The Return of Av8tion - Poker as an Income Stream

Anthony Martino

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Allin was on the turn and it wasn't until after the Q hit on the river that the set of 6s showed... there's no reason to not see the river card... just a total mental block on his part... in the end he patted me on the shoulder and said "it's alright" probably interpreting the look on my face as guilt for not having said anything to stop him from mucking the winner...

You did the right thing. Only speak up if a tabled winner is being missed
 

Av8tion

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I'm flipping through the Houston poker rooms and see that 52 social is now Johnny Chan's 88... did they change the chips yet or is it still the old 52 social ones?

Follow up question.. if they have the new chips, does anyone have any of the old $1 chips they'd like to sell me for my chip wall?
 

raynmanas

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Allin was on the turn and it wasn't until after the Q hit on the river that the set of 6s showed... there's no reason to not see the river card... just a total mental block on his part... in the end he patted me on the shoulder and said "it's alright" probably interpreting the look on my face as guilt for not having said anything to stop him from mucking the winner...

yeah i meant "checked out" mentally. and you confirmed. rough muck.
 

MrCatPants

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I'm flipping through the Houston poker rooms and see that 52 social is now Johnny Chan's 88... did they change the chips yet or is it still the old 52 social ones?

Follow up question.. if they have the new chips, does anyone have any of the old $1 chips they'd like to sell me for my chip wall?
They haven't changed chips or felt yet.
 

MrCatPants

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Maybe I'll offer them 20 grand for their old chips and put up the sale thread here :)
Losing proposition

1625450836433.png
 

DrStrange

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A thought exercise:

We are playing big bet poker - no limit hold'em, with a 100bb to 200bb buy in.

Let's assume for the moment Hero plays $1/$3 for three hours and wins $150 per session < $50 per hour > over "a long" period of time. That works out to be 17 big blinds per hour. Hero's standard deviation is 20 big blinds ( or $600 ) / hour. ( for later reference hero gets in 100 hands per session or 33 per hour )

After a hundred sessions (10,000 hands) Hero expects to have won 100 x $150 = $15,000 with a standard deviation of Sqr(100) x $600 = $6,000

A 95% confidence interval is two standard deviations or $12,000. So Hero should win between $3,000 and $27,000 95 percent of the time over those 10,000 hands.

For a thousand session sample, Hero expects to win an average of $150,000 plus or minus $38,000 In other terms Hero should win between $112,000 and $188,000 95 percent of the time when playing 100,000 hands.

What does this mean in practical terms?

After 10,000 hands, the best Hero can safely determine is Big winner vs sort of break even vs Big loser.

After 100,000 hands, Hero's skill level is pretty obvious. There isn't one chance in a hundred that a solid winning player is coming close to breakeven or less. Same thing with a losing player somehow not losing.

The only dicey question(s) after 100,000 hands come when Hero is close to break even - say winning less than five big blinds per hour / $15 per hour or $45 per session. There it becomes hand to distinguish the difference between weak skill levels and good vs bad luck.

Tales of woe regarding 100,000+ hands worth of "run bad" are typically originating with limit poker games. The win rates in limit games are almost always on the order of +1 to +2 bb per hour. In that sort of game, bad luck will crush skill for a long long time. But not so much in big bet poker.
 

Av8tion

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I'm thinking about checking out club 52/88/whatever it's called right now tomorrow morning and then going to the hangar in the afternoon... so possible big poker action tomorrow.
 

Av8tion

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FYI the new chips are in play... so my previous request for 2 of the old dollar chips are still in place
 

Av8tion

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Update #8

Took a morning trip over to Johnny Chan's 88 club on the west end. Nice, large room with a bunch of tables and average-skill players. It seems like the hardcore donators and donks are mostly at the hangar. This room and Spades both had your typical Vegas 2/5 players. Easily beatable tables, but actual strategy is required as opposed to the hangar which is a glorified ATM. I played for an hour and a half during their no-rake early bird special. No real major/interesting hands to speak of... just a basic grind until the free play was over.

This is part 1 of 2 for the day, as I'll be heading over to the Hangar at 6:30 once the first 1-3 game starts up

Starting Bankroll: $13,069

Location: Johnny Chan's 88 Social Club, Houston, TX

Stakes: 1/3 NLHE

Time: 1.5 Hours

Buyins: $520

Cashouts: $860

Result: $340

Ending Bankroll: $13,409

5259d1609c50b9c4026abbdc84d04902[1].jpg
 

Av8tion

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Update #9

Seatbelts and airbags everyone... all three bullets went flying tonight....

Ran incredibly bad for most of this 4-hour session...

AK snaps off QT allin preflop and loses to a Q.

I run aces up into a flopped set for a $1300ish pot...

All $1500 comes onto the table...

At the end of the night I'm finally on the good end of a cooler when I river a disguised straight against a flop set that I had good odds to call down with... about a $1,600 pot and we're out of stuckville (although I didn't know it yet... I thought I was in for $2,100 but miscounted the number of times I rebought...)

KK holds up allin preflop for once, and we cash out a few hands later to end the crazy night.

One thing I hated about tonight was letting my emotions start to get the better of me about halfway through getting constantly screwed over by the deck... Thankfully, I was able to re-compose myself and get a good couple folds in to get me back into the rhythm. It's something that's gonna keep being a problem and that I'm gonna have to keep working to fix.... because going on tilt and loosening my range could be a massive hole in my game if I allow it.

Tomorrow's Omaha night at the Hangar, so it's either Spades or Johnny's or somewhere else tomorrow... stay tuned for update #10 and let's see how long we can keep the win streak up!

Starting Bankroll: $13,409

Location: The Hangar, Humble, TX

Stakes: 1/3 NLHE

Time: 4 Hours

Buyins: $1,500

Cashouts: $1,865

Result: $365

Ending Bankroll: $13,774

20210705_222528.jpg
 

Anthony Martino

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Believe me, I tried really hard to lose tonight...

Having done this for a couple years on the PLO side of things, generally 65% of sessions are winners and 35% are losers

As far as tilt goes, I haven't met anyone yet that is immune to it. You can only take getting slapped around for so long before it affects you

Being aware enough to recognize it and take a breather is key
 

MrCatPants

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Having done this for a couple years on the PLO side of things, generally 65% of sessions are winners and 35% are losers

As far as tilt goes, I haven't met anyone yet that is immune to it. You can only take getting slapped around for so long before it affects you

Being aware enough to recognize it and take a breather is key
Some players are definitely more prone to it, too. The type that get it in 60/40 and feel they got sucked out on when they lose, start (internally) ranting and raving. Little different than someone spiking a one or two outer.

Like, yes you were correct to get it in. But you also have to look at a large sample size on those types of odds.
 

Av8tion

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That looks like a pretty fat stack to your right if those are stacks of hundreds they have.
Greens, not blacks... I left shorty after that pic... the only people left with stacks were regs... so I decided to exercise good game selection and take the rest of the night off...
 

Av8tion

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Update #10

Hit-n-Run Alert!

It was originally my intention to spend the day down at Chan's and grind out some 1-3NL. Instead, after an hour of folding most hands and winning a couple without showdown this happens...

folds to me on the button and I raise to 12 with 75o. BB calls :(
Flop comes J-4-6 rainbow. BB checks, I c-bet to 20, BB raises to 100, I call. If an A or K comes on the turn I can possibly get him off his hand, and if a 3 or 8 hits I'm getting an all-expense-paid trip to valuetown.
Turn comes 8d for two diamonds on board. BB bets a big tower of red chips... probably 1/3 or so of his stack... I raise all-in and he calls after a second or so of looking confused. I announce "straight" and he gets even more confused... flip over the 75o and the table starts snickering. River's meaningless and we take all his money. He leaves the table, probably wondering what the hell just happened...

I play for another half hour or so until my time runs out then decide to leave since the table is shorthanded with only the regs having any substantial stacks. I'll take the afternoon off and head over to a chess tournament that is being hosted tonight...

Starting Bankroll: $13,774

Location: Johnny Chan's 88 Social, Houston, TX

Stakes: 1/3 NLHE

Time: 1.5 Hours

Buyins: $520

Cashouts: $1,303

Result: $783

Ending Bankroll: $14,557
 

Av8tion

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Update #11

The upswing comes to an end in spectacular fashion.

My first (and last) visit to TCH in Spring resulted in me getting sucked out on in 4 major hands by people calling massive preflop raises with the likes of Q5o, 53o, 75o, etc. On top of that, they have this idiotic thing where you have to play a hand of Omaha on every orbit... on top of the stupid Texas-wide bullshit of doing an omaha bomb pot every dealer change.... needless to say, I was furious with my experience there and will never be returning.... lost most of the $1500 I brought to the game after adding on twice. I decided to pack up before I killed someone, eat some pizza... reload another couple bullets from the bankroll box... and head over to The Hangar.

Did I ever mention that I love the Hangar? One nut flush and a turned straight later, I leave in about an hour of play up over $600 to ease the suffering of the previous beating... I would've played for longer but my flight for work leaves at 6am tomorrow.. so that's all for poker until I hit the Cincinnati Hard Rock in a few days. I'm bringing 2.5k with me for my 2-week pattern... I'm hoping to get at least 6-7 sessions in between having to fly.

Honestly, it may be a really good thing to kinda "break the reverse curse" before heading out to work. I no longer have the "when's the winning streak gonna end" cloud hanging over my head. I can just get back into the swing of things and take each session as it comes without worrying about "extending the streak".

Starting Bankroll: $14,557

Location: TCH Spring TX and Hangar Humble TX

Stakes: 1/3 NLHE

Time: 2.5 Hours

Buyins: $2,000

Cashouts: $1,297

Result: $703

Ending Bankroll: $13,854

20210707_170239.jpg
 

Av8tion

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Before anybody asks.... yes... their chips are badly-relabeled claysmith bluff canyons...
 

Marc Hedrick

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It’s honestly disgusting. You would expect TCH to have better chips with their reputation.
Maybe TCH can't order through Paulson? I don't know the legalities of poker rooms in Texas, but I believe they're somewhere in the grey area. Might be an opportunity for CPC?
 

DrBill

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Maybe TCH can't order through Paulson? I don't know the legalities of poker rooms in Texas, but I believe they're somewhere in the grey area. Might be an opportunity for CPC?
Yea, I believe they launched in 2017 or 18 and probably couldn’t at that point, might still not be able to. But, even still, their new rooms are heading in a much better direction with custom ceramics. But yes, CPC would’ve been a much better call! Doubt they really cared that much at first (obviously) but now they are realizing it matters.
 

toothpic

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I think TCH in Dallas uses ceramic chips which is what more and more poker houses in Texas use. The Lodge in Austin also uses ceramic chips. I hate them lol
 

Coyote

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A Missionary Service of Texas Chippers should be established to approach TX cardrooms and explain the evils of plastic and ceramic crap.
Jesus said CPC Clay could save you.:):)
 
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