Sports Betting with Rainman (1 Viewer)

[gopherblue]

If only there was a tool for tracking this.

 

[mooremo]

So, for my understanding and using the games on the 27th as an example, he won;

Miami +165
Philly +182
Houston +122
for a total of $469

He lost 3 games, which only cost him $100 a piece since he took the underdogs, so his profit was $169 for the 27th?

Is this right?

 

[RainmanTrail]

So, for my understanding and using the games on the 27th as an example, he won;

Miami +165
Philly +182
Houston +122
for a total of $469

He lost 3 games, which only cost him $100 a piece since he took the underdogs, so his profit was $169 for the 27th?

Is this right?

No, I won $200 in each of those games, and lost $100, $121, & $125 for a total profit of $254.

However, if I had bet $100 on each game, then your math would be correct. But I've been betting to win $200 each game, which is different from betting $200 each game.

 

[RainmanTrail]

You know what would make this more exciting for some of us to follow? Posting results. Not just the game results, but the money results.

I'm not interested in the baseball, but curious about the performance of your model.

I'm not interested enough to do the math myself though.

Sorry, I've been meaning to do this, but I've been swamped with midterm exams. Can barely keep up posting games. I'll update the thread next week with some results. So far, I'm only up a few hundred bucks. But the model is up about $700 (I missed two games which the model both won).

 

[RainmanTrail]

Today's games so far...

Oakland +117
Atlanta +177

Adding in Philadelphia +135

 

[RainmanTrail]

OK, I'm posting my results so far for those who have asked. The model is doing slightly better as it would have bet two more games (both of which it would have won, but I wasn't able to place those bets for one reason or another, so I'm not counting them in these results).

To see my full game log, click here.

The graph below is for all games posted in this thread to date (except for the scratched out Yankees game from April 25th, which we would have won). If you were lucky enough to bet that Yankees game when I posted it, then you'd have one more win than me as I didn't get it in time.

I'm mostly just posting in this thread to have a public record of my bets posted somewhere BEFORE the games actually start.

 

[RainmanTrail]

April 29th games

San Diego +165
Colorado +125

 

[RainmanTrail]

April 29th games

San Diego +165
Colorado +125

April 29 Results: 2-0
(Now the wife wants a pair of Ray-Bans... Make that 2-1)

Record Winning Percentage Dollars Won
24 - 27 47.06% $929.08
Average Amount Earned Per Bet $18.22
Average Amount Bet Per Bet $150.61
Average Return on Investment 12%
Average Odds Per Bet 139
Average Breakeven Winning Percentage 42%

 

[RainmanTrail]

April 30th games so far

Minnesota +109
Seattle -104

Adding in a lot of games for today... I'm pretty sure this is the most games I've ever bet in one day before.
Colorado +151
Cincinnati +180
LA Angels +107
San Diego +160
San Francisco +165
Washington +114
Milwaukee +106

 

[RainmanTrail]

April 30th games so far

Minnesota +109
Seattle -104

Adding in a lot of games for today... I'm pretty sure this is the most games I've ever bet in one day before.
Colorado +151
Cincinnati +180
LA Angels +107
San Diego +160
San Francisco +165
Washington +114
Milwaukee +106

Went 4-5 today for a profit of $8.59

Season to date:

Record Winning Percentage Dollars Won
28 - 32 46.67% $937.67
Average Amount Earned Per Bet $15.63
Average Amount Bet Per Bet $151.89
Average Return on Investment 10%
Average Odds Per Bet 138
Average Breakeven Winning Percentage 42%

 

[RainmanTrail]

Somehow, I've won every day for the past 7 days. I think some regression is around the corner Although, I did start the season off with a slump, so there's that...

 

[RainmanTrail]

OK, April is over. Time for some month end results. The first plot shows where I'm at overall, which includes my games from last year's MLB and NHL seasons. It's the same plot as what's in the OP, just updated with the bets from this thread to date.

This second plot, which I created in R, shows the same data but it's plotted with the X-axis representing each individual bet rather than it using dates as a timeline axis. This plot gives you a better sense of the kind of variance we might expect and the win rate. The dotted red line is just a regression line I fitted from the data.

 

[RainmanTrail]

May 1st games are

Baltimore +115
NY Yankees +145
LA Angels +115
Tampa Bay +107

 

[RainmanTrail]

May 1st games are

Baltimore +115
NY Yankees +145
LA Angels +115
Tampa Bay +107

Was supposed to add in Cincinnati too, but couldn't get it the bet in lol. Doh!

 

[Chicken Rob]

Btw - thanks for posting the money results. This is way more fun to follow now.

 

[RainmanTrail]

May 1st games are

Baltimore +115
NY Yankees +145
LA Angels +115
Tampa Bay +107

Went 1-3 today, for a loss of $298.76. I should have gone 2-3, but I didn't get the Cincinnati bet in time. Doh! So, the model is now 3-0 when I don't get a bet in. I run bad, what can I say.

 

[RainmanTrail]

OK, today I just see one game so far.

Minnesota +165

Update: Adding in one more...

Atlanta +180

 

[RainmanTrail]

I predict I'm going to lose a lot of money on the Braves this season lol

 

[RainmanTrail]

Minnesota +165
Atlanta +181 (previous post said this was +180, but it was actually +181)

We went 1-1 today for a profit of $89.50


Record Winning Percentage Dollars Won
30 - 36 45.45% $728.40
Average Amount Earned Per Bet $11.04
Average Amount Bet Per Bet $151.78
Average Return on Investment 7%
Average Odds Per Bet 138
Average Breakeven Winning Percentage 42%

 

[RainmanTrail]

May 3rd games

NY Yankees +110
Minnesota +145

Update
__________
Adding in
Milwaukee +112
Atlanta +190
Philadelphia +135

 

[RainmanTrail]

May 3rd games

NY Yankees +110
Minnesota +145
Milwaukee +112
Atlanta +190
Philadelphia +135

We went 3-2 today for a profit of $280.25, and just broke 1k for the season (y) :thumbsup:

Record Winning Percentage Dollars Won
33 - 38 46.48% $1,008.65
Average Amount Earned Per Bet $14.21
Average Amount Bet Per Bet $151.68
Average Return on Investment 9%
Average Odds Per Bet 138
Average Breakeven Winning Percentage 42%

 

[RainmanTrail]

OK, gonna bet a few more games tomorrow, but I'm jumping on the early line for the A's game for tomorrow (May 4). I'll post the others when I place my bets. I'll probably be betting on Milwaukee but that line is moving fast, and in my favor, so I'm going to wait to let them push the line more before I take it.

May 4 bets:
Oakland +110

 

[RainmanTrail]

OK, gonna bet a few more games tomorrow, but I'm jumping on the early line for the A's game for tomorrow (May 4). I'll post the others when I place my bets. I'll probably be betting on Milwaukee but that line is moving fast, and in my favor, so I'm going to wait to let them push the line more before I take it.

May 4 bets:
Oakland +110

Also taking
Atlanta
Milwaukee
Kansas City
NY Yankees

WIll post lines later, got a meeting to run to

 

[RainmanTrail]

OK, the lines I got for today's games are:

Oakland +110
Atlanta +175
Milwaukee +130
Kansas City +135
NY Yankees +121

This could be a bad day...

Yup, sure was. We went 1-4 today for a loss of $398.11. We had the lead on two of them, but blew it in the 8th... doh! Guess that's what happens when you bet on shitty teams. Onward and upward...

 

[RainmanTrail]

No games yet for May 5th. I have two games on my radar, San Diego and Philadelphia, but so far, both are a no go.

 

[RainmanTrail]

It's official. No games today

 

[RainmanTrail]

No games yet for May 5th. I have two games on my radar, San Diego and Philadelphia, but so far, both are a no go.

It's official. No games today

Sometimes NOT betting is the big win haha. Would have lost them both. Glad I held off on the early lines.

 

[RainmanTrail]

OK, I have one early line for the May 6 games. Will likely add a couple games though.

Minnesota +120

 

[stocky]

Just curious and feel free to ignore. But just wondering how big of a bankroll you started out with?

 

[RainmanTrail]

Just curious and feel free to ignore. But just wondering how big of a bankroll you started out with?

I started out by discovering that I had a couple hundred dollars still on a shitty poker site not to be named. There was about $200-220 on there. I started out by betting $30 per game. Once I had enough data to validate my results as being statistically significant, I began to ramp up the stakes as my bankroll grew. The bets shown here assume you bet to win $200 on each game, which is about an average of $150 or so per game.