A buddy of mine was a hedge fund manager and he saw the writing on the wall in 2007 and sold out his entire personal portfolio before the crash in 2008. He came back into the market to ride the recovery. He's retired now (at age 44) and I met him for a poker game last month in London and we got a good chance to chat while the other players arrived. He told me that he just sold his entire portfolio and is holding on to cash. He said that there may be a max of 10% upside left in the market before there will be a crash.
His view may be a European/British-centric and also protecting his assets since he's retired but markets are global and the trends spread. I'm debating whether I should move my money out of the market. I lost 5% on Monday and while it's recovered some, the signs are of continued trade challenges and a slowing Chinese economy which will in turn impact the US economy. China is the US's biggest trading partner and Europe is already depressed and Brexit will definitely make it worse. The inverted bond yield shows the signs that the market is already pricing in short term depression.
Sell?
I'm also toying with the idea of moving a chunk of my 401k savings into bonds (from 10% of my holdings to 20%).
His view may be a European/British-centric and also protecting his assets since he's retired but markets are global and the trends spread. I'm debating whether I should move my money out of the market. I lost 5% on Monday and while it's recovered some, the signs are of continued trade challenges and a slowing Chinese economy which will in turn impact the US economy. China is the US's biggest trading partner and Europe is already depressed and Brexit will definitely make it worse. The inverted bond yield shows the signs that the market is already pricing in short term depression.
Sell?
I'm also toying with the idea of moving a chunk of my 401k savings into bonds (from 10% of my holdings to 20%).