I was looking today at a buy-it-now eBay listing for 20 off-white Paulson THC starbursts. The listing claims they are “mint,” though the photos clearly show some edge nicks, and “rarely up for sale,” though I bought a couple barrels of these a few months ago—mistakenly, thinking they were plain, bright White. Overall they do seem to be in above-average shape. Listing price: $45 + $5 shipping.
So: $50 for 20 starbursts in an unexceptional color, or $2.50 each.
All of the above, I mention as a preamble to the question: Have we reached the end of finding good deals on collectible chips?
The development of the web over the past quarter century has changed every industry which focuses on collectibility: antiques, art, coins, stamps, you name it. The rise of eBay and other auction sites (both high and low), along with the widespread availability of other price data, specifications, production histories, personal speciality sites, not to mention chat sites, means that the highly-specialized information once limited to hobbyists and serious collectors is now widely and readily available.
For example, a good friend who has been dealing in 19th Century American landscape paintings and portraits for over four decades says that his business has shifted dramatically in the past 15 years or so. He used to find new inventory at good prices via sheer legwork: Attending tons of obscure country estate sales, tag sales and auctions, keeping his eyes peeled, working contacts, using his hard-won knowledge and instincts along with persistence and word of mouth to find good deals on known artists, or to rediscover lesser-known figures—and then sell them at a nice profit to collectors. He was in the business of both hunting for value among known quantities, and creating new markets for artists whose talents had previously been under appreciated.
Now, this friend says, the deals and the discoveries have dried up. Everyone has seen Antiques Roadshow, and imagines they have a fortune lurking in grandma’s attic. They have Google and other search engines, to determine whether in fact that old dusty thing is a $5 painting or a $500,000 one. He still makes a living as a dealer, but the profit margins he says are getting narrower and narrower.
So this art-dealer friend has had to find new angles (e.g. buying castoffs from bigger dealers, who sometimes buy large lots of paintings from an estate just to acquire a handful of choice items within it, who then sell off the rest of the stuff they didn’t want cheaply. Another friend built an auction business by developing a relationship with a much larger, international house, which sends along items they handle for estates which they consider “beneath” them—generally good stuff, but worth less than $30-$40K.
Now, I have only been actively collecting for a couple of years. But it feels like for the main types of chips I collect that I came into at the very tail end of a once wide-open market. I got my base sets at (what now seem like) good prices, though at the time I was worried that I was overpaying. I’ve about doubled the size of my two main collections though small purchases on eBay, member-to-member sales here, and occasional finds on other vintage or auction sites. But in the past six months alone, there seems to be some major price inflation. The $2.50 off-white Starbursts above I would not have expected to see for sale for more than $1/each when I got started.
We saw this play out recently as a brand new member—who clearly had no clue about the value of her Paulson collection, and was here only to sell—tumbled onto the site, asked around, and eventually sold her big collection of Starbursts for what presumably was a solid price (since my reasonable-but-lower offer was rejected).
On the plus side, people can find stuff for sale which would never have come to our attention in a pre-Internet world. On the downside, it is hard to know where to look for deals. There are more sellers, and more opportunities to buy, than ever before. But almost no one is giving it away at less than true market value. And that value keeps creeping up, especially as deeper-pocketed collectors become attuned to a once-obscure market, and begin to pay prices which others once considered inconceivable. Then every seller starts to think: Rather than just sell these at cost, or a modest profit, or even a nice profit, I’m going to shoot for the moon and try to get Eff You Money.
So where can one still look for value? What for chip collectors is the equivalent of having an “edge” at a poker table? These are the main categories I can think of:
Maybe I’m way off base here, or exaggerating the problem. If so, I am sure people will say so. Just as The End of History has been declared many times for world events, probably there are many chapters left to write for chipping. But I do kind of think the chip “industry” and community of buyers and sellers has now reached some maturation/saturation point, where finding good deals is going to just get harder and harder.
[And I know, I know: TL;DR]
So: $50 for 20 starbursts in an unexceptional color, or $2.50 each.
All of the above, I mention as a preamble to the question: Have we reached the end of finding good deals on collectible chips?
The development of the web over the past quarter century has changed every industry which focuses on collectibility: antiques, art, coins, stamps, you name it. The rise of eBay and other auction sites (both high and low), along with the widespread availability of other price data, specifications, production histories, personal speciality sites, not to mention chat sites, means that the highly-specialized information once limited to hobbyists and serious collectors is now widely and readily available.
For example, a good friend who has been dealing in 19th Century American landscape paintings and portraits for over four decades says that his business has shifted dramatically in the past 15 years or so. He used to find new inventory at good prices via sheer legwork: Attending tons of obscure country estate sales, tag sales and auctions, keeping his eyes peeled, working contacts, using his hard-won knowledge and instincts along with persistence and word of mouth to find good deals on known artists, or to rediscover lesser-known figures—and then sell them at a nice profit to collectors. He was in the business of both hunting for value among known quantities, and creating new markets for artists whose talents had previously been under appreciated.
Now, this friend says, the deals and the discoveries have dried up. Everyone has seen Antiques Roadshow, and imagines they have a fortune lurking in grandma’s attic. They have Google and other search engines, to determine whether in fact that old dusty thing is a $5 painting or a $500,000 one. He still makes a living as a dealer, but the profit margins he says are getting narrower and narrower.
So this art-dealer friend has had to find new angles (e.g. buying castoffs from bigger dealers, who sometimes buy large lots of paintings from an estate just to acquire a handful of choice items within it, who then sell off the rest of the stuff they didn’t want cheaply. Another friend built an auction business by developing a relationship with a much larger, international house, which sends along items they handle for estates which they consider “beneath” them—generally good stuff, but worth less than $30-$40K.
Now, I have only been actively collecting for a couple of years. But it feels like for the main types of chips I collect that I came into at the very tail end of a once wide-open market. I got my base sets at (what now seem like) good prices, though at the time I was worried that I was overpaying. I’ve about doubled the size of my two main collections though small purchases on eBay, member-to-member sales here, and occasional finds on other vintage or auction sites. But in the past six months alone, there seems to be some major price inflation. The $2.50 off-white Starbursts above I would not have expected to see for sale for more than $1/each when I got started.
We saw this play out recently as a brand new member—who clearly had no clue about the value of her Paulson collection, and was here only to sell—tumbled onto the site, asked around, and eventually sold her big collection of Starbursts for what presumably was a solid price (since my reasonable-but-lower offer was rejected).
On the plus side, people can find stuff for sale which would never have come to our attention in a pre-Internet world. On the downside, it is hard to know where to look for deals. There are more sellers, and more opportunities to buy, than ever before. But almost no one is giving it away at less than true market value. And that value keeps creeping up, especially as deeper-pocketed collectors become attuned to a once-obscure market, and begin to pay prices which others once considered inconceivable. Then every seller starts to think: Rather than just sell these at cost, or a modest profit, or even a nice profit, I’m going to shoot for the moon and try to get Eff You Money.
So where can one still look for value? What for chip collectors is the equivalent of having an “edge” at a poker table? These are the main categories I can think of:
(1) The Ignorant: This would be deals from sellers who neither understand the value of what they have, and don’t bother to find out. Maybe someone’s unmarried uncle dies, and leaves behind a garage full of poker gear. His niece or nephew treats it as just stuff to put out at a yard sale, or on Craigslist. And somehow they don’t think to Google “value of old poker chips” or talk to an appraiser. Problem: These are increasingly few and far between. And if you don’t live nearby, you will probably miss the deals.
(2) The Impatient: There will always be sellers who either do not have the patience, or the interest, or the financial necessity to liquidate good chips at top value. They just want to get rid of them, or don’t have the time to research and properly sell what they have, or just don’t just need the money badly enough to try hard. As with sales by The Ignorant, finding these is likely to be a fluke.
(3) The Desperate: OTOH, one may sometimes run into sellers who just need some cash in a hurry, and knowingly part with chips (or other goods) below market value to get it. As with the previous two categories, such sales are less and less likely thanks to eBay and other sites. If you put a desirable collection up for sale, you can reap a windfall within a week or so; if you put a Buy It Now price on it, then you could cash on it within hours.
(4) Goodwill & Fair Trades: Within the chipping community, it appears that there are still opportunities to acquire something you want at a fair price by trade or other mutually-beneficial exchanges. Here, you’re not really getting a “deal” per se, but the profit element is taken out of the equation.
(5) Underdeveloped Markets: As with venture capital and other investments, sometimes you have to look much farther afield to find a deal, or identify some strange niche which others are overlooking. Say if, hypothetically, someone spotted some type of Bakelite or Catalin chip once made by a certain manufacturer, which had some under appreciated appeal, there appear to be tons and tons of those resin chips out there for cheap, waiting to be picked over... And maybe by promoting the history of this particular chip, and promoting its virtues, some kind of market could be redeveloped for them. (Unlikely, I know. Just trying to imagine an example.) But are there really any such neglected niches left to explore?
(2) The Impatient: There will always be sellers who either do not have the patience, or the interest, or the financial necessity to liquidate good chips at top value. They just want to get rid of them, or don’t have the time to research and properly sell what they have, or just don’t just need the money badly enough to try hard. As with sales by The Ignorant, finding these is likely to be a fluke.
(3) The Desperate: OTOH, one may sometimes run into sellers who just need some cash in a hurry, and knowingly part with chips (or other goods) below market value to get it. As with the previous two categories, such sales are less and less likely thanks to eBay and other sites. If you put a desirable collection up for sale, you can reap a windfall within a week or so; if you put a Buy It Now price on it, then you could cash on it within hours.
(4) Goodwill & Fair Trades: Within the chipping community, it appears that there are still opportunities to acquire something you want at a fair price by trade or other mutually-beneficial exchanges. Here, you’re not really getting a “deal” per se, but the profit element is taken out of the equation.
(5) Underdeveloped Markets: As with venture capital and other investments, sometimes you have to look much farther afield to find a deal, or identify some strange niche which others are overlooking. Say if, hypothetically, someone spotted some type of Bakelite or Catalin chip once made by a certain manufacturer, which had some under appreciated appeal, there appear to be tons and tons of those resin chips out there for cheap, waiting to be picked over... And maybe by promoting the history of this particular chip, and promoting its virtues, some kind of market could be redeveloped for them. (Unlikely, I know. Just trying to imagine an example.) But are there really any such neglected niches left to explore?
Maybe I’m way off base here, or exaggerating the problem. If so, I am sure people will say so. Just as The End of History has been declared many times for world events, probably there are many chapters left to write for chipping. But I do kind of think the chip “industry” and community of buyers and sellers has now reached some maturation/saturation point, where finding good deals is going to just get harder and harder.
[And I know, I know: TL;DR]
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