We are playing 2/5 PLO with a $10 rock which is on Hero
SB $200
BB $175
Hijack $2,300
Hero (button) $1,900
SB limps, BB limps. Hijack makes it $25
Hijack is active, competent LAG, although his hand selection can be very speculative holdings, he makes up for it with positional aggression
Hero is button and elects to call $15 more with
SB and BB call, flop
Checked to Hijack who fires $75, Hero calls, SB folds, BB shoves for $150, Hijack calls, Hero calls
Turn
Hijack bets $350, Hero calls
River
Hijack bets $1,100
Hero???
Scenario: HERO is considering a really thin hero-call on the river getting a not-so-good price.
You didn't say anything about Villain's frequency of c-betting, any bet-sizing reads, etc. so there's not a ton to go on here to be honest. You also didn't discuss any history between HERO and the Villain, either direct or indirect. It'd also be interesting to know what his body language was like, if you noticed anything (pauses, facial expressions, long looks at the board, etc.).
So here are a few generalizations:
Villain doesn't bet full pot on the flop. In my experience in PLO, this is someone who either wants action, or is putting out a c-bet with a strong yet vulnerable hand. You flat called - and BB check-raised the rest of his short-stack. Villain flats the other $75. I think this is an important detail as to strength of his hand. One would certainly expect a historically aggressive player would re-raise here. So I think you can rule out a set. IMO, A-J-x-x or an overpair with perhaps a strong heart draw are leading candidates. He may also have some type of strong combo draw with back-door flush or straight possibilities.
We also need to think about what your call of $75 twice says about your hand to him. You called pre, then called twice on this flop - essentially declining to raise despite two opportunities to do so. Depending on what villain has blocked, he probably has a pretty strong read on what you're holding.
On the turn he bets ~3/4 pot
into an empty sidepot after a virtual blank hits the turn. Competent LAGs don't do this as a pure bluff, since they've nothing to gain from you folding other than closing out the action. I suspect villain holds a hand like 9-10-J-Q or A-J-10-9 and improved to top-2 pair. Again, he doesn't fear a set due to your passive play on the flop. He could also be building a side-pot for the nut-flush draw - but you'd think he'd have done that on the flop.
On the river, he probably doesn't fear the straight because he assumes:
- You would have to have to have flopped a full wrap straight draw on this flop for that to have made your hand (unless he thinks you're calling $350 with just a gutshot on the turn);
- Even if you flopped the wrap you might not draw to it with the hearts out there;
- If you flopped the wrap/FD combo you'd probably have raised at some point.
His river bet of almost full pot is a little suspicious - but it really doesn't matter. The only thing you can beat is complete air - Could Villain have a hand like AKQ10 with a heart draw? He likely (correctly) assumes you have a flush draw - so maybe he bet big thinking you're not calling no matter what. Sure it's possible you're ahead but that's would require a very specific read to make this call here, and the pattern doesn't support it.
My biggest thing is Villain's turn bet. It's screams strength. If I'm in this spot, this hand hits the muck (preflop)