10-10 Overpair to a Scary Flop UTG in a 13-Person Private MTT

Moxie Mike

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Setting: Event #2 of the Moxie Poker League. 13 players started, 8 remain. Final table.

Game is NLHE. Rebuy period is over. Entry fee: $60 including bounty. $30 add on at first break has already elapsed.

Pays 3 places. Hero is also participating in a $20 last-longer prop-bet with 8 other players although that's probably not a huge consideration at this point.

Blinds: 1000/2000

Relevant stacks/reads:

HERO: UTG with ~60k. HERO's table image to the group is solid LAG. HERO is the 2nd strongest performer in league play through 3 seasons in terms of avg. points/event.

MP: ~200k. Built his stack by coming out on top of a under-full < over-full < quads hands that felted 2 players. Has consistently been one of the weaker performers through 3 seasons of league play due to LAG-Donkish tendencies. His play has improved in recent events with more disciplined folds and better preflop standards but he is still one of the soft spots in the game.

Button: ~58k. League's best player by results. PF range can include pretty much any hand worth taking a flop with in position against multiple opponents. Plays well enough to not go broke if he doesn't hit the flop hard enough.

Action:

HERO has :td::tc: and raises to 6k.

MP calls. There's more than a hint of reluctance in his body language as he pushes his chips forward.

Button checks his hole cards when the action reaches him, caps his cards and calls with no hesitation.

Both blinds fold. Pot: 21k.

Flop is: :3d::5d::7d:.

Action is on HERO.

It's nice to have an overpair to the board but this is a pretty terrible flop. Aside from maybe the offsuit nines and the other two 10s, there really are no safe turn cards in the deck. Options are check to gain information; c-bet to gain information; or jam.

Your thoughts?
 

mrplacey

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Great spot, thank you in advance for this PAHWM.

Feels like a check/call here.
 

Anthony Martino

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Hero doesn't need to go broke here. But this may not be a flop your opponents are thrilled about either

I downbet 8k. With two opponents they have to worry about you AND each other in this spot

We have enough chips we can get away here, but we may have the best hand as well and a bet may take it down or get us significantly more info on our opponents strength
 

toynoob

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I personally wouldn't let the button (my guess AdJo) type hand see another diamond for free. The MP prob has like j9, qj, or small pair. Meaning if another diamond comes he could also suck out. I don't see an over pair or you would of got bumped pre.

I ship it, if the ace of diamonds calls it will cost him. This is a pot I want to win now. Like you said no good turn cards coming. I am wreckless, but sometimes that's how you scoop tournaments.
 

Beakertwang

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Feels like hero will either put all his chips in the middle, or not put another chip in the middle. Not much help, but probably all you'd expect from me.

I'll think about it.
 

Legend5555

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This flop isn't all that awful for us really. The only really annoying thing is being oop here. We have a blocker to several suited broadway hands and 9T. Any overpair larger than ours would have 3 bet pre. So we are beating just about everything here at the moment besides a flopped flush, set, and AdX and possibly KdX type hands that are close to even against us. Everything else is going to hate this flop, and we are way ahead of those hands anyway.

A jam doesn't really get us any value. We only get called when crushed or even money. So unless someone crying calls with 66, 88, 99 with a diamond, we are basically bluffing.

Monotone boards can play a lot like dry boards. Most hands can't do too much on monotone boards. The only hands that can really play back at us for betting smallish here are the hands mentioned above. But we can still get value from broadways with one diamond and the smaller pairs.

I'd bet 7-9k and expect to just win a decent amount of the time. If raised, I'll be sad as we have to fold or jam knowing we are getting called. At that point if like to know more about the player tendencies. If called, we can evaluate the turn, but a call would almost certainly indicate we are ahead.

Edit: misread button as big blind. Though I still think I'd make the same play.
 
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Legend5555

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Side note, seeing as we are only 30bb deep, and there is no ante, I don't think we need to raise a full 3x. It bloats the pot a little too much IMO.
 

Moxie Mike

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I downbet 8k. With two opponents they have to worry about you AND each other in this spot
Thanks for chiming in.

I should probably have mentioned that I NEVER downbet. That arrow just isn't in my quiver.

Not that it's a bad idea, but if I c-bet in a way that's inconsistent with previous patterns, MP might not notice but the Button definitely will.

I've probably played with these guys 40 times in the past year, so we know one another's games pretty well by now. A downbet will be correctly perceived as weakness. So any bet has to tell a story of strength, or I'll get skewered.

checking > downbetting IMO.

I personally wouldn't let the button (my guess AdJo) type hand see another diamond for free. The MP prob has like j9, qj, or small pair. Meaning if another diamond comes he could also suck out. I don't see an over pair or you would of got bumped pre.

I ship it, if the ace of diamonds calls it will cost him. This is a pot I want to win now. Like you said no good turn cards coming. I am wreckless, but sometimes that's how you scoop tournaments.
Interestingly enough I actually had the opposite read preflop. I thought MP had a medium PP or an AJo type of hand while the Button held something super speculative.

Jamming has merit but I'm only scooping if both opponents whiffed. If I get called, I'm probably behind but my diamond draw isn't in horrible shape against a flopped set and I'm only a moderate dog against :ad::jx:.

The obvious downside is if I get called and lose, my night is done.
 

JustinInMN

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I think @Legend5555 pretty much nailed my preferred line.

One argument I can come up with for checking is to be willing to lose this pot giving a free card and check-folding bad turn cards. But I don't know if this pot is really small to gamble having to abandon it where hero figures to be ahead except against flopped monsters.

Factoring in the villain reads, the other argument I could make for checking is to exploit MP if he bluffs too much after hero shows weakness. This would be a check intending to shove on MP villain. The risk here is to me, MP villain is more likely to have a flush, 2-pair-plus, that the button. But depending on his actual level of LAGgyness, he can have air here too. Not to mention hero will check himself a loser if any diamond or overcard falls in all likelyhood. (If hero is lucky to have the only diamond, he may get to a cheap showdown.)

But the main reason I favor a bet is because it may get button to fold a dry :jd: :qd: or maybe even :kd:, which might save hero the pot heads up with MP. It's tough to know if button could ever play JJ or QQ just flatting pre. I assume he would reraise 3-bet KK+.

So overall I like the bet, but if hero gets shoved on it's tough. The decision would be whether folding TT is an overfold, or if hero needs to draw the call line here.
 
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grebe

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I personally would see a down bet here as a sign of weakness, and could possibly push back expecting you to give up immediately... Playing from the villain's view point, especially a good villain.

Personally, against 2 opponents, I'm betting about 15k. At that amount, I know if I don't get 2 folds, I'm in hot water. Then I can confidently know I'm beat and lay it down to any play back.
 

JustinInMN

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I should probably have mentioned that I NEVER downbet. That arrow just isn't in my quiver.

I've probably played with these guys 40 times in the past year, so we know one another's games pretty well by now. A downbet will be correctly perceived as weakness. So any bet has to tell a story of strength, or I'll get skewered.
Maybe it's time to start :). This is a pretty good hand to induce a bluff to call :p.

But honestly, a check probably serves this purpose too.

So the pot is 21K, and hero has about 54K behind. So if hero is only making bets of say 18K or more hero will be left with 36K and either of the following will happen.

1) One or both opponents cal and hero will have 36K in a pot of 47K-65K
2) Someone shoves and hero will face 36K to call an all in to win about 99K (mental math)

So a bet seems pretty committing in most spots, and hero really won't have enough to shove the turn except against the most hopeless of villain holdings.

Checking is starting to look better if a half-pot bet is out of the question. The stack size lends itself to a pretty good check-raise that will get the overcards and the non-:ad: diamonds to fold.
 

Legend5555

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The problem with open jamming is we really only get called by flushes, sets, Ad hands. If we are generous and say that a person that calls a jam could have ANY Ad hand in addition to sets, Broadway flush, 89dd, we are only 40%. But realistically, I imagine they are unlikely to have A9o or worse. Which puts us at about 32%.

We are going to get action from all those hands regardless, but against the other hands, we don't have to bet as much to get a fold/value.
 

Legend5555

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Maybe it's time to start :). This is a pretty good hand to induce a bluff to call :p.

But honestly, a check probably serves this purpose too.

So the pot is 21K, and hero has about 54K behind. So if hero is only making bets of say 18K or more hero will be left with 36K and either of the following will happen.

1) One or both opponents cal and hero will have 36K in a pot of 47K-65K
2) Someone shoves and hero will face 36K to call an all in to win about 99K (mental math)

So a bet seems pretty committing in most spots, and hero really won't have enough to shove the turn except against the most hopeless of villain holdings.

Checking is starting to look better if a half-pot bet is out of the question. The stack size lends itself to a pretty good check-raise that will get the overcards and the non-:ad: diamonds to fold.
+1

If the downbet isn't in hero's playbook, then a check is better than a bet unless hero intends to bet/call it off.
 

JustinInMN

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The problem with open jamming is we really only get called by flushes, sets, Ad hands. If we are generous and say that a person that calls a jam could have ANY Ad hand in addition to sets, Broadway flush, 89dd, we are only 40%. But realistically, I imagine they are unlikely to have A9o or worse. Which puts us at about 32%.

We are going to get action from all those hands regardless, but against the other hands, we don't have to bet as much to get a fold/value.
I agree, it's atrocious to light 27 BB on fire here in a 10 BB pot.
 

Moxie Mike

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I agree, it's atrocious to light 27 BB on fire here in a 10 BB pot.
It's worth pointing out that the MP's calling range is significantly wider than that of the Button. Button is only calling with a premium draw or a set; while MP will probably call with hands as weak as 7x8x considering his chip stack.

Against the Button alone I think this is an easy jam. I'm not a fan of the c-bet (in any amount) because it doesn't do much to deny equity, and puts me in a spot where I have to fold what could really be the best hand if I face a raise.

If I lead out for a standard amount in this spot and get raised, am I really releasing the hand just to continue playing in the tournament shortstacked?
 

grebe

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It's worth pointing out that the MP's calling range is significantly wider than that of the Button. Button is only calling with a premium draw or a set; while MP will probably call with hands as weak as 7x8x considering his chip stack.

Against the Button alone I think this is an easy jam. I'm not a fan of the c-bet (in any amount) because it doesn't do much to deny equity, and puts me in a spot where I have to fold what could really be the best hand if I face a raise.

If I lead out for a standard amount in this spot and get raised, am I really releasing the hand just to continue playing in the tournament shortstacked?
You started with 30bbs here. So did your strong opponent. You have a pretty dang good hand, with a scary board that's true. But, it's scary for everyone, not just you. You have to give it a shot, if you are beat, you are beat. Checking in my mind is Very low ev, because the good player will see your weakness and put you to a tough decision. I would rather bet a good cbet.... Knowing there is a good chance I am good here and picking up the pot. Playing scared is losing poker, if not this hand, then one down the road. 15k is my play.... Put them to a decision. If I get a call, I'm hoping to get lucky and seeing showdown for free.... Like with a 7x or some b.s. hand.
 

Legend5555

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It's worth pointing out that the MP's calling range is significantly wider than that of the Button. Button is only calling with a premium draw or a set; while MP will probably call with hands as weak as 7x8x considering his chip stack.

Against the Button alone I think this is an easy jam. I'm not a fan of the c-bet (in any amount) because it doesn't do much to deny equity, and puts me in a spot where I have to fold what could really be the best hand if I face a raise.

If I lead out for a standard amount in this spot and get raised, am I really releasing the hand just to continue playing in the tournament shortstacked?
This is why incorporating down bets is so valuable. Whether you bet 7k or 15k doesn't change the fact that a raise means essentially all in. You can't live in fear of getting raised especially when there are hands you can extract value from.

Leading out here is essentially putting the MP player in a squeeze. He can't really afford to call very light, and if he does that's great for you. If the button jams after the call you can easily fold given the jam range has you in pretty bad shape plus you have the MP player to worry about.

Checking isn't bad, but it puts you in a big guessing game unless it goes check check behind you. What are you supposed to do if you check and it goes bet call? Jam all in against them? Just call and be oop with a pot sized bet left on the turn? All of these things are sketchy.

And that kind of the point of the whole scenario. 30bb spots tend to be tough when you don't flop strong.
 

JustinInMN

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t's worth pointing out that the MP's calling range is significantly wider than that of the Button. Button is only calling with a premium draw or a set; while MP will probably call with hands as weak as 7x8x considering his chip stack.

Against the Button alone I think this is an easy jam. I'm not a fan of the c-bet (in any amount) because it doesn't do much to deny equity, and puts me in a spot where I have to fold what could really be the best hand if I face a raise.
So just focusing on the button for now here are the ways hero shoves can play out.

Best case scenario for shoving is button doesn't have a monster and folds, and hero goes from 27BB to 37BB. Otherwise, if villain has a monster , hero is out (or I guess down to 2K)

If Hero bets 9 BB (close to pot) instead, hero can decide to fold to a button shove if it's a "never bluff" spot for him and still have 19 BB, beats having 1 BB.

Obviously the MP villain complicates these scenarios. But shoving might give this villain a chance to get away from hands he would call a smaller bet with.
 

Steve Birrer

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I'd bet 9 or 10K and if raised I am folding. Logic being this:

1. A made flush is going to shove over me unless its the nuts which they may slow play.
2. If Hero shoves and gets called he's either a flip (at best) or a dog.

A half pot sized bet may well take it down but if we get shoved on or called and the turn card sucks we still can still get away from the hand and have 22bb left. Not good for playable.
 

JustinInMN

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I'd bet 9 or 10K and if raised I am folding. Logic being this:

1. A made flush is going to shove over me unless its the nuts which they may slow play.
2. If Hero shoves and gets called he's either a flip (at best) or a dog.
I agree with most of this, but I don't think I'm making a hard fold here if I think a call against MP lag if he's an overbluffer.

But from a GTO standpoint, if I can play JJ+ and made flushes this way, I think it's okay to release TT here.
 

Moxie Mike

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It pretty much seems like most everyone is in the c-bet/fold to aggression camp.

I will be away from my desk for the next 36 hours so here's the results/final thoughts. Feel free to continue the discussion if you care to.

I considered my options as first to act. I figured checking was too weak and would surely get me moved off my hand. C-betting was another option, but I didn't feel like that would gather much information about my opponents' holdings should I get called in one or both places. Bloating the pot while OOP when just about every single turn card is bad wasn't a great idea either.

Jamming seemed like the best option. It will suck to get called, but applying as much pressure as possible seemed like the best path forward to take the pot down right there.

MP thinks for about 5 seconds and calls.

Button paused after MP's action, then reluctantly called and tabled pocket fives for middle set. MP then turned over :jx: :jd: absolutely crushing my flush draw.

The board ran out clean and the Button tripled up.

Thoughts

It's hard not to be results oriented after this, but I like jamming here. I think a jam gets through here a lot of the time. JJ is absolutely at the top of MP's preflop flatting range and his game adjustments don't usually reflect stacks sizes or other tournament dynamics. I've seen him make similar plays with big pairs, AKo, etc. I wasn't shocked at all when he tabled his hand.

In retrospect, I realize that checking would have gained me a ton of information. MP would surely have led out had I checked, the Button would have jammed and I would have released the hand. This is being results oriented of course, but if I had checked and had it check through I could confidently bet just about any turn card and expect to take it down knowing my opponents have missed the flop too.
 

Perthmike

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When you say "gets through", do you mean folds all hands worse than yours?

I also would have liked a downbet on the flop.
 

FordPickup92

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I personally wouldn't let the button (my guess AdJo) type hand see another diamond for free. The MP prob has like j9, qj, or small pair. Meaning if another diamond comes he could also suck out. I don't see an over pair or you would of got bumped pre.

I ship it, if the ace of diamonds calls it will cost him. This is a pot I want to win now. Like you said no good turn cards coming. I am wreckless, but sometimes that's how you scoop tournaments.
Interesting we play very similarly
 

v1pe

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It pretty much seems like most everyone is in the c-bet/fold to aggression camp.

I will be away from my desk for the next 36 hours so here's the results/final thoughts. Feel free to continue the discussion if you care to.

I considered my options as first to act. I figured checking was too weak and would surely get me moved off my hand. C-betting was another option, but I didn't feel like that would gather much information about my opponents' holdings should I get called in one or both places. Bloating the pot while OOP when just about every single turn card is bad wasn't a great idea either.

Jamming seemed like the best option. It will suck to get called, but applying as much pressure as possible seemed like the best path forward to take the pot down right there.

MP thinks for about 5 seconds and calls.

Button paused after MP's action, then reluctantly called and tabled pocket fives for middle set. MP then turned over :jx: :jd: absolutely crushing my flush draw.

The board ran out clean and the Button tripled up.

Thoughts

It's hard not to be results oriented after this, but I like jamming here. I think a jam gets through here a lot of the time. JJ is absolutely at the top of MP's preflop flatting range and his game adjustments don't usually reflect stacks sizes or other tournament dynamics. I've seen him make similar plays with big pairs, AKo, etc. I wasn't shocked at all when he tabled his hand.

In retrospect, I realize that checking would have gained me a ton of information. MP would surely have led out had I checked, the Button would have jammed and I would have released the hand. This is being results oriented of course, but if I had checked and had it check through I could confidently bet just about any turn card and expect to take it down knowing my opponents have missed the flop too.
Is 3x your standard open size PF? I prefer a sightly smaller preflop sizing to increase the postflop SPR. That would give you a little more room to maneuver postflop.

I do like to cbet monochrome flops (especially when we have a diamond blocker) and am also in the down betting camp.
 

Poker Zombie

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I like @Anthony Martino's down bet. If it's not in your playbook, your playbook is lacking.

The best compliment I ever got at a poker table was when a poker pro said "You scare me". When I felted her it was followed up with the most polite "Motherfucker" I ever heard. It was because I vary my game wildly. If you have a table image, break it. Always keep them guessing.
 
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