QQ pre-flop line check (1 Viewer)

[MrBo]

Playing 5-handed at @MikesDad $.25/.50 game last night. Still relatively early in the game, Hero is sitting on around $105 and Villain in this hand covers with a bit more. Hero has a fairly TAG - some would say super-nitty - image at the table, and Villain is @MikesDad, who I hope will not have his ego over-inflated by me describing him as a solid TAG capable of mixing it up, but who tends to get it in good when a lot of money goes in pre-flop. On to the hand...

Hero opens to $2.50 from cutoff with .
Button calls the $2.50 (sidenote: Button player is a fairly spewy LAG who likes to see flops and put a lot of money in bad; he is known to occasionally/regularly cold call large pre-flop raises with marginal hands).
Villain makes it $17 to go from the SB.
BB folds.
Hero... ???

 

[MegaTon44]

A large majority of lower limit players 3 bet pre with QQ+. Since you have QQ, to me that narrows it down. However, I'm nitty as hell, so feel free to brush off

 

[DrStrange]

My cards are headed to the muck, a sigh muck not a snap muck. Here is my logic:

We don't know the table is making adjustments for five handed play - but lets say they are adjusting properly for the most part. If this adjustment isn't being made then the fold should be a snap fold.

Hero is "fairly TAG - some would say super-nitty". No one is thinking this is a steal attempt or a later position raise. Hero means business with his raise.

Villain is "a solid TAG capable of mixing it up, but who tends to get it in good when a lot of money goes in pre-flop." So what makes us think this hand is different? Villain is OOP vs a known Tagish Hero. I am inclined to grant a really tight range to villain, QQ+ plus AK seems reasonable. { Hero likely knows if AK is in an OOP 3-bet range here but we don't know } Villain should find it quite profitable to adopt a set mining with a hand like JJ/TT - likely much more profitable than blowing off the hand with a big raise and taking down the $5.75 {keeping in mind the "blow everyone off their hand" plan has some serious downside risk relative to the $5.75 in question}. Villain often gets all of Hero's stack when he flops a set and his most likely risk is a modest $2.25.

Hero's hand is certainly better than average for his raise, but even so, the pocket queens might not be such a good hand vs Villain's 3-bet range.

Hero's stack isn't deep enough to set mine with the queens. If Hero calls the preflop raise, the SPR is something like two. Hero is going to stack off on many flops even fearing AA/KK knowing that villain could be c-betting AK.

There are some conta-indicators.

Villain's raise seems a bit large - $14.50 into a $8 pot. Maybe villain always overbets the pot when in such bad position. Maybe the big raise is a tell implying a hand not wanting a call. Does Hero think villain raises so much with AA? KK? I can find plenty of respect for Hero making a table read here and restricting AA/KK from villain's range. However, we can't make that read for Hero here.

Hero might know villain well enough to pick off c-bets with air vs c-bets with the goods.

Based on what we know, I think Hero should fold. -=- DrStrange

 

[onerand]

That's a huge 3bet. Would he do that with better? I probably call and see a flop, but its a tough spot. Folding is not bad.

 

[MrBo]

Thanks for the feedback, folks. I was going to mention the unusual 3-bet sizing in the OP, but figured I'd see what others thought. Let's start there:

• This is definitely a good amount larger than how I would expect Villain to size his 3-bet, and I'm basing this on player together for a few years now. In position, he'd probably go more on the $8-10 range, and out of position, more like $10-13 (fun fact: he likes prime number bets). Also, it's not unusual in these games to get 20x+BB raises going 4-5 way to the flop (though less likely tonight given we're only 5-handed obviously).
• Villain's is capable of 3-betting much wider than premium hands. He's not the old-man-coffee type to do this big raise only with QQ+ and totally telegraph his hand, then say "I didn't want to see a flop" or "I didn't want to get them cracked." Given that my opening range isn't terribly tight, with some suited connectors and Ax, KJo, type hands in there, and Button's range is even wider, Villain is probably 3-betting a decent range of hands.
• Villain knows that I'm most likely folding the majority of my opening range here to his $17 raise.
• Villain also probably figures that Button may call to see a flop regardless of his holding. If I were to call in front, unlikely as it may be, Button is probably always calling as well.

This last point made me a little inclined to think that Villain had a fairly strong hand and was targeting the Button player, trying to build a pot with a solid equity edge. At the same time, I don't think Villain has to have only KK or AA in this spot at all. The $17 raise does somewhat scream "just fold and let me have this $5, I don't want to play a 3-way pot out of position," but I don't think Villain would want to risk losing more value like that with those big hands. However, since the Button is likely to call quite often regardless of the 3-bet size, it is possible that Villain is super-strong and just wants to build a pot heads-up in hopes of getting stacks in (Villain covers Button btw, who I think was sitting on $80-100).

So, with these conflicting thoughts on what Villain is up to, Hero still has and... ???

 

[Trihonda]

I'm a donk... I'd probably just shove.

But I can see the arguments for a call or a fold...

 

[krafticus]

$45 to go, fold to a 4-bet shove..?

 

[Ellasdaddy]

Agree with @DrStrange here. With what we know here, I'm likely folding and going with my established read on villain until I see/feel otherwise.

 

[BGinGA]

Given all the extra info, it smells a lot more like pocket tens or jacks -- or even AT-AQ -- (who doesn't want any callers), than KK or AA (who would be raising smaller and want callers). I'm shoving with QQ, and putting the decision-making onus on him.

 

[AWenger]

Hero opens to $2.50 from cutoff with .

Hero has a fairly TAG - some would say super-nitty - image at the table

Some = anyone who's played with you at least twice.

In general, when facing a re-raise, players should call or raise when their hand is near the top of their range, and fold when their hand is near the bottom of their range. So, being that the bottom of your 5x opening range from the cutoff might be JJ, QQ is near the bottom. (I guess I'm half-joking, half-serious here.)

In a 5-handed game, I don't think I'm folding QQ here, but I don't know what it's like to have your image at the table. If you think Villian is ever re-raising you (& button player) with 99, TT, or JJ, AK, or AQ in this spot, I think a raise is in order with QQ. And if you happen to be up against AA or KK, you still have 18% equity if you happen to get it all-in preflop.

 

[Trihonda]

Given all the extra info, it smells a lot more like pocket tens or jacks -- or even AT-AQ -- (who doesn't want any callers), than KK or AA (who would be raising smaller and want callers). I'm shoving with QQ, and putting the decision-making onus on him.

Given that you've described the hero as a super tight player, a shove here might get villain's KK to fold... but agree with BG in that this doesn't look/small like AA or even KK. I can see the benefit of iso-ing with AA or KK, but that sizing isn't trying to ISO, it's trying to take it down now. And if you have AA or KK, you're losing a ton of equity by blowing people off weaker holdings preflop.

 

[Chicken Rob]

I'm frequently accused of being a nit and I'm never ever folding queens in this spot. 5-handed? Raise. You give villain too much credit.

 

[JoseRijo]

Are we raising for value because we will get caused by worse? Or are we "semi-bluffing" to try to get AK to fold? Neither sounds like a great option. You would be better off 4-betting T9s or some such nonsense.

If I'm MikesDad and the button calls your 4-bet, I'm abso-positively jamming AK. I'm with onerand and calling.

 

[Anthony Martino]

That raise is ridiculously large. Generally when playing in lower limit games a raise like that is something like AJ suited or TT/JJ that doesn't want to see a flop and just wants to take it down now.

Of course based on your description of Villain that may not be the case. Can Villain expect to get a call when he raises this large usually? If not, why would he make such a raise? If he's got AA/KK he shouldn't mind being up against one to two other hands, and I would think should raise an amount to induce action, rather than discourage it.

If Hero held AA/KK himself in this spot, would he reraise or flat generally?

I'm leaning towards calling here, we have position post-flop and provided Villain doesn't hold AA we can definitely scare him into believing we do. However, if we cold-call what is the likelihood of the Button player coming along for the ride and us losing our positional advantage?

 

[MrBo]

I'm a donk... I'd probably just shove.

I'm shoving with QQ, and putting the decision-making onus on him.

Always an option, I just don't think Villain is ever calling with worse. Maybe AK... maybe. Shoving might get us to fold out AK's, TT/JJ, and lesser hands, and we win $20, but when we do get called we're likely way behind or flipping at best.

$45 to go, fold to a 4-bet shove..?

If my math is correct, at that point we'd only need about 28% equity to call off and break even. Still not enough if we can narrow it down to KK+, but if we mix in even only AKs combos in Villain's range I think it's way too exploitable to put in almost half our stack and fold. Ehh?

So, being that the bottom of your 5x opening range from the cutoff might be JJ, QQ is near the bottom

Yup, that is totally the bottom of my range, and you can totally keep that in mind next time we play cash together

a shove here might get villain's KK to fold

I really doubt that. Maybe if we were 400+BB's deep in this game and I was cold 5-betting all-in in front of him and accidentally exposed one and a half of my cards

we cold-call what is the likelihood of the Button player coming along for the ride and us losing our positional advantage?

Button loves to see flops and would most likely hop in behind us, especially since he closes the action. $2.50 or $17, if he has a hand he fancies he's generally not folding.

-----

Interesting to see a pretty even balance of suggestions for fold, call, and raise/shove, and I can see the arguments for pretty much all of them. Folding is safe if we're really thrown for a loop in this spot and don't know where we stand, plus we're only in for 5 BB's, but definitely exploitable in the long run. I don't think calling and likely playing 3-way is terrible. We can plan to get it in on a lot of decent flops and safely get away if an A/K flops and we face more heat. We can also probably get paid off better by hands like TT/JJ on low flops than if we 4-bet pre. Raising will likely get us heads-up vs. Villain and we may win a decent chunk of change without a showdown. Question is are we planning to raise-fold, raise-call, or shove ourselves?

I'll post the next bits of the hand history tomorrow, have to hop off now. One more little bit of info I forgot to mention earlier - the table has decided to play "show one" on this particular evening (i.e. if Hero and Button just fold to the raise we get to see one card of Villain's choosing).

 

[MikesDad]

Villain is @MikesDad, who I hope will not have his ego over-inflated by me describing him as a solid TAG capable of mixing it up, but who tends to get it in good when a lot of money goes in pre-flop.

 

[WedgeRock]

In position, he'd probably go more on the $8-10 range ... (fun fact: he likes prime number bets).

 

[MrBo]

Well in the "..." part of your quote I was originally going to say 10-12 but went with 10-13 instead. 13 is a prime number, right? Also, 17 as well?

 

[WedgeRock]

Just seizing the opportunity to bust chops... I knew what you were referring to, and I intentionally cut it out to make my point... Thus the winky smiley face...

 

[MrBo]

Back to the action:

Hero opens to $2.50 from cutoff with .
Button calls the $2.50 (sidenote: Button player is a fairly spewy LAG who likes to see flops and put a lot of money in bad; he is known to occasionally/regularly cold call large pre-flop raises with marginal hands).
Villain makes it $17 to go from the SB.
BB folds.
Hero thinks for a bit and starts cutting out chips, eventually deciding to raise to $37.
Button folds.
Villain quickly sighs and says "I'm all in."
Hero...???

My thinking with the $37 was a smaller raise would look even stronger, like I want a call or am trying to induce a shove. Also I'd be slightly less committed and could maaaaaybe lay it down if Villain shows even more strength and I decide he must have me crushed. Eh?

 

[MrBo]

Just seizing the opportunity to bust chops... I knew what you were referring to, and I intentionally cut it out to make my point... Thus the winky smiley face...

Chops officially busted. I'm a high school math teacher so you succeeded in sending me into a panic that perhaps summer vacation was starting to eat away at my knowledge of prime numbers I'm sure there'll be plenty of more opportunities to bust my chops at the end of this hand history.

 

[Trihonda]

Ok, as played, I probably lay it down. I'd have preferred a shove pre, to put him on the tough decision. But I have a feeling zthe hero calls, and loses...?

 

[BGinGA]

If considering calling here, it makes a great case for shoving yourself.

As played, still not convinced that villain isn't making a play at the table nit.

 

[WedgeRock]

My thinking with the $37 was a smaller raise would look even stronger, like I want a call or am trying to induce a shove

Lol. Be careful what you wish for.

Unless he's good actor, sigh shove says he thinks he's probably flipping or behind, or somewhere close.

EDIT: But as FDL says, he could think he's behind with KK. Lol.

 

[FDLmold]

Sigh shove is KK, expecting you to have AA.

 

[krafticus]

Back to the action:

Hero opens to $2.50 from cutoff with .
Button calls the $2.50 (sidenote: Button player is a fairly spewy LAG who likes to see flops and put a lot of money in bad; he is known to occasionally/regularly cold call large pre-flop raises with marginal hands).
Villain makes it $17 to go from the SB.
BB folds.
Hero thinks for a bit and starts cutting out chips, eventually deciding to raise to $37.
Button folds.
Villain quickly sighs and says "I'm all in."
Hero...???

My thinking with the $37 was a smaller raise would look even stronger, like I want a call or am trying to induce a shove. Also I'd be slightly less committed and could maaaaaybe lay it down if Villain shows even more strength and I decide he must have me crushed. Eh?

he has 66. it is his signature move. !!! ;-)

Mark

 

[Chicken Rob]

Unless you have a solid read with the sigh shove, I get it in here with QQ 5 handed. You're not deep enough to fold.

 

[MrBo]

Unless he's good actor

He definitely can be. My gut reaction to the quick sigh shove was it's an anti-tell of some sort, he has AA/KK, and perhaps thinks I'm committed to calling so "let's just get on with it (yaaawn)" sort of behavior.

 

[MikesDad]

he has 66. it is his signature move. !!! ;-)

Mark

Only against you my friend

 

[MikesDad]

I'll add to the thread when Bo's done to give some inkling of what I was thinking.