The Retirement Planning/ Investment/ Savings Thread (4 Viewers)

[CraigT78]

Sometimes you get lucky but I’m not that guy. Pretty much every single short term punt I’ve made has lost me money. All the long term invest and leave have returned way more than I would have expected. Be it funds, individual stocks or real estate, long term investments have always returned well.

However I do like a gambol - I play poker after all - but it don’t play poker with my future. I’ll still make stupid punts though… but not with life changing money.

My $10k gambol for this year:

$5,000 SPIR
$5,000 NTLA

And an additional $5k in ASTS for the sweat.

Hoping I pick the next NVIDIA.

 

[Darson]

I’m waiting for Bitcoin to hit $60k then I’ll pile a bunch in there. That’s my major gambol for the next few years.

 

[Highli99]

Sometimes you get lucky but I’m not that guy. Pretty much every single short term punt I’ve made has lost me money. All the long term invest and leave have returned way more than I would have expected. Be it funds, individual stocks or real estate, long term investments have always returned well.

However I do like a gambol - I play poker after all - but it don’t play poker with my future. I’ll still make stupid punts though… but not with life changing money.

This is the right mindset. I had an uncle who used to criticize me for occasionally playing poker in casinos for a few hundred bucks. Same uncle put his ENTIRE 401k into Wachovia right before it went to zero. I’m like…who’s the real degen here unc.

I’m waiting for Bitcoin to hit $60k then I’ll pile a bunch in there. That’s my major gambol for the next few years.

I’d suggest just DCA into BTC and keep the %reasonable for your portfolio. Hard to call bottoms. If you’re holding long term no need to time it perfectly. I watched it go from 60 to 15 to 124 in the span of a couple of years. Got my average cost to a very good number and I’m long term bullish.

Also done well with SOL and HYPE.

 

[CraigT78]

This is the right mindset. I had an uncle who used to criticize me for occasionally playing poker in casinos for a few hundred bucks. Same uncle put his ENTIRE 401k into Wachovia right before it went to zero. I’m like…who’s the real degen here unc.



I’d suggest just DCA into BTC and keep the %reasonable for your portfolio. Hard to call bottoms. If you’re holding long term no need to time it perfectly. I watched it go from 60 to 15 to 124 in the span of a couple of years. Got my average cost to a very good number and I’m long term bullish.

Also done well with SOL and HYPE.

Lol, I'm never buying anything with the ticker HYPE

 

[Highli99]

Lol, I'm never buying anything with the ticker HYPE

Hyperliquid is the biggest perpetual futures market in the world. 11 employees generating over $1 billion in annual profit from fees. HYPE is the native token for their crypto based exchange. Lots of WSJ article about them. I assure you this is not a silly coin.

 

[Highli99]

Lol, I'm never buying anything with the ticker HYPE

Article in today’s wsj

 

[rum3002576]

Lol, I'm never buying anything with the ticker HYPE

just go all in

 

[CraigT78]

Hyperliquid is the biggest perpetual futures market in the world. 11 employees generating over $1 billion in annual profit from fees. HYPE is the native token for their crypto based exchange. Lots of WSJ article about them. I assure you this is not a silly coin.

Well they should have picked a better name

 

[CraigT78]

Hyperliquid is the biggest perpetual futures market in the world. 11 employees generating over $1 billion in annual profit from fees. HYPE is the native token for their crypto based exchange. Lots of WSJ article about them. I assure you this is not a silly coin.

Yikes.

Traders say they are drawn to the fact that Hyperliquid doesn’t require identity verification or standard background checks, a contrast to the strict identity rules enforced by traditional brokerages and stock exchanges.

Hyperliquid said in its terms of use that it blocks U.S. traders and bars any circumvention of this restriction, including by VPNs.

Add to it that it's just a giant gambler paradise - I'm out. I'll stick to boring investments.

 

[CraigT78]

Boring investments go brrrrrr

 

[MrCatPants]

Boring investments go brrrrrr
View attachment 1686814
View attachment 1686815

Everyone is a genius in a bull market

My liberation day chart looks exact opposite....i hedged with a bunch of puts and felt like an absolute genius until i refreshed my phone a couple days later when the tarriff pause went into place. I thought my phone was bugged. Luckily i had already sold half my hedges but the other half I continued rolling with hurt. Never lost so much paper money in seconds and probably never will again.

 

[DrStrange]

I am with @CraigT78. Boring is the place to be for your retirement money. While he forgot to put the metrics and titles on the graphs - The first graph is the results of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 rose 70% the last three years, not accounting for dividends. "Safe", boring and easy. Buy it once and pretty much forget about it.

It is hard for active investors to beat the indexes. Oh sure, we will hear stories. Glorious gains that make +70% seem like nothing. There are those few who can beat the indexes, but most people make painful mistakes that overwhelm their lucky periods.

My S&P 500 holdings has made me a bit more than 5% annually over my lifetime, after inflation but before taxes. 5% real annual growth seems pretty small. It does put in perspective how amazing the 70% earned the last three years really is.

Also note the indexes are tax efficient. Most of my gains aren't taxed until I sell the investment. And when I die, all of my taxable gains are forgiven. Pretty sweet deal.

Have fun with your "fun" money. We should treat our retirement money with the respect and trepidation it deserves. A bulging retirement fund fuels a pretty nice retirement lifestyle. I highly recommend it! -=- DrStrange

 

[Highli99]

I am with @CraigT78. Boring is the place to be for your retirement money. While he forgot to put the metrics and titles on the graphs - The first graph is the results of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 rose 70% the last three years, not accounting for dividends. "Safe", boring and easy. Buy it once and pretty much forget about it.

It is hard for active investors to beat the indexes. Oh sure, we will hear stories. Glorious gains that make +70% seem like nothing. There are those few who can beat the indexes, but most people make painful mistakes that overwhelm their lucky periods.

My S&P 500 holdings has made me a bit more than 5% annually over my lifetime, after inflation but before taxes. 5% real annual growth seems pretty small. It does put in perspective how amazing the 70% earned the last three years really is.

Also note the indexes are tax efficient. Most of my gains aren't taxed until I sell the investment. And when I die, all of my taxable gains are forgiven. Pretty sweet deal.

Have fun with your "fun" money. We should treat our retirement money with the respect and trepidation it deserves. A bulging retirement fund fuels a pretty nice retirement lifestyle. I highly recommend it! -=- DrStrange

I agree with this. Perhaps the bulging retirement fund could even support 4 betting AK suited now and again.

 

[DrStrange]

Let's not go crazy with reckless decisions

 

[ekricket]

I am with @CraigT78. Boring is the place to be for your retirement money. While he forgot to put the metrics and titles on the graphs - The first graph is the results of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 rose 70% the last three years, not accounting for dividends. "Safe", boring and easy. Buy it once and pretty much forget about it.

It is hard for active investors to beat the indexes. Oh sure, we will hear stories. Glorious gains that make +70% seem like nothing. There are those few who can beat the indexes, but most people make painful mistakes that overwhelm their lucky periods.

My S&P 500 holdings has made me a bit more than 5% annually over my lifetime, after inflation but before taxes. 5% real annual growth seems pretty small. It does put in perspective how amazing the 70% earned the last three years really is.

Also note the indexes are tax efficient. Most of my gains aren't taxed until I sell the investment. And when I die, all of my taxable gains are forgiven. Pretty sweet deal.

Have fun with your "fun" money. We should treat our retirement money with the respect and trepidation it deserves. A bulging retirement fund fuels a pretty nice retirement lifestyle. I highly recommend it! -=- DrStrange

I agree. There’s no point in being risky just because it’s trendy at the moment.

 

[CraigT78]

I am with @CraigT78. Boring is the place to be for your retirement money. While he forgot to put the metrics and titles on the graphs - The first graph is the results of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 rose 70% the last three years, not accounting for dividends. "Safe", boring and easy. Buy it once and pretty much forget about it.

It is hard for active investors to beat the indexes. Oh sure, we will hear stories. Glorious gains that make +70% seem like nothing. There are those few who can beat the indexes, but most people make painful mistakes that overwhelm their lucky periods.

My S&P 500 holdings has made me a bit more than 5% annually over my lifetime, after inflation but before taxes. 5% real annual growth seems pretty small. It does put in perspective how amazing the 70% earned the last three years really is.

Also note the indexes are tax efficient. Most of my gains aren't taxed until I sell the investment. And when I die, all of my taxable gains are forgiven. Pretty sweet deal.

Have fun with your "fun" money. We should treat our retirement money with the respect and trepidation it deserves. A bulging retirement fund fuels a pretty nice retirement lifestyle. I highly recommend it! -=- DrStrange

This first graph was my IRA, the second graph is 401k.

But yes, I'm mostly in index funds. I do have some fun "bets" like a bunch of NVIDIA that I bought with profits from META. That was just my fun money and it's done very well (15x). If I understood the things @MrCatPants and @Highli99
Talk about, it might have been more, but I'm just a simple smooth brain idiot.

 

[Poker Zombie]

When giving advice I always lead with "buy index funds". That said, I have very little in index funds (~8%). I enjoy going over earning reports and news stories. I like knowing what my money is doing. It's not a past-time for everybody.

Then again, my individual stocks largely look like a sample set from index funds, with the largest % of my portfolio being GOOG (Alphabet aka Google), AMZN (Amazon) and ETN (Eaton a manufacturer of electrical systems and power management equipment).

It's a blue chip sample set!

 

[DrStrange]

Zen to calm future souls . . . .

The S&P has risen 70% the last three years. The Nasdaq has risen 84%. Inflation totaled 10%, meaning folks made 60-75% after inflation over three years rather than the 15% expected.

Inevitably the markets are going to have a bad year(s), maybe sometime soon. When we next have a big down year - say -20% including inflation. We will all be solidly ahead of the long-term market average and shouldn't panic or make ill-advised fearful decisions.

Think of it like a soft patch in an otherwise amazing session of poker. You can't win them all, either at the table or in the markets. -=- DrStrange

 

[BNM]

Zen to calm future souls . . . .

The S&P has risen 70% the last three years. The Nasdaq has risen 84%. Inflation totaled 10%, meaning folks made 60-75% after inflation over three years rather than the 15% expected.

Inevitably the markets are going to have a bad year(s), maybe sometime soon. When we next have a big down year - say -20% including inflation. We will all be solidly ahead of the long-term market average and shouldn't panic or make ill-advised fearful decisions.

Think of it like a soft patch in an otherwise amazing session of poker. You can't win them all, either at the table or in the markets. -=- DrStrange

Volatility is natural and part of the process. That’s why keeping emotion (fear and greed) out of the equation is critical, and so darned hard since it’s contrary to our DNA. So, for 95% of the world, DCA into S&P index funds is the way to go.

 

[ekricket]

Zen to calm future souls . . . .

The S&P has risen 70% the last three years. The Nasdaq has risen 84%. Inflation totaled 10%, meaning folks made 60-75% after inflation over three years rather than the 15% expected.

Billionaires

I believe that is the term for those that invested in the market instead of Starbucks coffees

 

[CraigT78]

Billionaires

I believe that is the term for those that invested in the market instead of Starbucks coffees

It's a shame I really enjoy avocado toast and foofoo coffee - otherwise I'd be in a yacht outside of Monaco right now.

 

[ekricket]

It's a shame I really enjoy avocado toast and foofoo coffee - otherwise I'd be in a yacht outside of Monaco right now.

It’s about experiences, not some far off future

 

[ekricket]

It's a shame I really enjoy avocado toast and foofoo coffee - otherwise I'd be in a yacht outside of Monaco right now.

Assuming a combined daily cost of \(\$12\) for a coffee and toast over 30 years, you would save \(\$131,400\)in pure cash. If you invested those daily savings in an index fund with a conservative 7% annual return, compound interest would grow that amount to roughly \(\$386,000\). [1, 2]
Here is how the breakdown looks depending on what you do with the money over that 30-year span:

1. If you just put it in cash under a mattress

• Daily Cost: \(\$12\) per day
• Yearly Cost: \(\$4,380\)
• 30-Year Total: \(\$131,400\)
• The Verdict: You have exactly what you saved, minus the long-term effects of inflation. [1]

2. If you invest the money (Compound Growth)
By putting the \(\$12\) day (\(\sim \$365\)/month) into investments like an S&P 500 Index Fund or long-term stocks, your money multiplies significantly through interest. [1, 2]

• At a 5% average annual return: \(\sim \$265,000\)
• At a 7% average annual return: \(\sim \$386,000\)
• At a 10% average annual return: \(\sim \$692,000\)
• The Verdict: The power of compound interest turns a small daily luxury into a massive retirement nest egg.

 

[fsupolo]

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."

Peter Lynch

 

[TX_Golf_N_Poker]

Zen to calm future souls . . . .

The S&P has risen 70% the last three years. The Nasdaq has risen 84%. Inflation totaled 10%, meaning folks made 60-75% after inflation over three years rather than the 15% expected.

Not disagreeing with what you are saying overall. But I don't know anybody who expects to only make 15% in three years. I think even the super cautious with everything in only T-bills is going to do that or better.

 

[MrCatPants]

Not disagreeing with what you are saying overall. But I don't know anybody who expects to only make 15% in three years. I think even the super cautious with everything in only T-bills is going to do that or better.

inflation adjusted - real gains.

 

[TX_Golf_N_Poker]

It's a shame I really enjoy avocado toast and foofoo coffee - otherwise I'd be in a yacht outside of Monaco right now.

DiM?

 

[TX_Golf_N_Poker]

inflation adjusted - real gains.

That doesn't change my point. I don't know anyone who's investing in the market and expecting to only make 4.5-5% per year.

I don't personally care for index funds because by definition they include a composite of both the good and the bad performers. But I also understand people who don't want to spend as much time managing their portfolio as I do.

 

[DrStrange]

It is 5% per year after inflation. The nominal yield on a 30-year Tbill is ~5% The inflation rate for the last year is 3.8%. Giving us a 1.2% after inflation return on our Tbill. Safety is a mirage - that Tbill may actually lose money this year after taxes and inflation are considered depending on your tax situation.

I appreciate people sneer at 5% after inflation for accepting a standard level of market risk. Warren Buffet could dependably beat 5%/year as can a very few other investors over the long term. Typically, you need to take extra risks to earn extraordinary returns

The last three years have been an outlier. I am sure many people made out exceptionally well. Seems so easy when everything is running hot. The risk class of investments has had exceptional results

Let me assure you that my market expectations are +5% annually after inflation - so at least you know one person. I hold index funds. How can I expect better than market results holding that kind of asset class?

I cheer on people who try to beat the market. Some will succeed, most don't. Stock picking mutual funds pay their experts exceptionally well. They have resources none of us can match. Of course, these resources are paid for by the investors. Maybe one guy working on a pc part time can do better just because their investment expenses are almost zero.

A 5% per year real return is a fine result. Not exceptional, but acceptable to me. Grats! for those who can do better. Just be mindful that you are very much the expectational performer -=- DrStrange

 

[ekricket]

That doesn't change my point. I don't know anyone who's investing in the market and expecting to only make 4.5-5% per year.

I don't personally care for index funds because by definition they include a composite of both the good and the bad performers. But I also understand people who don't want to spend as much time managing their portfolio as I do.

This is why I don’t play the lottery unless it’s more than a billion dollars. It’s just not worth it for a paltry few hundred million.