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[1 LEFT TO PAY/CARDS ASSIGNED] 2026 WSOP ME Last Hand Jackpot ($20 entry) (5 Viewers)

Alright boys. Here's the random list:

1778506982036.webp
 
Let's assign cards to that list in new deck order:

  • BarrieJ3 (:as:)
  • krafticus (:2s:)
  • Seeking Alpha Social Club (:3s:)
  • sonofneeway (:4s:)
  • grantc54 (:5s:)
  • pocketJs (:6s:)
  • pokerplayingpisces (:7s:)
  • k9dr (:8s:)
  • raynmanas (:9s:)
  • harrysallout (:ts:)
  • ExtraMild (:js:)
  • Kam (:qs:)
  • Highli99 (:ks:)
  • Thomacetti (:ad:)
  • Forty4 (:2d:)
  • Sprouty (:3d:)
  • detroitdad (:4d:)
  • justsomedude (:5d:)
  • Jonesey07 (:6d:)
  • suited67 (:7d:)
  • Cliff (:8d:)
  • ChaosRock (:9d:)
  • PapaDrew/Timmah (:td:)
  • TankingRowlet (:jd:)
  • chippitydoodah (:qd:)
  • amigocrm (:kd:)
  • Marius L (:kc:)
  • TheBigTater (:qc:)
  • GreatWhiteDope (:jc:)
  • MykL316 (:tc:)
  • Poker Zombie (:9c:)
  • embiggens (:8c:)
  • gopherblue (:7c:)
  • MikesDad (:6c:)
  • Hotus777 (:5c:)
  • pokerkid05 (:4c:)
  • elPadroni (:3c:)
  • TheRealTeddyKGB (:2c:)
  • BKisback (:ac:)
  • cpac54 (:kh:)
  • mattross1313 (:qh:)
  • RocAFella1 (:jh:)
  • triton (:th:)
  • Hornet (:9h:)
  • derekdd23 (:8h:)
  • Tham6165 (:7h:)
  • ChipFinderSK (:6h:)
  • Big Money (:5h:)
  • WedgeRock (:4h:)
  • Tony_M (:3h:)
  • NotRealNameNoSir (:2h:)
  • foreverdev (:ah:)
 
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Now, lets alphabetize that list so you can find your name/card easier.


* - @PapaDrew needs to pay by 05/18/2026; if not, the spot is offered to @Timmah.

Good luck, everyone!
 
Last edited:
WedgeRock said:
Now, lets alphabetize that list so you can find your name/card easier.


* - @PapaDrew needs to pay by 05/18/2026; if not, the spot is offered to @Timmah.

Good luck, everyone!
Click to expand...
The CLASSIC brick river 2h is going to be the point where the players decide enough is enough let's end it here. Tale as old as time.
 
Hypothetical. What if an all in preflop happens. Player A with higher chip count flops quads. Player B is drawing dead after the flop and flips the table over. No turn or river is produced in the onset of the chaos.
What are we doing then? lol
 
Tham6165 said:
Hypothetical. What if an all in preflop happens. Player A with higher chip count flops quads. Player B is drawing dead after the flop and flips the table over. No turn or river is produced in the onset of the chaos.
What are we doing then? lol
Click to expand...
House keeps all unawarded prizes.

Seriously, in the event something crazy like that happens (that final table is stout AF, I doubt you could flip it), all unearned prizes will be returned.
 
Last edited:
NotRealNameNoSir said:
The CLASSIC brick river 2h is going to be the point where the players decide enough is enough let's end it here. Tale as old as time.
Click to expand...

Every card is possible, but my theory is that low and middle cards are more likely to hit the board, because the players are more likely to hold better cards in their hand.
 
WedgeRock said:
Every card is possible, but my theory is that low and middle cards are more likely to hit the board, because the players are more likely to hold better cards in their hand.
Click to expand...
I came to the same conclusion. I'd prefer not to have a 2 since its part of a suited wheel that may get shoved but I would prefer it to A/K/Qs if I had a pick. If I was unemployed I would love to analyze the final runouts for all the televised MEs, would be an interesting odds game.
 
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NotRealNameNoSir said:
I came to the same conclusion. I'd prefer not to have a 2 since its part of a suited wheel that may get shoved but I would prefer it to A/K/Qs if I had a pick. If I was unemployed I would love to analyze the final runouts for all the televised MEs, would be an interesting odds game.
Click to expand...
I did it with AI
WSOP MAIN EVENT — FINAL HAND BOARD RUNOUTS
Card Frequency · 1972–2025 · 54 Finals
==================================
Card × % of finals
---- --- -----------
4♣ ×13 24.1%
2♣ ×11 20.4%
5♥ × 9 16.7%
Q♣ × 9 16.7%
T♣ × 9 16.7%
5♦ × 8 14.8%
8♠ × 8 14.8%
9♣ × 8 14.8%
K♦ × 8 14.8%
2♦ × 7 13.0%
5♠ × 7 13.0%
5♣ × 7 13.0%
8♣ × 7 13.0%
2♥ × 6 11.1%
3♥ × 6 11.1%
7♦ × 6 11.1%
9♥ × 6 11.1%
J♠ × 6 11.1%
Q♠ × 6 11.1%
T♥ × 6 11.1%
T♦ × 6 11.1%
2♠ × 5 9.3%
3♦ × 5 9.3%
4♦ × 5 9.3%
6♠ × 5 9.3%
6♣ × 5 9.3%
8♥ × 5 9.3%
9♦ × 5 9.3%
3♣ × 4 7.4%
4♠ × 4 7.4%
6♥ × 4 7.4%
6♦ × 4 7.4%
8♦ × 4 7.4%
9♠ × 4 7.4%
A♣ × 4 7.4%
K♣ × 4 7.4%
3♠ × 3 5.6%
4♥ × 3 5.6%
7♠ × 3 5.6%
7♣ × 3 5.6%
7♥ × 3 5.6%
A♦ × 3 5.6%
J♥ × 3 5.6%
J♦ × 3 5.6%
K♠ × 3 5.6%
K♥ × 3 5.6%
A♥ × 2 3.7%
J♣ × 2 3.7%
Q♥ × 2 3.7%
T♠ × 2 3.7%
A♠ × 1 1.9%
Q♦ × 1 1.9%
==================================
Total known cards : 266
Finals counted : 54 (1972–2025)
Expected per card : 5.1 apps (~9.5%)
Note: 1972 suits partially unknown
 
Last edited:
foreverdev said:
I did it with AI

WSOP MAIN EVENT — FINAL HAND BOARD RUNOUTS
Card Frequency · 1972–2024 · 53 Finals
===============================================
Card × % of boards Bar
---- --- ----------- ---
4♣ ×12 22.6% ■■■■■■■■■■■■
2♣ ×11 20.8% ■■■■■■■■■■■
5♥ × 9 17.0% ■■■■■■■■■
Q♣ × 9 17.0% ■■■■■■■■■
T♣ × 9 17.0% ■■■■■■■■■
5♦ × 8 15.1% ■■■■■■■■
8♠ × 8 15.1% ■■■■■■■■
K♦ × 8 15.1% ■■■■■■■■
2♦ × 7 13.2% ■■■■■■■
5♠ × 7 13.2% ■■■■■■■
8♣ × 7 13.2% ■■■■■■■
9♣ × 7 13.2% ■■■■■■■
2♥ × 6 11.3% ■■■■■■
3♥ × 6 11.3% ■■■■■■
5♣ × 6 11.3% ■■■■■■
7♦ × 6 11.3% ■■■■■■
9♥ × 6 11.3% ■■■■■■
J♠ × 6 11.3% ■■■■■■
Q♠ × 6 11.3% ■■■■■■
T♥ × 6 11.3% ■■■■■■
T♦ × 6 11.3% ■■■■■■
2♠ × 5 9.4% ■■■■■
3♦ × 5 9.4% ■■■■■
4♦ × 5 9.4% ■■■■■
6♠ × 5 9.4% ■■■■■
6♣ × 5 9.4% ■■■■■
8♥ × 5 9.4% ■■■■■
9♦ × 5 9.4% ■■■■■
3♣ × 4 7.5% ■■■■
4♠ × 4 7.5% ■■■■
6♥ × 4 7.5% ■■■■
6♦ × 4 7.5% ■■■■
8♦ × 4 7.5% ■■■■
9♠ × 4 7.5% ■■■■
A♣ × 4 7.5% ■■■■
K♣ × 4 7.5% ■■■■
3♠ × 3 5.7% ■■■
4♥ × 3 5.7% ■■■
7♠ × 3 5.7% ■■■
7♥ × 3 5.7% ■■■
J♥ × 3 5.7% ■■■
J♦ × 3 5.7% ■■■
K♠ × 3 5.7% ■■■
K♥ × 3 5.7% ■■■
7♣ × 2 3.8% ■■
A♥ × 2 3.8% ■■
A♦ × 2 3.8% ■■
J♣ × 2 3.8% ■■
Q♥ × 2 3.8% ■■
T♠ × 2 3.8% ■■
A♠ × 1 1.9% ■
Q♦ × 1 1.9% ■
===============================================
Total known cards : 261
Finals counted : 53 (1972–2024)
Expected per card : 5.0 appearances (~9.5%)
Note: 1972 suits partially unknown

Total known cards: 261
Note: 1972 suits partially unknown
Click to expand...
Wonderful! I'm too lazy to check the numbes, but its always fun when you ask AI and it tells you what you want to hear lol.

Hmm now I'm looking at the cards. 4 of the top 5 are clubs which is just interesting; the "last hand" is not truly random cause its not always shoved preflop. We're still definitely in the margin of error and have low n=.

Tclubs coming out 9 times compared to Tspades only twice in 53 runouts. Odd.

Hey @foreverdev could you add on:
-Give me number of runouts that have two or more of one suit on the flop
and
-Give me total number of each suit (last one I just dont want to do by hand).

Ask it, "if you're betting on one card to be River, which would you pick?"
 
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Last edited:
@WedgeRock i wasn’t questioning if money would be returned. I was just hoping to see some of our degenerate ideas of how we would “raffle” the other prize money.
 
Last edited:
NotRealNameNoSir said:
Wonderful! I'm too lazy to check the numbes, but its always fun when you ask AI and it tells you what you want to hear lol.

Hmm now I'm looking at the cards. 4 of the top 5 are clubs which is just interesting; the "last hand" is not truly random cause its not always shoved preflop. We're still definitely in the margin of error and have low n=.

Tclubs coming out 9 times compared to Tspades only twice in 53 runouts. Odd.

Hey @foreverdev could you add on:
-Give me number of runouts that have two or more of one suit on the flop
and
-Give me total number of each suit (last one I just dont want to do by hand).

Ask it, "if you're betting on one card to be River, which would you pick?"
Click to expand...
IMG_3751.webp
IMG_3752.webp
 
Q♠ × 6 11.1%

Not Great Ok GIF by Sky España

Excited Eddie Murphy GIF by Candy Cane Lane
 
See, that first AI answer is just missing the point. "Likely sample size variance" with no mention of autocorrelation, or the idea that adjascent events affect the likelihood of that event. It would be completely random if we're choosing a random hand in the tournament but the fact that its the ultimate last hand changes things; players may be betting or calling more on these boards due to the inclusion of that draw, explaining a sizable difference. If there's more than one of a suit there's higher backdoor/frontdoor equity, and players are more likely to win and lose big pots that may end the ME. The fact that its Clubs doesn't actually matter but its interesting that most boards had 2 or more, those just happened to be Clubs.

So now we're answering, when is the ME most likely to end? I assume this could be played out in GTO as well, players are more likely to bet and call when they have suited cards, especially with atleast one high card (explaining reduced showing for A/K/Q/Js). Baaa, this could be a rabbit hole. 70> 58 is significant enough and could have statistical significance. My follow ups would be reviewing how many of those 2/3 suited boards were clubs.

This is getting more and more boring, apologies. Its all random and I hope the 2 of hearts hits the River like a wrecking ball.
 
The fact that clubs represent a larger than normal percent of hands simply tells me that 54 hands is not a deep enough of a data set to wash out everyday variance.

...or players are more likely to fold clubs, increasing the likelihood that boards will be club rich. I'm leaning on variance, bit all options are possible until proven otherwise.
 

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