Hand Analysis - AKo vs AQs (1 Viewer)

[MoarChips]

Looking for a bit of guidance on this online hand I played recently in $0.02/$0.05 ($0.02 ante). I have AKo and the villain shows AQs at showdown. Is this just a cooler or could/should I have lost less by checking one of the streets or changing bet sizing? Not much info on the villain but my read was that they missed their flush draw. I think I even put them on a paired ace given they called such large bet sizes.

Any questions, advice or insight would be appreciated. Thanks!

 

[Eriks]

First of all, don’t reveal the entire hand up front (especially not villain’s hand). If you want a good analysis, post it street by street before any action has happened. Include reads and other useful info.

I don’t understand preflop. Looks like villain is the btn which would make you the bb. Yet action suggests you open from the first position.

If you think he’s got a bunch of suited aces preflop and is willing to call all the way with any Ax of clubs, just chalk it up to a cooler. He probably has KQcc and QTcc and maybe even worse flush draws as well in that case. I never play online anymore but I would imagine there still are plenty of button clickers at these levels.

 

[MoarChips]

Ok thanks for the feedback! I've never posted a hand analysis before so I'll keep those suggestions for the next time. To answer your question, villain was BB and I was BTN but because SB straddled for $0.10 I was first to act and opened to $0.40.

 

[Kentucky]

Pre-Flop is pretty standard. It’s notable in retrospect that V. called with AQs in position when I’d expect them to 3! with that hand.

Flop. On a two Broadway two tone flop I would bet range for ~$.35. But I’m not against the big bet.

Turn. This is a brick that shouldn’t help anybody. Big bet is fine.

River. This may be a bit ambitious. We chop with AK, and lose to AQ, AJ, K10 and 44 which could all play this way. Real question is will A10 or worse call you down here? Axcc will call the turn, but will it call the river? Maybe? It’s less than 1 SPR, but I’m not sure.

Overall I think it’s a bit of a cooler - Axcc could shove with the pair plus draw on the flop and you’d call it off - the money could have gone in anyway. But as played I think the river jam is a little thin. The real question is am I good enough to check-fold to a shove on the river? I’m not sure.

**Edit… Wait. We’re in position. So we can’t check-call. Hmmm. Meh. It’s not the worst bet at 5NL… but for real, what hands are you expecting to call? Maybe we can find the check back..?

 

[grandmeme]

Extremely standard hand. Nothing to worry about

 

[MoarChips]

@Kentucky as soon as I shoved and before he called I’m like ugh he probably gonna show AQ. I don’t know that im good enough to fold if I check the river and he shoves which happens all the time at these stakes. I think a lot of the time at these stakes villains take checking as weakness rather than strategic pot control and more often than not they are betting the river when checked to… maybe they wouldn’t shove but good reminder to think about what I’m expecting them to call with vs letting them take a shot at bluffing.

 

[Frogzilla]

First of all, don’t reveal the entire hand up front (especially not villain’s hand). If you want a good analysis, post it street by street before any action has happened. Include reads and other useful info.

Disagree

Looking for a bit of guidance on this online hand I played recently in $0.02/$0.05 ($0.02 ante). I have AKo and the villain shows AQs at showdown. Is this just a cooler or could/should I have lost less by checking one of the streets or changing bet sizing? Not much info on the villain but my read was that they missed their flush draw. I think I even put them on a paired ace given they called such large bet sizes.

Any questions, advice or insight would be appreciated. Thanks!

Reading as missed flush draw is an opportunity for improvement. If you know they have a missed flush draw, river is a check call. Betting doesn’t make sense. You also block club draw with your Kc. It’s ok if you have limited info and forced to assume a wide and varied range, sometimes they have a wide and varied range.

My intuition is that you played it more or less fine at least if they have similar population tendencies to low stakes live and if you have been active/bluffy enough to get action from Ax and Jx and TT. Some people never bluff and if they read you as that, then your river jam isn’t great.

 

[maxim_666666]

In my opinion, it was a normal hand, where no one had the opportunity to fold.

 

[Eriks]

Disagree

Why on earth would it be better with a full reveal upfront?

 

[MrRossKeys]

If villain is on the button, I think an aggressive flop and turn bet is rational. If they've called both bets and the river isn't the flush card I probably check in 95% of situations due to the following:

• If they missed their flush they likely won't call any river bet from me
• If they missed their flush they may check back to a check
• If they missed their flush they may try to steal the pot and bluff, to which I would most likely call
• If they flopped a set of 44's or JJ's I don't want to keep putting money into their pot (though I believe I would have heard from them with a raise either flop or turn as they are wary of the flush themselves).
• If they somehow made it to the turn and turn a set of 33's, they may check the turn and hope I bet the river
• There's also the possibility that they had pocket QQ's and decided preflop that they were calling any bet to the river, even after seeing the Ace on the flop. Maybe table image or the lower table stakes made it easier for them to just hold the QQ's all the way and hit a set on the river.

In live poker I'm almost always checking the river and cry-calling to beat the bluff. In online poker I'm almost always check-folding the river depending on the stakes (I'm calling more in lower stakes).

Overall it's just unlucky, but you'll want to prepare yourself for similar situations in the future.

 

[jeffb1517]

It isn't even that much of a cooler. On the flop you are 56% vs their 42%. They flopped top pair, good kicker and a flush draw. They had 11 outs two times. And they are a passive player i.e. trappish. You probably should have lost more if he raises the river potentially lots more.

Preflop they don't raise, which is odd. Maybe they like playing AQs like it was A7s. You overbet the pot a ton of hands drop out which is what AKo wants. Villian justs calls. At this point they could have any drawish hand.

Flop is great for them and good for you. Button BTW doesn't raise. They can call almost any reraise. You having a set of As or Js is possible but other than that, worst case is a hand like your's. Most likely that means they think they are trapping. Though in this case given no raise on the turn or river I think just really passive. They have (from their perspective best hand and best draw). They aren't totally dead even if you showed them a set As or Js and that's far less likely than any number of hands worse than yours. You probably aren't getting rid of them after the flop unless you go all in, which you shouldn't.

You have to be a little careful because they could have a set of 4s or AJ. But mostly you are likely ahead so you fire. 3/4s pot is fine. Call tells you they have something. Maybe from experience you know if it could be JT, QJ...

Turn no club, no new threats other than A3c. Turn you bet moderate again. Potentially more here, like say $3, overbet the pot and make the pure flush draw drop. Again they have a flush draw and a pair, and a good pair at that so they at least call. So on the actual hand a more protective line still just costs you money.

The river bet I don't love. You can call a bluff. If he raises to say $15 after you bet $6 now what? If you want to bet for value to get a weak hand to call why go so big? Remember on the flop and turn you wanted weak hands to fold now you want the call or the bluff. Here I'd do $2 or check.

I have no idea why BTN doesn't raise the river. If he is trapping you got trapped. Consider it a blessing.


In short you lost the minumum because you opponent didn't play well and it wasn't a cooler. He had

* an almost equally good hand on the flop
* a hand that is much easier to play since he had draws to the nuts
* position on you
* a better read of the situation due to you playing honestly and him not playing honestly.

 

[cfletch]

Depends on your read of the person, and your playing tendencies, on how this would play, but yeah, the shove at the end is aggressive considering they're calling down those other big bets. You played very aggressively OOP, so you got little info from them. That's a dream for a set miner. On the river if they're a whale and you know that it's a cooler. If it's a nit you really fucked up. But without reads the most critical question at at every decision is "what hands/how many hands call the size bet that you still beat?" You've got TPTK which is ok, but other than the flush there were quite a few flops and draws that get over you.... On the turn I'd either downsize to control pot or upsize to fold out stronger hands/draws. And when you've got cards on the board that work against you it's time to check or put a blocker bet on the river and assess from there. I'm learning all-ins with TPTK are RARELY going to pay YOU someone's stack at lower stakes unless the SPR is super low by the river, so your river bet was more polarizing. You'd get more value/lose less with a check or smaller river bet. FWIW I'm also a microstakes player, new to winning there over the last couple months. I understand all to well that feeling of "I started with a great hand, I can win if I don't show weakness," but that feeling is what ships off stacks to happy villains, and you have to deal with the fact that you can't win every hand by either being the strongest or puffing your chest to look the strongest. The traps are getting married to the hand you started strong with, not getting any read on their hand, and not assessing all the possibilities as it unfolds. Adapt adapt adapt. Cheers I hope that helps.

 

[JustinInMN]

@Kentucky as soon as I shoved and before he called I’m like ugh he probably gonna show AQ. I don’t know that im good enough to fold if I check the river and he shoves which happens all the time at these stakes.

Yeah this is the reason I don't love the open shove on the river. This is what I call "the bad sort." You have made a bet that "sorts" your opponents range almost perfectly such that all hands that beat you (two-pair-plus) will call and and all hands that you can beat (AT, lesser Ax) can possibly find a fold. The bet has literally no upside. If you know enough about your opponents that they can call sizing this high with the hands I would target, then the open-shove is more defensible, but the fact you felt the dread when you saw the call tells me that's not at all your read on this villain.

Yes, I would be value betting this river, but I am making a size that would target villain AT-A8 or KQ for a call. And I would expect villain to have more of these holdings and to call often enough to make up for the times villain will have us beat (and even stack us if it happens) when we are beat in this spot.

I think a lot of the time at these stakes villains take checking as weakness rather than strategic pot control and more often than not they are betting the river when checked to… maybe they wouldn’t shove but good reminder to think about what I’m expecting them to call with vs letting them take a shot at bluffing.

So I think there's a flaw in this thinking. If you're opponent bluffs too much, you want to check and have it read as weakness, and AK is a very good bluff-catching hand in this spot.

Overall, this is just a tough river and it's okay to get stacked here one way or another. I just think the rationale behind the open-shove on the river was flawed as presented. I think my play on the river is to go for $2 of value and if I get shoved on, decide if villain has enough bluffs to call. But what's important about this sizing is to collect money when we are ahead and not risk letting villain lay down medium strength.