Setmining on the Money Bubble in an MTT (1 Viewer)

[Moxie Mike]

This should be a short discussion, since there's only one decision point.

Scenario: Live MTT Deepstack NLHE. 50k starting stack, late reg/rebuys for 8, 30 minute levels. Levels are 20 mins afterward.

Level 9: blinds are 2000/3000 no ante. 1.25mm total chips in play. Rebuy period has ended.

25 total entries including rebuys. Tournament pays 5. 7 players remain.

Relevant stacks/reads:

UTG+1: ~100BBs. Average player in terms of ability but his excessive aggression is an exploitable weakness. Usually finishes near the bottom in league points. Has ran hot all tournament and has earned several bounties. Sits at the table and makes a lot of small talk; has a happy demeanor in general and participates for social reasons as much as anything else. At 31 y.o. he is by far one of the youngest in the group.
MP: ~68BBs. One of the consistently best performers in the league - regularly finishes in the top 3 in points (this is not a league event). Possesses and properly applies advanced tournament concepts on a regular basis.
CO: 5 BBs. Folds in this hand but his stack is relevant for ICM considerations.
Button (HERO): 36BBs. Table image is super solid, doesn't usually get out of line. Has 6 figures in Hendon Mob cashes that league opponents are well aware of.
BB: ~35BBs. Solid yet unspectacular player. Not particularly imaginative. Takes a lot of flops when priced in.

UTG+1 Opens to 5BB (not standard for the table).
MP checks his hole cards and then pauses as if he is considering his options. He looks at UTG+1 suspiciously, whose happy demeanor sort of faded into a stoic blank stare. MP calls the 5BB.
HERO looks down at and calls.
BB calls, closing the action.

Pot: 20.66BB.

Flop comes .

UTG+1 bets 16.66 BBs with little hesitation.
MP thinks for a moment, then raises to 41.66 BBs.
Action is on HERO.

Thoughts? Is this anything other than a snap call?

Thoughts in general about setmining at this stage of the tournament?

 

[DrStrange]

Hero's stack is way too small to be set mining. And the tournament considerations likely makes this even worse.

I assume Hero planned a call / fold line vs a three-bet?

As played, I think Hero has to call. A huge number of one pair hands are in the range plus plenty of flush draws. Not just a call, I think a fist pump call - except this is a posted hand so the dreaded set over set has to be on the minds of the contributors. Or maybe the flush came in and held up.

Still, this is as good as it gets for Hero. Go get 'em tiger -=- DrStrange

 

[Marc Hedrick]

Absolutely have to call as played, but fold pre IMO with that stack depth and stage in tourney.

 

[HaRDHouSeiNC]

5BB I’d call hoping to see a flop
Leaves you 30BB
You can shove literally any upcoming hands to get your chips back if you have to fold pre people are gonna be super tight

You flopped a set
That’s why you called pre right?
Three way possible Tripple up

I couldn’t call fast enough
What are we afraid of?
9-10 of spades is about the worst you can be up against
If they have 8-8 god bless them

 

[HaRDHouSeiNC]

Absolutely have to call as played, but fold pre IMO with that stack depth and stage in tourney.

For 5BB I’m in every time if the SB and BB are super tight not raising every hand to steal pre
If they are just constantly calling I’m in

 

[Marc Hedrick]

For 5BB I’m in every time if the SB and BB are super tight not raising every hand to steal pre
If they are just constantly calling I’m in

Agreed, if you're very confident the blinds will almost never raise. That shouldn't normally be assumed though. Great squeeze spot.

 

[chkyrslf]

Interesting one. I think I would've folded pre-flop noting ICM and trying to get in the money and hoping one of the other two knock the other out.

As played though, snap call, get it in.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

Calling pre is a chip ev loser even without icm pressure. You’re paying 1/7th of your stack to hit (which happens 1 in 9 times) and you don’t always double (or win) when you hit. Sometimes your 4s hold and no one takes a stab but that probably happens less often than one of the blinds squeezing pre. It’s all a mess.

You should include the pay structure though - it’s pretty important.

 

[Legend5555]

Standard fold pre.

As played, anyways getting it in on flop.

 

[upNdown]

Folding pre.
I’m am very wary of set mining in tournaments. I’ve brought the topic up several times, both here and with live people, and I generally get a reaction like I have cabbages for brains.
Sure, early on when stacks are deep, go for it. But the reality is that most people spend most of their time in tournaments somewhere in the neighborhood of 40bb or less, right? I just think set mining with those stacks is bad poker.

As played, it’s actually close for me. Without more information, I guess I’m calling. But give me an excuse to fold this coin flip. I mean, it’s better than a coin flip of course, but bottom set against two opponents who both have me covered, on the money bubble - I don’t love it.
If fifth place is decent money, if it’s not a top heavy payout structure, if I feel like I have a final table skill edge over these guys - give me a reason.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

There is no pay structure that isn’t a satellite paying 5 players the same amount where folding is close to an option.

If it was televised, it would make repeat appearances in compilation videos showcasing the worst folds ever seen.

 

[upNdown]

If it was televised, it would make repeat appearances in compilation videos showcasing the worst folds ever seen.

If I were worried about people laughing at me, I probably wouldn’t have shared my opinion that there could be reasons to fold there.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

Saying there may be reasons and folding are two different things.

You gave a series of hypothetical examples where it might make sense. I just don’t think there are any normal payout structures that meet that criteria aside from satellites.

If 5th paid half as much as first though, then sure. And then slap yourself across the face for flatting pre.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Folding pre.
I’m am very wary of set mining in tournaments. I’ve brought the topic up several times, both here and with live people, and I generally get a reaction like I have cabbages for brains.
Sure, early on when stacks are deep, go for it. But the reality is that most people spend most of their time in tournaments somewhere in the neighborhood of 40bb or less, right? I just think set mining with those stacks is bad poker.

In general I agree. But if there is ever a spot where setmining with this stack size would be appropriate, this would be it.

I mean - the pot is already bloated because of the irregular PFR sizing, and there are two opponents to pay you off if you hit. Stack damage is always a consideration but it's of little consequence given the other stacks.

As played, it’s actually close for me. Without more information, I guess I’m calling. But give me an excuse to fold this coin flip. I mean, it’s better than a coin flip of course, but bottom set against two opponents who both have me covered, on the money bubble - I don’t love it.
If fifth place is decent money, if it’s not a top heavy payout structure, if I feel like I have a final table skill edge over these guys - give me a reason.

What information would you need to find a fold here? You've played with all the people involved I think... I'll send you a DM with identifiers.

 

[Moxie Mike]

You should include the pay structure though - it’s pretty important.

Entry fee was $100 which included a green chip bounty. 5th place paid the bubble; first paid $750 (10x the entry fee).

 

[upNdown]

Entry fee was $100 which included a green chip bounty. 5th place paid the bubble; first paid $750 (10x the entry fee).

In general I agree. But if there is ever a spot where setmining with this stack size would be appropriate, this would be it.

I mean - the pot is already bloated because of the irregular PFR sizing, and there are two opponents to pay you off if you hit. Stack damage is always a consideration but it's of little consequence given the other stacks.


What information would you need to find a fold here? You've played with all the people involved I think... I'll send you a DM with identifiers.

It does help to see the faces. I do feel a little better here, knowing that MP is probably just trying to exploit UTG+1, and we just caught the right flop to exploit the exploiter.
I guess my bottom line is that I never would have been in this hand, so I don’t mind discussing the possibility of getting out of it. And if that’s a bit disingenuous, oh well.

And also, I just see things differently than many. But I’m a winning tournament player, so whether I’ve earned the right to go against conventional wisdom or not, I’m comfortable with it. And as far as I’m concerned, there is never a wrong time to discuss folding on the bubble, when you’re covered and you have a cashing stack. Feel free to disagree.

 

[Moxie Mike]

I guess we can button this one up:

HERO calls all in.
UTG+1 tanks, then eventually calls.

The turn was the .

UTG+1 checks. MP jams.

UTG+1 tanks again. Eventually, he says 'I know this is a terrible call', then flings the appropriate # of chips in.

MP turns over pocket 8s for middle set.
UTG turns over .

The river was a spade, giving UTG+1 the nuts. He dragged a ~175 BB pot and went on to win the tournament.

 

[grebe]

It's a fold pre and a jam on the flop.

I don't really think it's close.

 

[grebe]

Thoughts in general about setmining at this stage of the tournament?

You are too shallow at this open to get your money's worth to set mine with 44....it just isnt going to be good enough on it's own. You would need to at least double up EVERY time you flop a set to make this profitable.

 

[upNdown]

I guess we can button this one up:

HERO calls all in.
UTG+1 tanks, then eventually calls.

The turn was the .

UTG+1 checks. MP jams.

UTG+1 tanks again. Eventually, he says 'I know this is a terrible call', then flings the appropriate # of chips in.

MP turns over pocket 8s for middle set.
UTG turns over .

The river was a spade, giving UTG+1 the nuts. He dragged a ~175 BB pot and went on to win the tournament.

jesus

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

If first is 10x it’s a very top heavy payout, especially if $25 of each buyin was taken out for bounties.

I’m not even sure how 5 places pay if that’s the case. 10/4/2/1.5/1 ?


“In general I agree. But if there is ever a spot where setmining with this stack size would be appropriate, this would be it.
I mean - the pot is already bloated because of the irregular PFR sizing, and there are two opponents to pay you off if you hit. Stack damage is always a consideration but it's of little consequence given the other stacks.”


To argue that large open raises and low spr is ideal for set mining is definitely going against conventional wisdom, that’s for sure.

 

[ekricket]

Thoughts in general about setmining at this stage of the tournament?

At this point with mid stack I’m looking for some if the smaller stacks to leave or the bigger ones to clash before I die on a small pair.
Since the pot has already been primed for clash I would have folded. If it was limped to me I would min raise just to make a pot worth others clashing for, and happily dump it once they get going - even with bottom set. But I might have done that even with 83 of suit.
I’m not going out on the bubble with pocket fours that turn into bottom set though. I’d rather be broomcorns uncle. I’d use them to initiate some action but since the actions going I’d fold pre.

There’s other things to manipulate in tournaments besides just playing your cards like a cash game - you are well aware of this so not lecturing, just highlighting it. At this point in a tournament I’m trying just as hard to create conflicts that ding other players stacks as I am trying to win pots that help mine.
Min raise is a big tool that often gets overlooked in favor of the all in hammer in tournaments. Sometimes you have to play the tournament more than you are playing your cards if you know what I mean.