Solver hates my turn & river play - thoughts? (2 Viewers)

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boltonguy

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This time we're back to our weekday 10NL Blitz session. Only 17 hands on V so HUD stats aren't relevant.
Folds to V in BN who RFI 4BB. This is bigger than normal and there are a lot of sizing tells in the pool IMHO.
Normally I would 3! 99 in SB but because of this sizing I decide to flat.
I only have 3 hands on the BB so hard to tell how often he is squeezing but given the action I am not expecting a squeeze.
BB does fold so we're going to a flop and hero drills a set.

1678833858997.png


Flop X through - which I think is a bit odd given V's preflop sizing so my spidey sense is up.

1678833884970.png


Turn is a blank and Hero leads for 1/2 pot. I was surprised - solver never usies this sizing. My thinking was that the X could have been:
1. a whiff on the flop (most likely) OR
2. a club draw looking to see a free card to realize quity (slightly likely) OR
3. a very strong hand like JJ trying to let me catch up on the turn (least likely).

So I choose to bet 1/2 pot here because I have concerns about betting larger and getting a fold when I want V to stay in the pot and put money in.
In general i think the solver fast-plays because if V doesnt have a hand no more money's going in no matter how small we bet and when V does have a hand we maximize value by fast playing. But when flop X around I'm thinking its very likely that V whiffed.
Anyone have any thoughts on sizing in this spot?

I gave the solver 4 bet sizes on this flop (the total solve took 40 minutes!): check, 0.5 pot, pot and 1.5 pot.
The solver either X 70% of the time or bets 1.5x pot 30% of the time.

Maybe this is because the range is 22 - 99 (as I would 3! TT+ even to the 4BB pre-flop sizing). And in solver-land the villain knows this range perfectly so the overbet with 99 and 66 are balanced by similar overbets with 22/33/44? So maybe given the limited ranges what the solver chooses doesnt matter in this particular spot?

1678835870868.png
 
I agree with the solver here. I'd charge the club draws and overcards. I like a 3/4 pot bet to a brick turn. Lots of river cards can come out that hero would hate here.
 
Know in advance that I am a lazy poker player. Solvers, huds, chart ranges, online poker sites and tutorials are not my thing.

I got the gist of your question regarding Hero's bet sizing on the turn. My immediate question is why did Hero check the flop?
 
Mojo1312 said:
Know in advance that I am a lazy poker player. Solvers, huds, chart ranges, online poker sites and tutorials are not my thing.

I got the gist of your question regarding Hero's bet sizing on the turn. My immediate question is why did Hero check the flop?
Click to expand...
There's little value in betting. Unless it's for protection against a flop bad for hero's range, I'm checking almost every holding in this scenario out of position. I'd check raise in this specific scenario to a bet.
 
Checking a set on the flop after calling what Hero describes as a disproportionate pre-flop raise OOP with the hopes of check raising is not the optimal play in my opinion. By not betting, Hero not only losing the opportunity to get information, he is losing a street of value. Half pot size bet seems appropriate because it builds a larger pot for a pot size bet on the turn.

Does that make sense?
 
Mojo1312 said:
Checking a set on the flop after calling what Hero describes as a disproportionate pre-flop raise OOP with the hopes of check raising is not the optimal play in my opinion. By not betting, Hero not only losing the opportunity to get information, he is losing a street of value. Half pot size bet seems appropriate because it builds a larger pot for a pot size bet on the turn.

Does that make sense?
Click to expand...
Gotcha. If that's the route one would like to go, I'd even consider a really small (1/4 to 1/3) pot size bet to induce a raise from the large size bettor. Then drop the hammer. I have no issue leading out against a sticky player out of position with this hand, but it's tough to know how to proceed if there's no real read on the villain here.
 
JMC9389 said:
Gotcha. If that's the route one would like to go, I'd even consider a really small (1/4 to 1/3) pot size bet to induce a raise from the large size bettor. Then drop the hammer. I have no issue leading out against a sticky player out of position with this hand, but it's tough to know how to proceed if there's no real read on the villain here.
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I agree - I would only go 3BB to try to induce and if V folds to that donk, well we werent getting much value anyways ...
 
I am skeptical on Jacks. It is possible, but there is not enough history to justify putting such a narrow range on him. We do not know if Villain is the type of player who would min raise an OESD.

The question is if we are calling the min raise, what are our plans on the river?
 
No answer to the above. So unless I am wrong, our intended action after calling the min raise in order to see what develops is to check the river. Correct? What other line is there? Surely we are not planning to check raise. Are we hoping for the case nine?

Is this a brag thread where our Hero got away from pocket jacks, thereby beating the solver by losing the minimum? Or did our Hero get blown off his winning hand? Did our Villain complete his draw on the river?

Seems like their is little appetite among viewers of this thread to put themselves in Hero's spot. Time to get our chips in.
 
Hero does decide to call. On one hand could be JJ on the other hand maybe AcJx. Dont want to raise into the latter and get a fold; dont want to raise into the former and light money on fire. 3 combos of JJ and 3 combos of AcJx out there I think so that doesnt really help; I think we are either way ahead or way behind here and so IMHO calling is the right play.

River pairs the board and gives us a boat. Hero?

1678882277912.png
 
River changes nothing. Considering how passively we played on the flop and turn, my guess is that we are going to now check the river.
 
Im betting that river, 3/4 of the pot

JJ is raising us
AJ is calling us
J9suited it even a possibility but unlikely
AA, KK, QQ all have two pairs now and might find a call
 
Mojo1312 said:
Checking a set on the flop after calling what Hero describes as a disproportionate pre-flop raise OOP with the hopes of check raising is not the optimal play in my opinion. By not betting, Hero not only losing the opportunity to get information, he is losing a street of value. Half pot size bet seems appropriate because it builds a larger pot for a pot size bet on the turn.

Does that make sense?
Click to expand...
We are almost always checking range (every hand we hold) on the flop to the preflop aggressor. Do you incorporate a lot of donk leads into preflop aggressor in your overall game? Would suggest to not do that unless you have a way of balancing. So for example, you can lead with 99 here some of the time (would suggest very small bet) but *only* if you are also balancing this out with hands like T8, QT and clubs. This balanced range allows us to lead without getting taken advantage of by an aggressive villain.

Generally though, we should be checking flop and either check raising or check calling to continue to trap.
 
JMC9389 said:
I just call and see what develops. Action to this point reeks of jacks.
Click to expand...
If villain has JJ, good for them, we are just going broke. I think it is a mistake to worry about monsters under the bed and find the 1 single hand that beats us (losing value to all of the rest of the hands that we beat). I have said this a lot on other strategy forums, but if you hit a hand as strong as 2nd set (2nd nuts), our sole focus should be on extracting value and not on how to get away from a super cooler. In the long run that kind of thought process is just lighting money on fire. Villain could *easily* have AA/KK/QQ/AJ/KJ but also a hand like 66 that raises pre, checks flop and then smashes the turn. We have to figure out how to get value here.
 
boltonguy said:
Hero does decide to call. On one hand could be JJ on the other hand maybe AcJx. Dont want to raise into the latter and get a fold; dont want to raise into the former and light money on fire. 3 combos of JJ and 3 combos of AcJx out there I think so that doesnt really help; I think we are either way ahead or way behind here and so IMHO calling is the right play.

River pairs the board and gives us a boat. Hero?

View attachment 1099727
Click to expand...
As played we have to check river and go for a large check-raise here. I would not have minded a 3bet on the turn tbh but as played I'm hoping to get a large check-raise in. If villain bets 1/2 pot or less, it's a serious mistake to just call here. If villain pots or overbets then I can talk myself into a call.
 
Senzrock said:
We are almost always checking range (every hand we hold) on the flop to the preflop aggressor. Do you incorporate a lot of donk leads into preflop aggressor in your overall game? Would suggest to not do that unless you have a way of balancing. So for example, you can lead with 99 here some of the time (would suggest very small bet) but *only* if you are also balancing this out with hands like T8, QT and clubs. This balanced range allows us to lead without getting taken advantage of by an aggressive villain.

Generally though, we should be checking flop and either check raising or check calling to continue to trap.
Click to expand...

Your question is am I donk leading into the pre-flop aggressor heads up with a set after his button raise two orbits into the game? Yes. I am foolish that way.
 
Mojo1312 said:
Your question is am I donk leading into the pre-flop aggressor heads up with a set two orbits into the game? Yes. I am foolish that way.
Click to expand...
Sounds like you would be easy to play against in that case lol - did you see my other comments? Are you leading here with a broader range than just the nuts or just strong hands and hoping no one notices? I guess it is Blitz poker but your comment doesn't seem limited to the format?
 
Senzrock said:
We are almost always checking range (every hand we hold) on the flop to the preflop aggressor. Do you incorporate a lot of donk leads into preflop aggressor in your overall game? Would suggest to not do that unless you have a way of balancing. So for example, you can lead with 99 here some of the time (would suggest very small bet) but *only* if you are also balancing this out with hands like T8, QT and clubs. This balanced range allows us to lead without getting taken advantage of by an aggressive villain.

Generally though, we should be checking flop and either check raising or check calling to continue to trap.
Click to expand...

Hero does decide to lead small here, 6.7BB or about 1/4 pot. Here's my thinking (and it may not be sound). My call of his turn raise does look strong so:

- I do not want to X and have V X behind here as my hand is too strong: Maybe there is a small chance that V decided to X/R a FD or 78 as a semi bluff on the turn owing to my small size. If he has missed, he will likely X behind especially now that the board has paired. If he has a weaker hand maybe he will call a small bet. Lets go for some value from a worse hand that would X behind like AcJx.

- I do not want to bet too big and get re-raised for my whole stack given the small concern about JJ. If I bet 20BB, pot is 47BB and V could easily put me all in which would be super-strong. I'd sigh call but wouldnt feel great. Avoiding being put all in by a hand that beats me.

- If I bet smaller it has a few possible benefits: first, maybe a worse hand does call and second, maybe V sees this as a sign of weakness again and raises with a worse hand. With my small bet of about 7bb, pot will be 34BB. If he jams I can decide to get away cheap. If he raises to less than a jam I will call.

Thoughts on this rationale? Definitely not GTO - both the solver & snowie hate it ...
Hero leads for 6.7BB or about 1/4 pot. V does raise to 37.5BB or about 4.5x. Hero?

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boltonguy said:
Hero does decide to lead small here, 6.7BB or about 1/4 pot. Here's my thinking (and it may not be sound). My call of his turn raise does look strong so:

- I do not want to X and have V X behind here as my hand is too strong: Maybe there is a small chance that V decided to X/R a FD or 78 as a semi bluff on the turn owing to my small size. If he has missed, he will likely X behind especially now that the board has paired. If he has a weaker hand maybe he will call a small bet. Lets go for some value from a worse hand that would X behind like AcJx.

- I do not want to bet too big and get re-raised for my whole stack given the small concern about JJ. If I bet 20BB, pot is 47BB and V could easily put me all in which would be super-strong. I'd sigh call but wouldnt feel great. Avoiding being put all in by a hand that beats me.

- If I bet smaller it has a few possible benefits: first, maybe a worse hand does call and second, maybe V sees this as a sign of weakness again and raises with a worse hand. With my small bet of about 7bb, pot will be 34BB. If he jams I can decide to get away cheap. If he raises to less than a jam I will call.

Thoughts on this rationale? Definitely not GTO - both the solver & snowie hate it ...
Hero leads for 6.7BB or about 1/4 pot. V does raise to 37.5BB or about 4.5x. Hero?

View attachment 1099814
Click to expand...
Yeah I don't understand the small lead on the river after getting raised on the turn tbh. Would be checking full range and then check raising. As played it's just a call here.
 
boltonguy said:
Hero does decide to lead small here, 6.7BB or about 1/4 pot. Here's my thinking (and it may not be sound). My call of his turn raise does look strong so:

- I do not want to X and have V X behind here as my hand is too strong: Maybe there is a small chance that V decided to X/R a FD or 78 as a semi bluff on the turn owing to my small size. If he has missed, he will likely X behind especially now that the board has paired. If he has a weaker hand maybe he will call a small bet. Lets go for some value from a worse hand that would X behind like AcJx.

- I do not want to bet too big and get re-raised for my whole stack given the small concern about JJ. If I bet 20BB, pot is 47BB and V could easily put me all in which would be super-strong. I'd sigh call but wouldnt feel great. Avoiding being put all in by a hand that beats me.

- If I bet smaller it has a few possible benefits: first, maybe a worse hand does call and second, maybe V sees this as a sign of weakness again and raises with a worse hand. With my small bet of about 7bb, pot will be 34BB. If he jams I can decide to get away cheap. If he raises to less than a jam I will call.

Thoughts on this rationale? Definitely not GTO - both the solver & snowie hate it ...
Hero leads for 6.7BB or about 1/4 pot. V does raise to 37.5BB or about 4.5x. Hero?

View attachment 1099814
Click to expand...
Jam.

Like @Senzrock says, if they have Jack's you're going broke and good for them. I only snuffed it out because this hand had a thread dedicated to it lol. In a live game, I can't get my chips in fast enough.

I like a small blocker bet like you did as played because the villain is doing exactly what you want here and are inducing a raise to get max value, provided of course they don't hold the one hand that beats you. Even if that's the case, you shake it off and rebuy.

My suspicion of Jack's is high here only because I would do the same thing. I'd preflop raise a little larger with these non premium but still strong holdings. I'd do this with 6's too....
 
JMC9389 said:
Jam.

Like @Senzrock says, if they have Jack's you're going broke and good for them. I only snuffed it out because this hand had a thread dedicated to it lol. In a live game, I can't get my chips in fast enough.

I like a small blocker bet like you did as played because the villain is doing exactly what you want here and are inducing a raise to get max value, provided of course they don't hold the one hand that beats you. Even if that's the case, you shake it off and rebuy.

My suspicion of Jack's is high here only because I would do the same thing. I'd preflop raise a little larger with these non premium but still strong holdings. I'd do this with 6's too....
Click to expand...
Yeah makes sense. Other thing to think about re: the flop is that it's a fairly wet board right? Lots of flush draws and straight draws so often a villain will want to bet that flop even with a hand as strong as JJ. Even if that's true say 25-30% of the time when villain has JJ, it's just another reason to fist pump get it in here.
 

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