain raises to $125.
Still can't put villain on flush, so pretty sure he has 99 or QQ, maybe 22. $300 in the pot, $75 to call getting 4:1
Villain still has ~$130 behind, hero covers
 

grandgnu

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AQ KQ QJ J10 KK JJ all of these with or without one spade. Oh, and bluffs (if villain is floating the flop as villains are wont to do in position)

According to the OP

Been playing with villain a couple of hours. Plays lots of hands.. pretty tight raising range.


Villain is UTG and raises to 7

Alright, so we know that our Villian plays a lot of hands (i.e. loose) but also that Villian has a tight raising range. To me that sounds like Villian "may" be a calling station. Based on this assumption, what I know of calling stations is that they rarely raise except when they are extremely strong. As such, I would discount that this villain would raise our turn bet with the following hands you believe they would:

AQ
KQ
QJ
JT
JJ
KK

if this villain is a calling station, it's unlikely most of those hands are even in their raising range pre-flop, and I would expect a calling station to just call with all of those hands on the turn.

However, let's say this opponent isn't a calling station. Let's assume they are fairly competent. Well, they still would be hard pressed to raise us on the turn with the majority of those holdings with just one card to come, given that they raised UTG and we reraised OOP (i.e. their perceived range should be strong, and ours should be even stronger given our reraise)
 

MikesDad

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AQ KQ QJ J10 KK JJ all of these with or without one spade. Oh, and bluffs (if villain is floating the flop as villains are wont to do in position)

of these, I don't think villain is raising KQ (may KQ suited, but Qs is on the board), QJ or JT. If he raised AQ he doesn't have a spade. KxKs, JxJs are possible
 

grandgnu

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Ok.. so it looks like checking the consensus. Just the kind of direction I was hoping for in this thread.

My image is very tight... have been card dead and only won a few pots, in two of which I also had AA
Villain is a bit more sticky than average.

Unfortunately, I chose to bet $50 and as the Dr's analysis shows this was probably not best. Villain raises to $125.
Still can't put villain on flush, so pretty sure he has 99 or QQ, maybe 22. $300 in the pot, $75 to call getting 4:1
Villain still has ~$130 behind, hero covers

Alright, villain is sticky, so I'm leaning towards this opponent being a calling station type most likely. 99 is less likely and QQ is more likely his holding. Against that hand we have around 22-23% equity. We are now getting 4:1 on our call, which means we only have to win 20% of the time to break-even here. Add in the possibility that villain stacks off to us on the river if we hit our flush, and the math says we should call the raise, but be prepared to release on the river if we whiff.
 

DrStrange

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I agree with the call. Planning to posture-check/fold on the river unimproved.

Villain's primary range is QQ or 99. :ks: K is secondary, followed by off color raises (which might be quite strong paired with is board), and a tiny sprinkle of bluffs.

Side note: If Hero had raised 3x villains preflop bet less one dollar - ie raised to $35 rather than $22, it would have made the SPR 4 and the hand would play itself. Not that Hero will win, but the math supports a bet the flop, jam the turn plan (two pot sized bets will consume the stacks with a SPR of 4) It might not feel like a big difference, but that min-raise vs a normal raise is actually a big deal.

DrStrange
 

Zippity

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I agree with the call. Planning to posture-check/fold on the river unimproved.

Villain's primary range is QQ or 99. :ks: K is secondary, followed by off color raises (which might be quite strong paired with is board), and a tiny sprinkle of bluffs.

Side note: If Hero had raised 3x villains preflop bet less one dollar - ie raised to $35 rather than $22, it would have made the SPR 4 and the hand would play itself. Not that Hero will win, but the math supports a bet the flop, jam the turn plan (two pot sized bets will consume the stacks with a SPR of 4) It might not feel like a big difference, but that min-raise vs a normal raise is actually a big deal.

DrStrange

Between you and grandgnu, I feel like a poker nub in NLHE kindergarten. I'm trying to follow here, and I feel like I'm learning a lot about the complexities of poker, bet sizing, and card probability... but could you break down the abbreviations for a newb like me?

Specifically:

LAG (I'm guessing Loose Aggressive)
TAG (I'm guessing Tight Aggressive)
SPR
Hero
Villain

Sorry if this is the wrong place for this thread. I can repost elsewhere.

Thanks!
 

DrStrange

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LAG = Loose Aggressive, typically both pre and post flop.

TAG = Tight Aggressive, typically both pre and post flop.

SPR = Stack to Pot Ratio. Measured when the betting is finished preflop. Pot / smaller stack = SPR (may be more than one value in a multi way pot.) Small SPRs favor "one pair hands" especially big pocket pairs. High SPRs favor speculative hands like suited-connectors, smaller pocket pairs and suited ace. "Small" varies due to the number of players in the hand and the texture of the board.

Hero is a polite way of naming the player in the hand who's decisions we are critiquing. Sometimes people take the critique personally if we call them by name - so we label them Hero.

Every Hero must overcome one or more Villains in a hand, so they guys trying to take Hero's chips are the villain(s).

Glad you asked. How else to learn?

DrStrange
 

Zippity

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LAG = Loose Aggressive, typically both pre and post flop.

TAG = Tight Aggressive, typically both pre and post flop.

SPR = Stack to Pot Ratio. Measured when the betting is finished preflop. Pot / smaller stack = SPR (may be more than one value in a multi way pot.) Small SPRs favor "one pair hands" especially big pocket pairs. High SPRs favor speculative hands like suited-connectors, smaller pocket pairs and suited ace. "Small" varies due to the number of players in the hand and the texture of the board.

Hero is a polite way of naming the player in the hand who's decisions we are critiquing. Sometimes people take the critique personally if we call them by name - so we label them Hero.

Every Hero must overcome one or more Villains in a hand, so they guys trying to take Hero's chips are the villain(s).

Glad you asked. How else to learn?

DrStrange

That makes so much sense now. Thanks!!
 

PsyLens

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:ks: K is secondary

Ok I follow and agree with everything you and Gnu are putting up there but I don't understand, why is KsKx secondary?

Can we also back up a second to say that I don't like the 50$ bet into the 125$ pot. IDK if you should ever bet around 1/3 of the pot unless it's for pure value or a read and the Vs bet sizing seems to be what barely allows you to call here.

-edit-
p.s. I guess I should say why I don't like the bet sizing. If you lead out for 80$ and the V re-pops it to 160$ you're getting 4.5:1 and an easier call.
-2nd edit-
I just can't stop thinking that the V has KK, QQ, or AQ here. If they are a calling station you are ahead of 4/5ths of the combos and even if the V has QQ the flush is good unless its the 9s.
 
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DrStrange

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I am assuming the villain is thinking about the hand and wonders what sort of hand Hero might three-bet from the blinds. So lets see . . .

Hero three-bets from bad position into Villain's UTG raise. We get a glimpse of how it is at this table when everyone folds to villain's UTG raise. Villain doesn't 4-bet, he just calls. Both villain and hero are tight, selective and positionally aware. Each player has framed his/her hand by how they acted on the flop.

Hero's range is going to be quite limited, say JJ+, AKo, maybe some AQ hands maybe TT or 99 but primarily QQ+ and AK.

Villain didn't raise hero, so we should fade out AA and KK (to a lesser extent) Not impossible for villain to flat but less likely. I am thinking AQ+, QQ, JJ lesser chance of lower pairs and AJ

This is just from the preflop action and the table reads the original poster offered to us. It is a best guess knowing that sometimes either player could be diverting from norm.

Now we have the flop - Q 9 2 with two spades. Hero fires and villain flats. If both are capable players we might assume Hero bets here almost all the time and villain calls. I wouldn't tinker with the ranges much except to say that villain likely folds weak pairs and off-color speculative hands.

The turn tells us a lot. < Q 9 2 > T three spades. The board has gotten really wet so we should expect each player will be polarized - good hands or bluffing a scare card. Hero fires a "weak" bet, $50 into a $125 pot. "Weak" because on the surface it looks like a scared hand but underneath it is an invitation to play for stacks. After catching up to the $50, the pot is $225 and villain only has $188 left to bet. (it also could be an indication Hero is a tournament player in a cash game.)

At this point we don't know enough about either player to judge if the rest of the hand is ABC poker with mistakes or tricky play. Hero might have bet $50 holding the nut flush trying to induce villain to call drawing dead. Hero might be making a post oak bluff. Hero might be "true betting" meaning he still hopes he is ahead but is scared enough to limit his losses. Villain elects to raise, not shove all in but make an almost minimum raise that Hero "has" to call We know villain doesn't have the nut flush since Hero has the :as: so what could he have that makes sense?

K :ks: doesn't make great sense. Yes villain would raise that UTG. Many villains would have 4-bet preflop with KK. Many villains would have raised the flop bet. How many villains would min-raise the turn with K :ks:? Possible, yes. But not the most likely hand in my mind which is why I put it in the secondary range. Villain's play for three betting rounds looks a lot like top set or less likely middle set. With some chance that villain struck gold with a hand like :ks: :js: even though that hand is really off-color given the villain's table image and the general read from the table.

I think villain made a mistake with the set and let hero draw cheaply. Even a made flush hand is almost giving Hero the proper price to call.

And I think we mostly agree Hero's $50 turn bet was a mistake. Either check to induce action from weaker hands or bet like you mean it.

DrStrange

As for why the villain doesn't hold AQ very often . . the board is :qs: :9h: :2s: :ts: Hero three bet preflop, bet the flop and under bet the turn. Lets say villain holds :ah: :qh: He could be drawing dead to a set or made flush, He could be drawing to two outs vs AA, five outs vs KK or maybe chopping/freerolled by AQ. Is there much chance villain almost min-raises here? Calling stations are calling. Maybe a bluffish all-in but a dinky $75 raise? Nope I don't think so.
 
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