Tourney AKs UTG on the bubble (1 Viewer)

[bentax1978]

Oddly, that was one of the factors that made this a shove in my opinion. Bubble play tends to get players to tighten up. While a big stack would still call you with small pairs, players with 24 or so BB are less likely to be willing to swap places with you at this point. Big Slick is going to play a little stronger here than it would after the bubble bursts.

Let's look at it another way, for argument sake. Let's say that only premium hands (like middle to high pairs) are going to call a bubble shove from UTG in this situation, hands that are effectively going to be a coin flip for me.

Here are the possible outcomes given the above assumption:

I shove and steal the blinds. 90% of the time I pick up 2.5BB.

I shove and get called by a pocket pair. 5% of the time I pick up 14BB and 5% of the time I lose 12 BB and get knocked out of the tournament.

So if this were a cash game, shoving might be considered a +EV move (with an EV of +2.35BB).

However given the parameters of the tournament, and the fact that even with 26BB my chances of cashing for significantly more than the minimum cash of $581 are somewhat slim (given the payout structure), shoving in this case could actually be considered a very low EV move. Let's use the same percentages as above. In order for a shove to be +EV in the tournament, I'd basically have to justify that doubling up would yield an average expected tournament cash of almost $1200 (top 27 finishers) and assume that not doubling up (or just picking up the blinds) will result in a min cash.

Of course it's possible that a shove gets called by hands like AQ/AJ/KQ, which obviously increased my chances of a positive outcome. But even taking that into considering, if we are talking purely in terms of maximizing the monetary EV, a strong case could be made against shoving in this situation.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Let's look at it another way, for argument sake. Let's say that only premium hands (like middle to high pairs) are going to call a bubble shove from UTG in this situation, hands that are effectively going to be a coin flip for me.

Here are the possible outcomes given the above assumption:

I shove and steal the blinds. 90% of the time I pick up 2.5BB.

I shove and get called by a pocket pair. 5% of the time I pick up 14BB and 5% of the time I lose 12 BB and get knocked out of the tournament.

So if this were a cash game, shoving might be considered a +EV move (with an EV of +2.35BB).

However given the parameters of the tournament, and the fact that even with 26BB my chances of cashing for significantly more than the minimum cash of $581 are somewhat slim (given the payout structure), shoving in this case could actually be considered a very low EV move. Let's use the same percentages as above. In order for a shove to be +EV in the tournament, I'd basically have to justify that doubling up would yield an average expected tournament cash of almost $1200 (top 27 finishers) and assume that not doubling up (or just picking up the blinds) will result in a min cash.

Of course it's possible that a shove gets called by hands like AQ/AJ/KQ, which obviously increased my chances of a positive outcome. But even taking that into considering, if we are talking purely in terms of maximizing the monetary EV, a strong case could be made against shoving in this situation.

Ok but what about the rest of the analysis? Same discussion about if you raise to 24K. I think what you have really done is made a case that folding was the correct play.

 

[bentax1978]

Ok but what about the rest of the analysis? Same discussion about if you raise to 24K. I think what you have really done is made a case that folding was the correct play.

I was making a case that perhaps folding > shoving given the bubble situation.

The raise to 24k is more complicated because it involves action on subsequent streets. I don't think my raise to 24k was wise in hindsight, which is what prompted me to create this thread.

 

[Trihonda]

Let's look at it another way, for argument sake. Let's say that only premium hands (like middle to high pairs) are going to call a bubble shove from UTG in this situation, hands that are effectively going to be a coin flip for me.

Here are the possible outcomes given the above assumption:

I shove and steal the blinds. 90% of the time I pick up 2.5BB.

I shove and get called by a pocket pair. 5% of the time I pick up 14BB and 5% of the time I lose 12 BB and get knocked out of the tournament.

So if this were a cash game, shoving might be considered a +EV move (with an EV of +2.35BB).

However given the parameters of the tournament, and the fact that even with 26BB my chances of cashing for significantly more than the minimum cash of $581 are somewhat slim (given the payout structure), shoving in this case could actually be considered a very low EV move. Let's use the same percentages as above. In order for a shove to be +EV in the tournament, I'd basically have to justify that doubling up would yield an average expected tournament cash of almost $1200 (top 27 finishers) and assume that not doubling up (or just picking up the blinds) will result in a min cash.

Of course it's possible that a shove gets called by hands like AQ/AJ/KQ, which obviously increased my chances of a positive outcome. But even taking that into considering, if we are talking purely in terms of maximizing the monetary EV, a strong case could be made against shoving in this situation.

Ok, let's continue the debate. . I love a good debate

So by your math, 95% of the time a shove will net you either 14.5bb or 26bbs, and 5% of the time you're out of the tourney. To me, I think this is practically a free roll for a doubling up. You argue that even if you double up, you're not likely to improve your chances of a deeper run, but I disagree. A 7bb or 9 bb stack is fairly crippled, and our only play is shooting for a min cash. However, a 26bb stack does have some maneuvering room. You can stand to play quite a few extra orbits, be patient, and your stack has much more power. You can potentially pick a decent spot, find another double up, and move up. A fold is a play for a min cash, a shove is a play at 95% chance to stay alive and improve our chip count.

I'm not running any weird actual statistics or anything, this is just my gut feeling.

 

[JoseRijo]

I think this is one of the worst spots imaginable. I hate every play almost equally. I think I could fold AQo and 77. I'm not sure I could fold anything better, but I agree with bentax's analysis above.

 

[bentax1978]

However given the parameters of the tournament, and the fact that even with 26BB my chances of cashing for significantly more than the minimum cash of $581 are somewhat slim (given the payout structure),

You argue that even if you double up, you're not likely to improve your chances of a deeper run, but I disagree

That's not really what I argued (see above quote). I argued that doubling up wouldn't likely increase my expected payout by very much. I could finish 25 places higher and still only get an extra $140. That's a function of the fact that it's a very top heavy payout structure and in order to double my payout over a min cash at 82nd place, I'd have to finish in the top 27. I contend that doubling my stack from 12 to ~26BB, while helpful in staying alive longer and potentially going on a deep run, doesn't have a high enough expected value on average to justify the risk of getting knocked out in that particular situation. So in a situation where doubling up vs getting knocked out is a 50/50 proposition, the expected value of the double up has to exceed the expected value of getting busted out. In this case getting busted out is -$581 as compared to a min cash and I suspect that doubling in that situation has an EV far less than +$581 (above the min cash amount).

Don't get me wrong, I'm just making an argument for why folding preflop isn't a terrible move, and perhaps is the most +EV move in terms of expected payouts.

I've already said that if I could do it over again I almost certainly would have shoved preflop and taken my chances

 

[Poker Zombie]

Don't get me wrong, I'm just making an argument for why folding preflop isn't a terrible move, and perhaps is the most +EV move in terms of expected payouts.

I was all set to reassert my position for the shove, but I see from the line above find both options at least somewhat acceptable. That's the best part about poker. There is rarely a 100% right or wrong answer. I certainly would not poo-poo anyone for folding here, especially if you are proficient with short-stack play.

Yes, I would tend to shove here, but I would not shove 100% of the time. I think that 95% of the time a shove will build your stack, even if it's just a free orbit. But if you cannot remember the action last hand, maybe your game is slipping and the payout (usually a double-up of your buy-in in these tournaments) isn't bad at all. I like poker. If I can play it for hours and get paid... that is never a bad decision.

Casino tournaments love top-heavy payouts though. Taking an extra orbit of premium hand shopping into the post bubble is extremely +EV. Once the bubble breaks, people will be jamming/calling off their stacks with A9o and it's ilk. I've seen it now more times than I can count. They've gotten paid, now they need to take that shot for the money. They're freerolling. This is when every blind comes in handy because there will be some big swings. Keep your head down and just get it out there with the premium hands in the "freeroll" and you will climb way up the payout tree.

Only bad choice was the the weak bet (or a limp), but you still made it work - that's not completely bad either then, is it?

 

[Steve Birrer]

At the end of the day there were three choices.

1. Shove
2. Fold
3. Raise

After all the discussion here (and it has been good) I think most agree that options 1 or 2 were fine but option 3 was the wrong choice. It had the least potential upside.

 

[Dwight87]

How many of you have ever pushed with a premium hand on the bubble, got busted and then cursed why you didn't wait until reaching the money before risking your stack?

It's the worst feeling. At least you got your money in good when you shoved w/tens and had a payout. Respect the nit...er, grinder.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Let's look at it another way, for argument sake. Let's say that only premium hands (like middle to high pairs) are going to call a bubble shove from UTG in this situation, hands that are effectively going to be a coin flip for me.

Here are the possible outcomes given the above assumption:

I shove and steal the blinds. 90% of the time I pick up 2.5BB.

I shove and get called by a pocket pair. 5% of the time I pick up 14BB and 5% of the time I lose 12 BB and get knocked out of the tournament.

So if this were a cash game, shoving might be considered a +EV move (with an EV of +2.35BB).

However given the parameters of the tournament, and the fact that even with 26BB my chances of cashing for significantly more than the minimum cash of $581 are somewhat slim (given the payout structure), shoving in this case could actually be considered a very low EV move. Let's use the same percentages as above. In order for a shove to be +EV in the tournament, I'd basically have to justify that doubling up would yield an average expected tournament cash of almost $1200 (top 27 finishers) and assume that not doubling up (or just picking up the blinds) will result in a min cash.

Of course it's possible that a shove gets called by hands like AQ/AJ/KQ, which obviously increased my chances of a positive outcome. But even taking that into considering, if we are talking purely in terms of maximizing the monetary EV, a strong case could be made against shoving in this situation.

I think you're thinking of this the wrong way. Let's say you get called ten percent of the time, and you lose half of that time (not sure those estimates are accurate, but that's what you're going with so I'll play along). 5% of the time you lose the min cash, so if you are in this spot 100 times you'll lose a total of 5*581 or $2905 in equity. In order for this to be a profitable spot, you need to make up for that the other 95 times. $2905/95 is $30.58, so if you increase your number estimated payout to $581 + $30.58 or $611.58 the times that you shove and win you're breaking even. Just getting to the next pay jump makes it worthwhile.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Chippy good analysis and if anything I think its conservative. I doubt you would lose 50% of the time when you shove AK under the gun in that situation and get called. You are a flip or better with every hand not AA or KK. And in that situation I think the range of hands that call is broader than a pocket pair.

I haven't done the math (but I did find this online) that when you hold AK the chances of having another hand at AA or KK is like 200 to 1. And its 400-1 to find you are against AA. And against KK you are still only a 70-30 dog.

 

[Ben]

A more scientific approach might be in order - I don't have time to do a really complicated math problem right now, but FYI the probability that one of the 8 players left to act holds exactly TT, JJ, or QQ is almost exactly 10%. That's not even counting AA, KK, or any other hands that people might decide to call with.

 

[bentax1978]

A more scientific approach might be in order - I don't have time to do a really complicated math problem right now, but FYI the probability that one of the 8 players left to act holds exactly TT, JJ, or QQ is almost exactly 10%. That's not even counting AA, KK, or any other hands that people might decide to call with.

I'll try and take a more rigorous approach tomorrow and see what I come up with; should be a slow day at work before Labor Day weekend.

 

[Ronoh]

I think you're thinking of this the wrong way. Let's say you get called ten percent of the time, and you lose half of that time (not sure those estimates are accurate, but that's what you're going with so I'll play along). 5% of the time you lose the min cash, so if you are in this spot 100 times you'll lose a total of 5*581 or $2905 in equity. In order for this to be a profitable spot, you need to make up for that the other 95 times. $2905/95 is $30.58, so if you increase your number estimated payout to $581 + $30.58 or $611.58 the times that you shove and win you're breaking even. Just getting to the next pay jump makes it worthwhile.

I've always stood by my thought process that the "over the long term" math should, to a large extent, go out the window when it comes to large field tournaments.

Regardless of that, surely if the 95% of the time you don't bust out of the tournament here results in factoring in the possibility of cash results greater than $581 then you must also factor in more than the $581 minimum for the other 5% of the time where you do bust.