PAHWM - 1/3 at the Aria (22 Viewers)

[PokerDogDoc]

1/3, 8-Handed at the Aria during the WSOP
No straddle
HERO is UTG with $475
Villain is UTG+1 and the effective stack with $400

Villain is loose-aggressive with a high raise frequency but typical (low) 3-bet frequency for these stakes.

Villain rarely has true bluffs but he bets made hands aggressively… sometimes he has it at showdown, but he’s also frequently getting better hands to fold due to aggressive betting and check-raising.

UTG / Hero = and open raises to $10 (standard for the table)
UTG+1 / Villain = 3-bets small to $25
Folds around to Hero who __________ (folds / calls / 4-bets)

———

 

[Kam]

Hhmmm, think you can argue a trappy call and see if you smash the flop, or if bet 2x to 3x for $50-$75.

 

[PokerDogDoc]

I’ve gotta get some sleep so I’ll let this run tonight and pick it back up in the morning.

 

[DrStrange]

What is Hero's table image?

Hero's hand is a bit too good to fold, though a solid case for folding might be made if we range villain tightly enough. Also if hero reads villain's skill high enough, he might also have a fold. The villain read about ranging his three bet is critical and Hero's sample size is likely a very few hands.

Should we assume villain is paying attention? UTG raises should be better than average. Ditto for UTG+1 three-bets.

Hero is going to be OOP vs villain. Not sure how much of a sample size Hero can have on villain's three-bet frequency. Is hero ranging villain as QQ+, AKo (top 2%) or a bit looser? If Hero makes the villain's range top 1%, then it is a fold.

Let's keep Hero's range wide and flat. This hand has serious RIO risks, play it carefully. A respectful fold isn't out of the question if we give villain skills and a very tight three-bet range.

Hero should already be deciding if he intends to try bluffing after missing the flop. And if so, how to do it. If hero never bluffs here, folding becomes more attractive -=- DrStrange

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

Raise to $80

 

[JMC9389]

Four bet to $75

 

[WedgeRock]

I flat with a plan to fold to a reasonable c-bet unless we hit the flop.

I don't want to play OOP against this type of player with a drawing hand.

Call and re-evaluate post flop, proceeding with caution.

 

[suchj0sh]

Sounds like a good spot to call to me. If you hit the flop hard you can rely on an aggressive player to c-bet frequently, giving you a chance to get more money in on the flop.

 

[RofoPoker]

The 3-bet to $25 is basically a min-click. Most 1/3 players don't 3-bet small for value or to trap; a min-click at this level is almost always weakness. He wants to see how serious you are, i.e. "where he's at."

AKs is too good to fold, too vulnerable to flat. I think you're 4-betting here to at least $85, maybe a little more since you'll be OOP.

 

[Kam]

What is Hero's table image?

Hero's hand is a bit too good to fold, though a solid case for folding might be made if we range villain tightly enough. Also if hero reads villain's skill high enough, he might also have a fold. The villain read about ranging his three bet is critical and Hero's sample size is likely a very few hands.

Should we assume villain is paying attention? UTG raises should be better than average. Ditto for UTG+1 three-bets.

Hero is going to be OOP vs villain. Not sure how much of a sample size Hero can have on villain's three-bet frequency. Is hero ranging villain as QQ+, AKo (top 2%) or a bit looser? If Hero makes the villain's range top 1%, then it is a fold.

Let's keep Hero's range wide and flat. This hand has serious RIO risks, play it carefully. A respectful fold isn't out of the question if we give villain skills and a very tight three-bet range.

Hero should already be deciding if he intends to try bluffing after missing the flop. And if so, how to do it. If hero never bluffs here, folding becomes more attractive -=- DrStrange

Not sure I’d ever find a fold here, even against a classic Nitty OMC type. At this stack depth and that BB amount for an extra $15 I’m always making a call at least.

Where it’d get interesting is if you re-raise to the ~$80 and you get shoved on for a total $400, then it’d be tank time. But given players loose- aggressiveness info, I’d likely punt expecting it could be against a mid-high pocket pair but not a top 1% hand.

*i’m a decidedly break-even player so take my approach with a pinch of salt

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

At these stakes, crazy to just call a tiny 3 bet from an unknown, eh? A loose aggressive raises us to a small amount. Even if he doesn't 3bet too often I have to think this range has lots more than just KK/AA. If we call, we're playing OOP with a premium hand. Much rather raise. We can fold if we get 5 bet but for now we build a pot and play back with a hand that dominates some of his range.*

* = I suck at poker, so all of this isn't good advice.

 

[PokerDogDoc]

Is hero ranging villain as QQ+, AKo (top 2%) or a bit looser?

What is Hero's table image?

Hero’s image is solid, aggressive, and suspected to bluff (which I have), though no one’s called it yet.

Villain has shown aggression on good hands but not always top of range. Based on his play I put the villain on a fairly strong but wide range of 99+, 2 Broadway cards (suited or unsuited).

Villain almost always 3-bets wider to immediately apply pressure, but this is a tiny one.

I’m not ready to play for stacks preflop or lose villain with a big 4-bet if he’s semi-bluffing.

***
UTG / Hero = and open raises to $10 (standard for the table)
UTG+1 / Villain = 3-bets small to $25
Folds around to Hero who CALLS.
Pot is $54, SPR = 7

FLOP


Hero has a gut shot straight draw, backdoor flush draw, and 2 overs
Ranges are fairly close and I’m not sure if I’m ahead or behind, but I’ve got a world of possibilities.

HERO checks… I’m checking my entire range here in flow to see how the VILLAIN plays it.

VILLAIN bets $40

75% pot bet shows strength but the absolute dollar amount seems fair, especially given my hand and implied odds. Plus, VILLAIN loves to stab/overstab flops to apply pressure, even with A high and moderate made hands.

I’m never folding here and I see no reason to raise (better hands don’t fold and worse hands don’t call).
HERO calls to realize equity

TURN


Board is now


Hero still doesn’t have a made hand but has improved to a combo draw: gut shot straight and nut flush draws with 2 over cards.

Hero decides to ___________ (check or lead out).

 

[suchj0sh]

Check and lead the river if checked behind. Might check/shove the turn if villain bets.

 

[WedgeRock]

I would not categorize Villain's betting as aggressive, i.e. he's not trying to bet you out of the pot. He's likely has a hand, but not super strong.

I would opt for pot control and check the turn to him with a plan to call most bets.

 

[detroitdad]

I'm late to the party.

I would have 4 bet pre flop and probably led out on the flop.

The way the hand has played. I would check the turn and call most bets.

 

[ChaosRock]

Pre: 4-bet to $80. Calling is okay also. Never folding unless Villain is the Nittiest of all time.

Flop: don’t love the Q. Now we’re dominated by AQ, needing a K only (although K brings in AJ) and crushed by QQ, all three a good chunk of Villain’s 3-bet range. Fold for me. It’s okay calling for the J and the back door diamond.

Turn: check.

Edit: don’t see the point of leading the turn. What do we want to fold that is ahead of Hero? JJ-? Some of those will call anyways. Those hands will likely check back turn and Villain can fire river regardless if the flush gets there or not. Hero do not want to get shoved on the turn.

Edit 2: Actually, JJ not folding, TT and 99 got a set. So are we hoping to fold 88-?

 

[kmccormick100]

Just to mix things up on that turn that’s really good for our range (99, TT, KJ, 78s etc) I sometimes like a donk lead to add a little fold equity. Check calling is standard, but we’re basically relying on just the equity of our draws to the nuts vs adding some fold equity on a board that keeps getting scarier for the villain’s range. I think I might stab $85 here – you get to name your price to see the river, occasionally get a fold from villain and you can fold to a jam from him.

 

[DrStrange]

What does "solid: mean? Is hero LAG or TAG in broad strokes?

"99+" seems more like a TAG UTG opening raise range rather than an early position three bet range. Is Hero really thinking Villain 3-bets his entire opening raise range from UTG+1? Is the villain read skilled LAG rather than TAG?

 

[ChaosRock]

Just to mix things up on that turn that’s really good for our range (99, TT, KJ, 78s etc) I sometimes like a donk lead to add a little fold equity. Check calling is standard, but we’re basically relying on just the equity of our draws to the nuts vs adding some fold equity on a board that keeps getting scarier for the villain’s range. I think I might stab $85 here – you get to name your price to see the river, occasionally get a fold from villain and you can fold to a jam from him.

Do we ever have 99 or 78 here? And from my above post, what do expect Villain to fold that is ahead of us?

 

[PokerDogDoc]

What does "solid: mean? Is hero LAG or TAG in broad strokes?

Hero’s table image is TAG, but in reality is looser than that and leverages it in selective spots, opening wider and surprising opponents with those hands at showdown or getting folds on big river bet bluffs.

Do we ever have 99 or 78 here?

Yes, I would play those this way, though the table wouldn’t expect me to do that.

"99+" seems more like a TAG UTG opening raise range rather than an early position three bet range. Is Hero really thinking Villain 3-bets his entire opening raise range from UTG+1? Is the villain read skilled LAG rather than TAG?

Yes, this Villain would definitely 3-bet with this here … he loves putting people to the test with 3-bets even with only a moderate made hand or high card draw. What’s interesting here is that he’s done that using a much smaller raise amount with me (usually goes 4x).

 

[ChaosRock]

Yes, I would play those this way, though the table wouldn’t expect me to do that.

So you'd call a 75% pot bet on a QT6 flop on a 3-bet pot from UTG+1 with 99 and 87 without being too deep?

Not grilling you, btw... Just want to make sure we're talking about having those hands on the turn and not flop.

For me, I do not open 87 UTG. On the off chance I do, I don't call a 3-bet. On off chance I do, I fold to a flop bet with only a gutter that brings in a higher straight.

 

[JMC9389]

I'm late to the party.

I would have 4 bet pre flop and probably led out on the flop.

The way the hand has played. I would check the turn and call most bets.

This. But fold flop to a reraise.

 

[PokerDogDoc]

So you'd call a 75% pot bet on a QT6 flop on a 3-bet pot from UTG+1 with 99 and 87 without being too deep?

Yes to calling a small preflop 3-bet with 99, but not 87s. At these stakes it’s more about the absolute $ value than % of pot.

Would I open UTG with either 99 or 87s as a variance / loose open to try and smash the flop?… yes.

Here, I would have folded 87s (bottom of range) to the 3-bet.
99 would still be in, though opponents would be surprised by it.

 

[PokerDogDoc]

TURN


Board is now

HERO checks turn.

VILLAIN thinks for 15 seconds and bets $100.

Pot is now $234, SPR = 1

Villain has $235 behind

HERO ranges Villain to sets, two-pair, AQ and AJ, along with some bluffs (weak A’s), semi-bluffs (under pairs), and weak moderate made hands (QJ, JT, 98, etc) based on previously shown hands.

I’ve eliminated AA, KK, and AK from his range as he would have 3-bet bigger preflop. I’m interpreting that small 3-bet size as a bit of tentativeness, not trapping.

I feel with the nut flush draw and gunshot to the nut straight + 2 overs that if I hit I’m likely good vs. that range, my hand has about 30-33% equity.

(Someone want to run the numbers on that to confirm?)

So a $100 call to win a total of $334 gives 30% pot odds.

So even though I am probably behind, I’m getting the right odds…

HERO calls $100 and hopes to realize equity on the river.

RIVER is an interesting one


Full board is

Board doesn’t pair (Villain has no full houses) and HERO makes the A-high flush — but it’s only the 3rd nuts, losing to the Q-high straight flush and T-high straight flush).

Do I ever put the Villain on QJd or 76d?

HERO thinks for 30 seconds and ________ (shoves all in, leads for $100, checks)

*post your answer +/- reasoning

 

[ChaosRock]

GIN! Sort of, lol! Regardless, the money is getting in so we need to think what is the best way to get Villains money.

If I’m at Villain spot, the value you have are flushes, a few combos of KJ suited, set of T and AQ. Maybe QT. If he has an over pair would be bet? I don’t think so, he would be praying a AQ crying call. He could bet with QQ, although he bet flop too much. Maybe TT? I do t think he has many hands he would bet for value, really… And those hands are likely to call your shove. So from that side, I like the shove.

So can we get him to bluff, hoping you’d fold AQ? I don’t think so but it’s possible. Lots of Villain check value on the river…

So I like the shove.

Now, can he have QJd, sure, only one combo. 76d,
Only one combo also, is way less likely since Villain do not 3-bet 76s with the same frequency as QJs and doesn’t stab the flop with the same frequency either since QJd is top pair on the flop.

Regardless, I shove. If he has one of those two, gg.

 

[detroitdad]

GIN! Sort of, lol! Regardless, the money is getting in so we need to think what is the best way to get Villains money.

If I’m at Villain spot, the value you have are flushes, a few combos of KJ suited, set of T and AQ. Maybe QT. If he has an over pair would be bet? I don’t think so, he would be praying a AQ crying call. He could bet with QQ, although he bet flop too much. Maybe TT? I do t think he has many hands he would bet for value, really… And those hands are likely to call your shove. So from that side, I like the shove.

So can we get him to bluff, hoping you’d fold AQ? I don’t think so but it’s possible. Lots of Villain check value on the river…

So I like the shove.

Now, can he have QJd, sure, only one combo. 76d,
Only one combo also, is less likely S I do t think Villain 3-beta 76s with the same frequency as QJs and doesn’t stab the flop with the same frequency either since QJd is top pair on the flop.

Regardless, I shove. If he has one of those two, gg.

^^^^^^ lock it up!

 

[detroitdad]

Got the record, i would have probably gambled on the turn, put my loot in at that point.

 

[suchj0sh]

Got the record, i would have probably gambled on the turn, put my loot in at that point.

Same, I’d rip the turn. As played shove it in there.

 

[ChaosRock]

@detroitdad , @suchj0sh what would be your reason to check/shove the turn?

 

[detroitdad]

@detroitdad , @suchj0sh what would be your reason to check/shove the turn?

In some situations you can take the pot down right there, if you don't, you still get to gamble with a handful of outs to win!

I don't do this all the time. Sometimes you have too mix up your image.

FTR, I don't think I would win this pot with a shove, but I would probably try.

My story would have been a little different. I would have bet on the flop