Tourney Freaky Poker Math I

GimmieUChips

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You are in a $50.00 entry NLHE on-line tourney. You are in 3rd place after playing only solid hands in position. You just finished the 4th break. There are eleven players left. The chip leader is at your table. He is a total idiot that has not gone into a hand ahead in 3 hours – and won 100% of his races. He has rivered a chop in 5 hands when he was all-in with bottom pair.

83.7569391% of poker odds are made up on the spot.

69.732487% of ALL statistics are made up on the spot.

Freaky Poker Math…..

ALL odds in poker are fifty - fifty.

Here is proof...you’re in a race…you have Ah Ac Under The Gun and make a pot size bet. The DB chip leader looks down and has As Ks. He puts you all-in. (It is a race I promise you)

Poker Math = you will win this hand 87.23%

That, is total horse shit. The truth is, it’s 50 / 50. You have a 50% chance to win the hand.

Flop - Ad Js 8s

Now the stupid poker math says you have lost part of your lead in the hand, (even though you’re hand has improved) and you are a 70.91% favoiate. That is totally wrong. The odds of winning are still 50/50.

Turn - 2c

Now the stupid poker math says you have regained part of the lead you had lost in the hand, and you are now back to over 80% at an 81.82% favorite. You feel great!

That is total horse shit - again. The truth is, it’s 50 / 50. You still only have a 50% chance to win the hand.

They either hit their hand, or they don’t.
Put another way – You either win the hand, or you don’t.

It’s fifty – fifty!

River card? – You guys pick how it turns out.

In my dream the 2s hits the river giving the DB a Nut Flush and me a Full House. I smoked the idiot that over played the Ace King. As the idiot ex-chip leader is trying to figure out how it was possible for him to lose the hand – he is dealt Qh 6h and is all-in against a pair of Jacks. He river’s a Queen to double up. A few hands later he is all-in with k3o against Kings. Of course his 3 makes a straight on the river to put him back into the top 4 at the final table. Lucky for you, you have won five other hands and have a 5:1 chip lead over 2nd. You get a pair of threes (33) and this same fool puts you all-in - with Aces. You flop quads and put him out. He calls you a Douche Bag after you quickly tell him “gg”.

You see? It’s all 50/50. You either suckout or you don’t. You either win or you don’t.

I got the 50/50 rule from a world famous poker player friend that I used to play limit poker with. Anyone care to guess who it was? He is a former WSOP Main Event Champion.
 

Legend5555

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Frogzilla

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Fifty fifty stuff is fine, but as to how we played up until 4th break, if you only get it in “ahead” you aren’t bluffing nearly enough
 

Mojo1312

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Nice write up.

Couldn't understand a damn thing you were saying, then I realized you meant fiddy-fiddy.

Haven't you heard what 15x WSOP bracelet winner Phil Helmuth said about poker? "If it weren't for luck, I would lose half the time, every time!"

I got the 50/50 rule from a world famous poker player friend that I used to play limit poker with. Anyone care to guess who it was? He is a former WSOP Main Event Champion.

Ummmm.... Jamie Gold?
 

GimmieUChips

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Nice write up.

Couldn't understand a damn thing you were saying, then I realized you meant fiddy-fiddy.

Haven't you heard what 15x WSOP bracelet winner Phil Helmuth said about poker? "If it weren't for luck, I would lose half the time, every time!"



Ummmm.... Jamie Gold?
NOPE!

Nope not Jamie. I will help out....I live in Texas.
 

Frogzilla

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Last year I was seated at the same table as the venerable TJ in a low stakes MTT. He pointed to me, and shrugs to his friend “someone that guy always has it”. Not his best read. It’s 50/50!
 

Darthhoodie

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I either get hit by lighting or I don't so I'm 50/50 to get hit by lighting, I should stay home today.
But I either hit the lottery or I don't so I'm 50/50 to hit the lottery.
Maybe I should take the risk to go out and play the lottery, now I don't know what to do :unsure:


A) Probability I get hit by lighting and don't win the lottery = (.5)(.5)=.25
B) Probability I get hit by lighting and win the lottery = (.5)(.5)=.25
C) Probability I don't get hit by lighting and don't win the lottery = (.5)(.5)=.25
D) Probability I don't get hit by lighting and I win the lottery = (.5)(.5)=.25

I guess situation A is the only undesirable one assuming I survive the lighting strike so I will leave the house to play the lottery :tup:
 
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Taghkanic

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There is a guy I play against online in a private game who, I swear, plays 75% of hands and always rivers his 1-4 outers against me.

I’ll be a 92-98% favorite going to the river, and bang, there it is. The magic gin card.

Ex.: Supervillain gets it bad pre, say, K5s against my AA... because you know, they were sooted, and he “thought I was bluffing.”

Flop A24 rainbow, turn blank, river 3. Of course! The one card wheel. Knew it all along.

I’m starting to keep a list just to verify to myself that I’m not imagining things/forgetting hands that I did win against him. (This is on Pppoker.)
 

Schmendr1ck

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I either get hit by lighting or I don't so I'm 50/50 to get hit by lighting, I should stay home today.
But I either hit the lottery or I don't so I'm 50/50 to hit the lottery.
Maybe I should take the risk to go out and play the lottery, now I don't know what to do :unsure:


A) Probability I get hit by lighting and don't win the lottery = (.5)(.5)=.25
B) Probability I get hit by lighting and win the lottery = (.5)(.5)=.25
C) Probability I don't get hit by lighting and don't win the lottery = (.5)(.5)=.25
D) Probability I don't get hit by lighting and I win the lottery = (.5)(.5)=.25

I guess situation A is the only undesirable one assuming I survive the lighting strike so I will leave the house to play the lottery :tup:
Um, no. Do you even math, bro?

A) Probability I get hit by lighting and don't win the lottery = .5
B) Probability I get hit by lighting and win the lottery = .5
C) Probability I don't get hit by lighting and don't win the lottery = .5
D) Probability I don't get hit by lighting and I win the lottery =.5
 

Darthhoodie

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Um, no. Do you even math, bro?

A) Probability I get hit by lighting and don't win the lottery = .5
B) Probability I get hit by lighting and win the lottery = .5
C) Probability I don't get hit by lighting and don't win the lottery = .5
D) Probability I don't get hit by lighting and I win the lottery =.5

Is this because every probability is .5 no matter what? Well in that case I want my money back from the University that taught me mafs!
 
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I used this same kind of math in high school to pump myself up enough to make a move on a hot girl.

She was way out of my league, and I figured a ten percent chance of success. Then I thought about it, and realized she either says yes or no, and that’s 50/50.

I still wussed out, even with the greatly improved chance.
 
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