Was my move slick, standard or fishy? (1 Viewer)

[NeutronHim]

When he squeezed preflop I at first assumed he was doing so fairly wide, heavy on Ax hands, some other Broadway combos, but not exclusively suited, and not only pocket pairs. Postflop I thought his continuation range tightened, but still had very little 8x in it. So yes, a favorable flop for me, and even more favorable turn.

When he led for $120 on the turn, into a pot of $335–leaving himself with less than a pot sized bet behind—I didn’t think a call or min raise made much sense.

A call would have made the pot $575, and he’d have about $405 behind.

There aren’t many cards he would think are safe after I flat the turn, not even a K. So I’d expect him to mostly check, or maybe sometimes turn his overpair into a bluff. If he bluffs small, he should know I’m going to call or raise all on almost every time given the effective stack. If he shoves, he is value owning himself a lot of the time. So I don’t think I’m making a lot by either betting $200 or shoving when he checks—gonna fold same as the turn.

There are, by contrast, a fair number of scare cards for my specific hand on the river, making better two pairs, better straights, sets, etc. If he leads with a shove I may fold the worst hand.

So I guess I intuited (can’t say that I really consciously worked it out) that while my turn shove might cost me a small amount of EV from folds, and very very occasionally would run into 8x, the times he calls the $405 with worse would make me more profit overall in the long run. Say, maybe 25% of the time is enough? He seemed to be 51-49% fold/call.

But per my OP, I haven’t played enough with these guys yet to say for sure. I did think he was one of the more thinkinh players in the game, and still do. And I think this play may help me against him in future sessions… Time may tell, or not.

I have read somewhere that going for thin value is the best way to get yourself acquainted with players -- figure out what they tank call, what they snap off. In that sense, I like the play.

Yeah there are a ton of scary river cards that "kill your action" when you have specifically two pair. But idk, I'm a fiend for taking my river in position. Feels like there is not a single card in the deck that improves his range (is he really happy riverring two pair on 4-straight? What about rivering a set of kings?) Whereas almost every river improves you. Overcard => you can have two pair. I just can't think of a single river card where our range doesn't put his in a terrible spot, except maybe an 8. The overwhelming majority of the time, he checks river. Then he caps himself entirely and allows you to just bet any two pair + bluffs for like half pot and put him in a miserable spot.

It's kind of like I want us both to be in this ridiculous river spot because he's gonna make bigger mistakes than I am. If he's really tank folding KK there, then it becomes a lot more reasonable to just exploitatively go for thin value. If he tank folds bottom two or bottom set, then calling turn makes more sense.

The stack depth does make it kind of awkward, I agree. If your shoving range is entirely marginal hands, then it's pretty easy to call with a set. If its marginal hands and straights, then you start getting capped when you call instead of raise. If he's not the type to bluff to exploit that, then it's no biggie.

 

[JustinInMN]

Feels like there is not a single card in the deck that improves his range (is he really happy riverring two pair on 4-straight? What about rivering a set of kings?)

I am going to disagree with this here, it's not insignificant if villain's range is skewed toward overpairs that there are board pairs that beat hero. It's true villain probably won't be comfortable to lead the river when he "improves" for fear of trips and straights, but hero is going to lose the pot often when outdrawn unless he decides to turn the counterfit two pair into a bluff.

So I do prefer hero's play in this spot.

But that said I do have respect for your view here

But idk, I'm a fiend for taking my river in position.

There is a lot to be said for this. But I think the turn was the best spot to earn more chips or protect what had already become a fairly sizable pot, in this case.

 

[NeutronHim]

I am going to disagree with this here, it's not insignificant if villain's range is skewed toward overpairs that there are board pairs that beat hero. It's true villain probably won't be comfortable to lead the river when he "improves" for fear of trips and straights, but hero is going to lose the pot often when outdrawn unless he decides to turn the counterfit two pair into a bluff.

So I do prefer hero's play in this spot.

But that said I do have respect for your view here



There is a lot to be said for this. But I think the turn was the best spot to earn more chips or protect what had already become a fairly sizable pot, in this case.

Yeah, I do intend to turn 100% of counterfeit two pairs (blocking boats, 0 showdown) into a bluff in this spot. If you are going check check on the river when the board pairs and its not your card, you should ship turn fs.