Bet sizing question (1 Viewer)

[boltonguy]

10NL ACR Blitz fast fold. HUD stats aren't relevant.

V in LJ RFI 2.5 BB. Hero in SB 3! to 11BB with QQ. All standard I believe.

Flop is fairly safe IMHO.
LJ will probably have 4! AA/KK/AK pre at high frequencies. So V will have AA/KK at lower frequencies. We will have AA/KK more often here.
LJ will have TT and 88 in range for sure but more combos of AQ/AJ/JJ/99/88/KQs/KJs etc so not a worry.
No A or K is good with QQ. We can definitely get worse hands to call. Better hands are not folding.
Hero is definitely betting for value on this flop and choses 1/3 pot sizing as we are occasionally behind here to AA/KK that flatted IP a small percentage and 88/TT which comprise a small portion of V's range. So we dont have the nuts here so we cant bet big for value and we are not bluffing so not choosing a polarizing size IMHO.
I think that leaves me with a medium 1/3 to 1/2 pot size.

I put this hand in Snowie and it disagrees, choosing a pot-sized bet.
I think our range has AA/KK here more often as V 4! these hands pre, so calling with lower freq. AA/KK are strong but not the nuts on this flop.
However I think we have TT at about equal frequencies, and I do not ever have 88 here (88 is a call in BB to a LJ RFI) while LJ flats 88 probably close to 100%.
So I think V is ahead when it comes to nut advantage on the flop.
V's range is dense with A and K so I want some protection in addition to value but I think protection is a smaller bet.

Anyone have an idea why Snowie wants to bet so big here? What size would you choose and why?

I'll probably put this in GTO+ and see what it thinks.

 

[kmccormick100]

Is a 4.5x 3b standard here with no callers?

As far as flop sizing, I'm inclined to go 1/4 to 1/3pot here, flop should be slightly better for his range containing TT, some 88 and is otherwise going to be comprised of Aces, some containing the nut flush draw. That said, I could see going larger to get value from his AXdd, JJ, 99. As played I think 1/3 is fine, idk why snowie leans towards full pot here.

 

[boltonguy]

Given choices of X, 1/3, 1/2, 2/3, 1, 1.25 and 1.5 pot, GTO+ chooses 1/2 pot most often. I'll run it with fewer choices.

 

[boltonguy]

With fewer choices (X, 1/3, 3/4, pot, 1.75 pot) GTO+ chooses 1/3. I'm sue if 1/2 was still in there it would go 1/2.
This didnt change the distribution of bets on the larger sizes though.

 

[boltonguy]

Is a 4.5x 3b standard here with no callers?

As far as flop sizing, I'm inclined to go 1/4 to 1/3pot here, flop should be slightly better for his range containing TT, some 88 and is otherwise going to be comprised of Aces, some containing the nut flush draw. That said, I could see going larger to get value from his AXdd, JJ, 99. As played I think 1/3 is fine, idk why snowie leans towards full pot here.

In this game, yes 4 - 4.5x 3! from OOP is standard.

 

[springbox]

Don't know anything about Snowie, my general understanding is that in a 3b (and especially in a 4b) pot we bet smaller on the flop because of SPR (1/4~1/3 pot). However, we also hit a wet board with flush and straight draws (although we're very slightly blocking with Qd) so we may want to size up. Pot sized seems like way too much here, we're folding out weak draws and xT and getting called by better. Strong draws like J9dd are obviously continuing no matter what, so maybe that's an argument for something like a pot bet.

Is a 4.5x 3b standard here with no callers?

As far as flop sizing, I'm inclined to go 1/4 to 1/3pot here, flop should be slightly better for his range containing TT, some 88 and is otherwise going to be comprised of Aces, some containing the nut flush draw. That said, I could see going larger to get value from his AXdd, JJ, 99. As played I think 1/3 is fine, idk why snowie leans towards full pot here.

I consider 4x to be a normal 3b OOP, but 4.5x is close enough that it seems fine.

 

[Legend5555]

Given this isn't really a bet 100 kind of flop, I think behind bigger than 1/3 makes sense. I don't think pot is a thing here though very often.

 

[vVCrayon]

I think 1/3rd is fine and pretty standard after 3bet. Depending on opponent, smaller could increase aggression as it shows weakness. Common strategy is 1/3rd on almost any board with you whole 3bet range. QQ with a Qd leans towards smaller sizes in my books as you are at the higher end of your range with a blocker.

Also at 10NL GTO is good, but I wouldn't overthink it. If you have any stats on them large sizing could end up getting more money in faster with their 10x hands, just food for thought.

 

[Nerxa]

Tbh, the flop is low and drawy, hence the big sizing: you either get max value from the hands that will pay or get min value by them. Any decent draw should continue here. I usually 2/3rd these flops, beating top pair, JJ and nuts draws is enough of a range to target, the rest should fold and you really shouldn't fold vs a shove anyway as they can overplay this range, might as well give yourself better odds to call ;p Having the Qd for the moment isn't too much of an issue since you only remove two hands, but villain can still have a lot of Ax of diamonds.

We have a range advantage on this board as we have all the overpairs while he realistically doesn't. Our only set should be top set only but I guess I won't bet range on a T high board oop in 3bet pot anyway. He has more sets and suited hands, which makes his raises more polar between semi bluffs and nuts, not bet/folding QQ here unless the guy is a super omega nit.

BTW i do include lower pairs 3bet freq into sb range in 6 max, mostly because of these situations and I will not play heads up oop. I will flat multiway tho.

 

[vVCrayon]

I like your reasoning and after a second look I would agree on the 2/3rds. Not a bad candidate for a check raise as well depending on how aggressive he is.

 

[Nerxa]

Be careful also to include some AA in his range, he shouldn't 4b 100% in position with 100-120bb effective. He doesn't need as much protection as KK and there are really a JQK flop that would be really scary.