2 pair on the flop with possible straight or flush draw. (1 Viewer)

Daddy N

Two Pair
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It's the end of the night of a low stakes cash game and the villain already put in his 30 minute notice that he was leaving and stuck around for one more hand. $20 buy in, I have about $35 of chips in front of me, villain has exactly $20. He has played TAG moving to LAG as the night went on and he lost a few hands. I'm big blind and limp in with QTo. Villain has position on me and enters the hand with a minimum bet, dealer calls and everyone else folds. The flop TdJcQd. I bet $3, villain goes all in for $20 and dealer folds. What now?
 
What does "enters the hand with a minimum bet" mean? A min raise? A limp? What are the blinds and the size of the pot going into the flop? Important information. In fact, I couldn't really give you advice without it. Whether to call that remaining $17 depends a lot on what's in the pot, but TBH, with top and bottom pair, I don't see this being a fold unless the pot going into the flop only had like $0.20 in it. (And even then, still leaning toward call.)
 
What are you blinds for a $20 buy in?

How much did it cost you to limp? What exactly is his min raise.

First off, if your hand is good enough to limp with, I would have raised with it.

Second, You know you can only lose 20 bucks. You have two pair. Without knowing much about the villain, my guess is that he is trying to get his money back. I'm calling.
 
Sorry .25/.25 game and villain limped in. I was 3.25 into the pot at that point and we mostly play for pride and bragging rights. I could care less about the $17. I just have to hear about it at work until the next event.
 
Newbie question. What does running it twice mean?

Controls variance when you have a made, but exploitable hand and you believe the other pserson is on a draw (or the other way around).

Burn. Turn. Burn. River. Burn. 2nd turn. Burn. 2nd river.

Split pot. You can omit the burns too.
 
So on drawing boards, I'll often put out a bet to see where I'm at. You did that and he came way over the top. He's telling you he flopped a top 2/set/straight/flush. It's a polarizing bet. He's got the high end of that spectrum, or nothing at all.

I could find a fold for a $10 profit (50% ROI). Depending on the villain, I could also call and be satisfied with a -25% ROI if I lose.

Last hand, I'm probably protecting a modest profit. Steve Danneman poker... Folding is only a small mistake. But with any type of inclination that's he's loose or on the draw, sure. Call.

Besides, you're on a draw too.. a boat draw!
 
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It was only his last hand. I was going to keep playing, at that point short stacked against the rest of the table should I loose.
 
Hmm. The nit in me says fold. The reward is not worth the risk. AK, QJ (even QT) and AXdd are all in his range. Maybe JJ or TT for a limp, but probably not QQ.
 
I don’t know if we have enough info to adequately range the villain. How did this play out? I’m talking pre flop. So was villain in Early Position? did he min raise to $.50? And got a few callers and you flatted (called the $.50 bet)? Does it seem like Someone (this villain in particular) who is trying to play for a big pot, min raise with AK? Does he min raise a lot? Need more details.

Not sure why, but this kinda feels like AQ, and he’s trying to scare away any draws and take the POT down now? Dunno. Like I said, more info would be helpful. If it’s AQ, an A is gonna hit the river
 
I’m calling the $17 unless this guy is a huge nit or he has a history of over betting with nut type hands trying to make them look like a bluff.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see AA or KK here.

Seems like he is trying to shut down the action with what he thinks is the best hand but knows it can be beat by a lot of cards on the turn.
 
Burn. Turn. Burn. River. Burn. 2nd turn. Burn. 2nd river.
...
You can omit the burns too.
Huge issue last time in my game. Is there anything official, in writing, about this?
Apologies to the OP for thread-jacking
 
Yeah, everything considered, this is an easy call. Villain could have a long list of hands that have one pair and a straight draw here. In fact, that ought to be the standard holding you see shown down by one or both players in this spot.

Yes, he could have AK, TT, JJ, QQ, or even QJ, but those are the only hands that beat QT, and there are a lot of other hands a TAG on tilt could shove with, thinking he's betting for value or protecting against draws. Really, there's not a hell of a lot more to do with just $20 in this spot. With that low an SPR and such short stacks, anything with a bare king may even look good for a shove, never mind if it's a king with a pair.
 
So I called and villain showed AQo. I started counting his outs...

The fact that you're asking about it tells me Villain hit one of his outs.

You're about 62.5% and he's about 37.5%. While it's certainly possible to get your money in the middle with better equity, being almost a 2:1 favorite is a sweet deal you should willingly accept all day.
 
The reward is not worth the risk. AK, QJ (even QT) and AXdd are all in his range. Maybe JJ or TT for a limp, but probably not QQ.

All true... But on the other hand he also has a ton of Qx, Kx, and other flush or straight draws in his range which are behind. Add to that AJ and AT, maybe even A9, especially the suited combos. JT, too.

Meanwhile, for every JJ and TT , he also has an offsetting 88 and 99, which still have equity but are behind you by a lot; and maybe some KK (though as with QQ he probably would have played those more aggressively pre, though I don’t know the player).

Not to mention all his semi-bluffs and pure bluffs, if he’s capable of either.

On top of that, you still have a few emergency outs (drawing to a boat) with two cards to come. So, even if you’re facing a better made hand, you have a small chance of catching up.

Plus! If he already has a straight or top two, mightn’t he go a little slower to maximize what he can get out of you? Unless he views you as very loose, or is overly afraid of the flushdraw, I’d expect a generic TAG-getting-LAGgy to bet smaller or even check-raise, then get it in on the turn if you just call.

Doing all the exact combinatorix is beyond me here. But in addition to all of the above, since you’ve described him as having become looser as the night wore on, and it's the end of the game, *and* it looks he’s trying desperately to get unstuck, this sounds like a strong call to me.
 
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P.S. re. running it twice: If you believe you are ahead and he’s drawing, running it twice may protect you against a suck-out... But it also gives him a lot more chance to chop. If I think I’m ahead, I don’t want to run that twice.
 
Upside to running it twice: It reduces variance. The more you run it twice, the fewer mind-blowing upsets you'll face, though of course you'll see more chops. I would run it twice all the time in this hand, but then again, I run it twice a lot.

Downside to running it twice: It reduces variance. Variance is the only feature of poker that allows players to have winning nights even when they perpetually get their money in bad. Reduce variance, and you may slightly increase the speed at which donators get tired of the game (because they don't win enough), which is obviously not good in the long term.
 

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