RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
Well gang, it's about that time of year again. Baseball season is in full swing, and I'll be placing quite a few bets between now and the All-Star break. I've been betting on MLB for two seasons now, and NHL for one season. I've been a consistent winner in all 3 of these seasons, over a span of 250+ games.
As some of you know, I'm a data scientist/statistician that builds predictive models for a living, which are very similar to the models that bookmakers in Las Vegas use to make the betting lines. The models I built for MLB games are entropy maximization based models which leverage webscraped social media data and several other factors to identify profitable betting lines. The model was trained on a dataset that I put together of thousands of games from over 10 years worth of MLB seasons. I ran my model on 5 season's worth of MLB data that it hadn't seen before, and it won in all 5 seasons. Then, 2 years ago, I started betting with my predictive model, and won a few grand the first season, and about $2500 the next season (while averaging about $150 bets per game). I then built a very similar model for NHL games, and it won with a very similar ROI.
I keep a log of my bets on a website that tracks my wins and losses, so you can see my results (which I started logging last year, so unfortunately I don't have the games from my first MLB season in there). But you can clearly see the two seasons worth of data in the graph below from it. The first section from May to July was for MLB, then I stopped betting until NHL season in Nov-Mar. I will be betting from now until the All-Star break as I haven't yet built a model for the MLB after the break (too many things change which break my predictive model after the All-Star break - trade deadline, rookie call-ups, dog days of summer, teams out of contention changing strategies, etc).
I will try to post all my bets before the games start, but I often bet minutes before the games start, and will likely forget to post sometimes. If you'd like to follow along, or if you just feel like gambling it up with me, like the complete degenerate you are, I'll be posting my bets in this thread.
This is gambling - bet at your own risk and no bitching if/when we lose. However, if I win you some money, I expect to be rewarded in chips!
This does NOT mean that my bets are guaranteed to win you money of course...
My betting log: http://www.sharpbettracker.com/bets/view?share=CLDRQBTD
As some of you know, I'm a data scientist/statistician that builds predictive models for a living, which are very similar to the models that bookmakers in Las Vegas use to make the betting lines. The models I built for MLB games are entropy maximization based models which leverage webscraped social media data and several other factors to identify profitable betting lines. The model was trained on a dataset that I put together of thousands of games from over 10 years worth of MLB seasons. I ran my model on 5 season's worth of MLB data that it hadn't seen before, and it won in all 5 seasons. Then, 2 years ago, I started betting with my predictive model, and won a few grand the first season, and about $2500 the next season (while averaging about $150 bets per game). I then built a very similar model for NHL games, and it won with a very similar ROI.
I keep a log of my bets on a website that tracks my wins and losses, so you can see my results (which I started logging last year, so unfortunately I don't have the games from my first MLB season in there). But you can clearly see the two seasons worth of data in the graph below from it. The first section from May to July was for MLB, then I stopped betting until NHL season in Nov-Mar. I will be betting from now until the All-Star break as I haven't yet built a model for the MLB after the break (too many things change which break my predictive model after the All-Star break - trade deadline, rookie call-ups, dog days of summer, teams out of contention changing strategies, etc).
I will try to post all my bets before the games start, but I often bet minutes before the games start, and will likely forget to post sometimes. If you'd like to follow along, or if you just feel like gambling it up with me, like the complete degenerate you are, I'll be posting my bets in this thread.
This is gambling - bet at your own risk and no bitching if/when we lose. However, if I win you some money, I expect to be rewarded in chips!
This does NOT mean that my bets are guaranteed to win you money of course...
My betting log: http://www.sharpbettracker.com/bets/view?share=CLDRQBTD
