AJs in the blinds, Hero might be a donkey here (7 Viewers)

[AlPresidente]

Check/call

 

[jbutler]

check calling here is pretty bad imo. you have the best hand a ton and there are a lot of draws MP could have been betting if he's an aggressive player. even if it's unlikely given his aggression, do you really want to leave open the window for it to check through if he's drawing and let him brick and fold the river?

bet $20-25. you'll get calls from pairs, straight draws and diamond draws. my view could change if you tell me that he reliably three-barrels with air, but absent that, it's a bet.

 

[courage]

The perfect turn card. Depends on hero's image. If solid, check raise; if aggro, lead out.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Check jam

 

[Ben]

Bet $30. He has random SC's that hit one pair here a lot, as well as OESDs 67, 9T, etc. He's going to check back most of those hands and we'll miss our value opportunity. This would be an AWESOME spot to get paid if we had led the flop...

 

[fish72s]

If we check the best hand then I still think we are likely to get that 1 bet out of him on the river anyway.
If we bet the worst hand, then we are opening ourselves up to a re-raise and probably pot-committing our whole $280.

Or is this the definition of 'Nit'?
(Go ahead, 'Like' this, I dare you.)

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

The definition of a nit is tanking for 2 minutes deciding whether or not to complete from the small blind with 9-10 off after it has been folded around to you. If this describes you, what can I say?

 

[Ben]

we are opening ourselves up to a re-raise and probably pot-committing our whole $280.

Or is this the definition of 'Nit'?
(Go ahead, 'Like' this, I dare you.)

You say that like that's a bad thing when he have (unlikely) TPTK and NFD on an unassuming board against an aggrodonk...

So, the answer to your question would be "yes."

 

[fish72s]

You remember that, huh? I think I had AJo that hand and not 9To.

The definition of a nit is tanking for 2 minutes deciding whether or not to complete from the small blind with 9-10 off after it has been folded around to you. If this describes you, what can I say?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I wouldn't know nits never show me hands they fold.

 

[DrStrange]

*** and now what ***

As a reminder:
"MP is a semi-loose, semi aggressive with $575. This guy is moderately profitable but has been on a multi-month heater which has improved his game. He has made some super sick bluffs the last few months and he is basking in the glow of success." He isn't a LAGtard or even a LAG. By this game's standards he is on the meek side.

Hero bets $25, MP snap raises to $75. Hero has $254 left behind prior to catching up to the bet. Pot is currently at $152.

So what should Hero do? Fold, call or raise? If raising how much? (and why if Hero isn't jamming)

DrStrange

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I think your bet looks weak, almost like a blocker bet here. Is villain capable of laying down an overpair to a jam? I say ship it, and if he does happen to call, river a diamond. You may be freerolling here against another AJ.

 

[kirchhausen]

I think if you are raising here you are jamming. Raising would be $179 on top with $202 in the pot, so what is the point in raising less. To call, you are getting nearly 3-1 odds, and if you range villain at exactly AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 88, 55, 33 you are getting 3-1 odds. Against this range you are +0.5 EV. Factor in a few bluffs, like 64ss or 67ss you are now +18 EV. and are 34% to win the hand.

All that said, I think you are likely behind here. If you think you can bluff villain off an over pair, I would shove. If he is too sticky I call. Then fold any non diamond, J or Ace river. If you hit an A or a J, check call. If you hit a diamond, bet as much as you think he will call.

 

[Ben]

Jam

 

[fish72s]

Too many outs to ever fold. I don't know why we would raise. MP has raised preflop, bet the flop and now raised us on the turn. TPTK is good but its still just one pair. The diamonds are a fall-back.
Call and either hope for a diamond, or hope villain only bets $50 on the river. If he goes all-in we are going to be in a pickle

 

[Bloody Marvelous]

The time for slow play is over. Just put it in there. If he folds we collect a nice pot, if he calls we're likely ahead, or at the least have outs.

 

[fish72s]

Its possible MP is bluffing with air, KQd or a big combo draw or it is possible he has another AJ (or KJ?), but barring that how often are we actually ahead here? What's he got? I think 99 and TT are out. He's rep'ing a set or overpair, or maybe AJ.
An all-in is another $200 into a $200 pot and we are probably only getting called if we are beat. Maybe a big draw or AJ calls but essentially we are bluffing. With the line that villain is taking, this doesn't seem like a good time to be bluffing to me.
Then again, a check-call on the flop and a 3-bet all-in on the turn would look very, very strong. Would he / should he lay down a one-pair hand? (I'm guessing No and Maybe.)

 

[DrStrange]

*** And now the river ***

Hero calls $50. $202 in the pot, heads-up. Hero has $204 back.

River is: < >

Action on hero. Bet or check, if betting how much?

DrStrange

 

[fish72s]

I think your bet looks weak.

You think every bet looks weak

*** And now the river ***

Hero calls $50. $202 in the pot, heads-up. Hero has $204 back.

River is: < >

Action on hero. Bet or check, if betting how much?

DrStrange

Shazam! Wish I'd have known that was coming. Now its going to be harder to get paid the max.
Should we go big and hope he has JJ, KK, KJ or QJd, or go small and hope to get at least some $$$?
Or check and hope he bluffs?

 

[kirchhausen]

Unless you think villain has a lot of bluffs in his range, I don't think checking is good, if he has anything at all with showdown value his should just be checking behind now that the flush got there.

I think maybe a smallish bet here might be the best strategy (say $70). Villain might read this as a weak attempt at pot control and shove over top. If not he is probably at least calling this bet. I think with his range he may be folding the river often to an open shove.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Shove. Or donk bet a weak looking blocking bet, to induce a shove.

 

[Bloody Marvelous]

His reraise may have been to get you to fold a flushdraw. If you bet big he'll likely fold. You'll probably get a call if the bet's small, but then that's all you're likely to get.

Checking is the best option. He may reconsider your holdings and assume you're playing a pair of 5s or 8s here, and try to get some more value. If he does we can reraise. If he doesn't, well that's what we get for playing like a sissy .

 

[atomiktoaster]

I'd try $50 and hope it looks like a set trying to bluff a flush and steal the pot. If you give him the option to check, I'd be surprised if he doesn't take it. Smallish bet seems most likely to induce a shove.

 

[fish72s]

Does villain know how to fold? Can he fold a set of jacks or kings for $200? or $100?
My guess is that a big bet is the most profitable in the long run even though he's probably folding most of the time.

But I also like the idea of the fake blocker bet to either get some $$ from a crying call or to induce a raise.
But I would make this really small. As in silly-small to get him really confused.
Go $25.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

$25 is too small and fishy. I agree with Atomik, making it the same size as before $50 looks like a blocker bet, and is most likely to induce a shove, if thats the route you are going for.

 

[DrStrange]

I would be interested in what we think about how villain is ranging Hero. This villain is ranging Hero, though I am not sure he is thinking any deeper than that.

Hero got a $75 no pair - no draw bluff picked off by third pair in the last thirty minuets. Should that affect hero's thinking?

DrStrange

 

[fish72s]

$50 might also look like the nut flush (our most likely hand) trying to get paid off.
$25 is meant to get him thinking about why we are betting so small rather than why we are betting at all.
Plus we might get a F**k It call from any random hand that would fold to $50.

 

[atomiktoaster]

Hero got in cheap and just sort of stuck around. Villain could have him on something as bad as K8o or A8o, possibly 33 or 55, even JJ. A5d (and AJd) has to be in that range as well, though.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

9d10d or 6d7d would have to be in that range as well, but I agree any good 8, or two pair, or AJ are in the range. I think sets are out, because hero would have reraised the turn.

 

[bergs]

I was jamming turn, but now I jam river. I think the smallish turn bet and call looks like a flush draw, but he either had something on the turn and might call a jam, or he had air on the turn and he's not calling $5. Go for gold.