Tourney Freaky Poker Math I

Gobbs

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The OP can't possibly be serious, right??? If so, do I have a deal for you!!!!

Since a 20 percent chance of winning (using real math) is actually 50/50 (using your math), I'll let you pick any suit you want and we'll cut for a card to see if you hit that suit (which, using real math, gives you a 25 percent chance of winning). Every time it's your suit, I'll give you $200. Every time you don't hit your suit, you give me $100. We'll go for a minimum of 200 cuts, but we can go as many times as you want after 200 cuts.

Do you think we'll see cut number 201?
 

joeyshin

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The OP can't possibly be serious, right??? If so, do I have a deal for you!!!!

Since a 20 percent chance of winning (using real math) is actually 50/50 (using your math), I'll let you pick any suit you want and we'll cut for a card to see if you hit that suit (which, using real math, gives you a 25 percent chance of winning). Every time it's your suit, I'll give you $200. Every time you don't hit your suit, you give me $100. We'll go for a minimum of 200 cuts, but we can go as many times as you want after 200 cuts.

Do you think we'll see cut number 201?

you know he’s gonna draw a flush
 

Taghkanic

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I don’t think the OP was serious.

But I do know a guy who seriously believes this. Possibly the worst poker player I’ve ever met. When asked why he played some trash hand he says “it’s 50/50, either you win or lose.” With no irony.

He hosted a weekly one-table tourney for a year, and did not win for 50 straight sessions. Max 9 players, sometimes as few as six. Normally not a game I’d bother with, but it was like playing with overlay every week.

I tried to explain it to him once like this: Yes, you’re right that there are two possible outcomes, only one of which will happen. But the chances for each outcome happening is almost never exactly 50/50...
 

Gobbs

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Many years ago, I flopped a straight, went all-in, and was called by a guy who has won some major tournaments. He flipped over a flush draw (8 outs since I had one of his clubs). He swore it was a coin flip because he had a 25 percent chance of hitting the club on the turn and a 25 percent chance of hitting the club on the river. When I told him he only had 8 outs, not 13 outs, he thought I was nuts and started explaining his vast poker resume. When everybody else at the time sided with me, he actually thought about it and it finally dawned him that I was right. From the look on his face when he realized, you'd have thought I'd killed his puppy. (My straight stood up, too. Had he hit a club, I don't think he'd have ever believed me. So, maybe I should have just kept my mouth shut.)
 

GimmieUChips

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Everyone had had a little to drink... Okay....I only had one or two people guess who the WSOP ME Winner was. Neither was right. It was Sailor Roberts. We were playing a game with a few really good players. And a few not so good players. This guy draws twice and hit what turned out to be his only out. Someone just talking out loud said, "Wonder what the odds of that are?" Roberts said, 50-50. Everyone started arguing over it. He said, "Yep, 50-50. He either hits or he doesn't" Of course, he was joking too.
 

Schmendr1ck

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Everyone had had a little to drink... Okay....I only had one or two people guess who the WSOP ME Winner was. Neither was right. It was Sailor Roberts. We were playing a game with a few really good players. And a few not so good players. This guy draws twice and hit what turned out to be his only out. Someone just talking out loud said, "Wonder what the odds of that are?" Roberts said, 50-50. Everyone started arguing over it. He said, "Yep, 50-50. He either hits or he doesn't" Of course, he was joking too.
I wonder if he originated it or it's just one of those poker sayings that's been around forever. I heard this one a long time ago and still use it as an occasional joke at the tables, and I had no clue who Sailor Roberts was until I just looked him up.
 

Taghkanic

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The (extraordinarily terrible) player I’ve heard the 50/50 line from is about 75 years old, and has been playing cards for decades. Claims he used to play in a high stakes private stud game in NYC. I would bet he picked up the line many years ago.
 

WedgeRock

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I see your "I flopped the nuts and I'm drawing dead by the turn..."

Polish_20201119_210433725.png


And I raise you "Drawing dead pre-flop with Aces."

Polish_20201119_210314539.png
 

BigSlick4523

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who tf is Sailor Roberts is my question lol I have been playing and watching poker for almost 18yrs never heard of this person
 

Zmasterben

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who tf is Sailor Roberts is my question lol I have been playing and watching poker for almost 18yrs never heard of this person

Well he's been dead for 25 years so maybe that's your problem...

(Poker legend, won the Main Event in 75, was one of the original six at the first WSOP in 1970)
 

Dix

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Um, no. Do you even math, bro?

A) Probability I get hit by lighting and don't win the lottery = .5
B) Probability I get hit by lighting and win the lottery = .5
C) Probability I don't get hit by lighting and don't win the lottery = .5
D) Probability I don't get hit by lighting and I win the lottery =.5
:ROFL: :ROFLMAO:

Or....probability you get hit by lightning on your left testicle at exactly 11:57:23 AM next Tuesday....... 50/50. :D

Be_afraid.jpg
 
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