Pocket Jacks again

DrStrange

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Playing $0.25/$0.50 live, eight handed ($20 max buy-in). We are just past the half way point in an unusually feisty session. This game is normally loose/passive/sticky but tonight much of the table is playing well outside their game. Maybe not "better" but certainly less predictable. We all have significant playing time together.

Cast of characters:

Hero sits in middle position with $90. Hero has been unlucky tonight having jammed three times the solid favorite but lady luck was not friendly in those hands. Hero has been plugging away though and is winning. People have seen Hero's cards a lot of times tonight and they were generally good. Hero's table image is good - people know Hero is tight but still play vs his raises.

CO has $50 and has been up and down for the session. She earned a big payday the day before the game making her ready to gamble. Typically a hyper-loose calling station, tonight she is even looser and occasionally tossing in some unexpected bets. Most times you can be sure trouble is coming the few times she raises but it is not so clear this session.

UTG+1 has $60 on a $100+ buy-in. She is a little too loose/limpy to be a true TAG but its close enough to TAG for us. I never have figured why she loses more than wins but somehow she can't cash in on the table's willingness to play any two cards in a $20 buy-in game. Tonight she has widened her ranges a little but nothing totally outlandish.

The hand:

Two limps, including UTG+1 brings us to Hero with :jc: :jd:. Hero raises to $2.50 (normal sizing). CO calls, folds to UTG+1 who raises to $5. Folds to Hero.

There is $11.25 in the pot just prior to Hero's turn to act. Hero owes $2.50. Let's stipulate that CO is not folding if hero doesn't raise.

Action on Hero, fold, call or raise? If raising how much?

DrStrange
 

courage

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Based on UTG+1 style, I'd flat and see a flop. What hands does villain limp/min-raise with? It shows little creativity and turns hand more face up, esp. if OOP. So she has AK at minimum, QQ - AA. You could make an argument for folding here based on short stacks of villains and less implied odds but we know CO will come along so I'd set mine or play cautiously.

Expect variance.:p
 

DrStrange

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Looks like Hero is getting 5 or 6 to 1 direct odds with $55 behind (22x the bet to call.) Perhaps I am not properly cautious but that seems pretty solid to set min with (5-1 direct odds plus 22x implied.)

DrStrange
 

Chippy McChiperson

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What Courage said. What is her limp-three bet range? Especially if she a slightly loose-limpy TAG like you said? Probably mostly hands that have jacks crushed. Call the $2.50 to set mine, and go from there.
 

jbutler

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But how often is she limp min-raising with AA/KK? Limp 4x is something else. Looks like AK a lot to me.

I'd make it $10 and evaluate.
 

courage

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But how often is she limp min-raising with AA/KK? Limp 4x is something else. Looks like AK a lot to me.

I'd make it $10 and evaluate.
Yeah I agree, and I don't mind this line either esp if hero is willing to fold pf, but just not sure I could do that given stack sizes and equity we still have even vs her strong range. I think we agree her weakest holdings would be AQ, 99, TT. Are you willing to get it in pf? Just curious.
 

grandgnu

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Based on UTG+1 style, I'd flat and see a flop. What hands does villain limp/min-raise with? It shows little creativity and turns hand more face up, esp. if OOP. So she has AK at minimum, QQ - AA. You could make an argument for folding here based on short stacks of villains and less implied odds but we know CO will come along so I'd set mine or play cautiously.

Expect variance.:p


What this man said sounds correct to me. I expect to be at best coin-flipping against villians range here. However, we do have position on her post-flop (although we'll also have the CO with position on both of us should we just call)

Still, I feel like we can see a flop and evaluate from there based on villians actions and the board texture.
 

MoscowRadio

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What this man said sounds correct to me. I expect to be at best coin-flipping against villians range here. However, we do have position on her post-flop (although we'll also have the CO with position on both of us should we just call)

Still, I feel like we can see a flop and evaluate from there based on villians actions and the board texture.

The Gnu just said everything I wanted to say. In this spot I think calling>raising>>>folding.
 

Ben

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Agreed with others here - calling is the play. If we are ahead of her range it is marginally so and I don't see any reason why a bigger pair needs to get my whole stack here. On a low flop I'm folding to a decent-sized c-bet, or calling a small c-bet and making her fire again.
 

MoscowRadio

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Agreed with others here - calling is the play. If we are ahead of her range it is marginally so and I don't see any reason why a bigger pair needs to get my whole stack here. On a low flop I'm folding to a decent-sized c-bet, or calling a small c-bet and making her fire again.

I'm just curious what size c-bet you're folding to? This is assuming the board runs low.
 

DrStrange

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*** on to the flop *** No, the board does not run out low.

Hero calls, CO calls. $16.25 in the pot, three way action. $55 effective stacks vs UTG+1, $45 vs CO.

Flop is :8d: :kc: :3h:

UTG+1 leads for $10. CO does not look excited or bored, I have no idea what she will do.

Action on Hero, fold, call or raise? If raising how much and why? If we want Hero to call or raise, how are we ranging UTG+1?

DrStrange
 

grandgnu

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I'm fine with a fold here. Or we can call and see if she slows down on the turn and we can get to a cheap showdown since we have position on her.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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Fold. I mean we're set mining and we didn't hit our set. One of the few hands that we were ahead of in the limp-raiser's range we are now behind (AK). Also, there is the cutoff behind who hasn't acted. I think mucking is the best option.
 

jbutler

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Fold. I mean we're set mining and we didn't hit our set. One of the few hands that we were ahead of in the limp-raiser's range we are now behind (AK). Also, there is the cutoff behind who hasn't acted. I think mucking is the best option.

agreed.
 

MoscowRadio

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Given the description of UTG+1 I feel like you could certainly fold, but I'm not keen on tossing a pair like JJ just yet with only one over card on the board. You said that she's opened up her range a bit, but her limp/3-bet has got me a little confused. I'm not entirely sure how to range her in this spot. I would put TT or 99 at the very bottom of her range here.
 
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BGinGA

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*** on to the flop *** No, the board does not run out low.

Hero calls, CO calls. $16.25 in the pot, three way action. $55 effective stacks vs UTG+1, $45 vs CO.

Flop is :8d: :kc: :3h:

UTG+1 leads for $10. CO does not look excited or bored, I have no idea what she will do.

Action on Hero, fold, call or raise? If raising how much and why? If we want Hero to call or raise, how are we ranging UTG+1?

DrStrange

Rather than just dumping the hand, I'm tempted to min-raise to $20 - hoping that UTG+1 is just taking a free stab and that CO will fold if facing a bigger bet amount (not to mention a raise with action pending after her play). Jacks may very well be good here, and I just don't see how we find out by simply calling (or folding). I rate it as raise > fold > call.

If called (or raised) by either player, I'm probably not putting any more $$ in the pot, but I don't think just giving up a big pair is correct here. Not very many plausible hands have us beat: AK, AA, KK, QQ, 88, maybe KQ.... and only AK/AA/KK/88 will likely continue after the min-raise.
 

DrStrange

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So, BGinGA how are you ranging UTG+1? Hero would be risking $20 to win $26.75, he will need to win 43% of the time for this to be profitable

I would think a raise would clear out all the hands less than top pair. 6 ways to hold AA, 3 ways to hold KK, 12 ways to hold AK = 21 reasonable hands for the check/minraise preflop line that hero will lose to. 6 ways to hold QQ which will presumably fold to a raise. Hero needs to find 15+ more losers in the range to make the raise line sensible. {Plus we can't forget about CO who will be almost unfoldable if she holds top pair+}

I'd have an easier time figuring this out if the preflop line weren't so unusual.

DrStrange
 

fish72s

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Also I should mention that it is a statistical fact that when dealt JJ, the odds of your opponent having a better hand will increase conditionally on your actions:
.
In other words, using this situation as an example;
if you were to fold, villain is more likely to show 99.
If you were to call then villain will have AQ, but and a Q will come on the turn.
If you were to raise then the likelihood of villain having KK goes up to 99 % (1% of the time they will have AK.)
 

fish72s

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This reminds me of a hand a long time ago that I almost won with Jacks......


Just ignore me. Sorry for the thread Jacks. (PI)
 
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BGinGA

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So, BGinGA how are you ranging UTG+1?

With no real history on her pre-flop min-raise tendencies, I'd range UTG+1 with almost any pair mid-range and up, plus ATs, AJs, and AQ/AK . The min-raise may simply have been not believing Hero's raise as reflecting a really strong hand (did you give off any intentional tells?), and not necessarily just AA/KK/QQ. Could be she's just making a move, although she probably has ~something~ decent and not junk cards. Also unlikely that CO hit anything on this flop (and could be holding a wide variety of hands, from suited connectors to A-rag).

Extending fish's jacks-are-losers theory, it seems the further into a hand you play them, the more likely they are to lose: winning preflop>flop>turn>river. I probably would have re-raised pre-flop to avoid the spot I'm in now.
 

DrStrange

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*** Results ***

Hero folds, CO calls.

The villains check it down till the end.

Final board: < :8d: :kc: :3h > :qs: :6c:
UTG+1 tables :ah: :3c: for bottom pair.
CO tables :tc: :8c: for the winner.

In the end the hand is all about assigning ranges to UTG+1 - and it seems that Hero got it really wrong. Though I assign 5% of almost any range to wild & crazy hands, I suspect her actual range was far wider than I thought at the time. Limp / min reraise seems strong but in her case it wasn't {this time}.

Boogers! got out played -=- DrStrange
 

Chippy McChiperson

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You were caught between the aggressor and the last player to act. Had you been last to act in the hand, i think the post flop play would have turned out differently. Position is a wonderful thing.
 

Mental Nomad

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Boogers! got out played -=- DrStrange

You didn't have a read on UTG+1's Limp-FuckIt frequency.

You were caught between the aggressor and the last player to act. Had you been last to act in the hand, i think the post flop play would have turned out differently. Position is a wonderful thing.

Nice insight, Chippy. Jacks-in-the-middle was hard-pressed to call, even with only one overcard on the board, was forced to make a decision on marginal information, and folded the best hand.

Middle-pair-with-a-back-door, acting last, was able to rationalize a safe call... followed by a free ride to winning showdown. But with only tens, they had to think about UTG+1's range, and clearly had it wider than Hero.

If hero and CO's cards are reversed, the tens are an easy fold, and the jacks are an easy call.

Am curious - if Hero were in last position with jacks, and the T-8 folded... would Hero call for the turn? Or would the bad read on UTG+1's range still inspire a fold?
 

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Playing $0.25/$0.50 live, eight handed ($20 max buy-in). We are just past the half way point in an unusually feisty session. This game is normally loose/passive/sticky but tonight much of the table is playing well outside their game. Maybe not "better" but certainly less predictable. We all have significant playing time together.

Cast of characters:

Hero sits in middle position with $90. Hero has been unlucky tonight having jammed three times the solid favorite but lady luck was not friendly in those hands. Hero has been plugging away though and is winning. People have seen Hero's cards a lot of times tonight and they were generally good. Hero's table image is good - people know Hero is tight but still play vs his raises.

CO has $50 and has been up and down for the session. She earned a big payday the day before the game making her ready to gamble. Typically a hyper-loose calling station, tonight she is even looser and occasionally tossing in some unexpected bets. Most times you can be sure trouble is coming the few times she raises but it is not so clear this session.

UTG+1 has $60 on a $100+ buy-in. She is a little too loose/limpy to be a true TAG but its close enough to TAG for us. I never have figured why she loses more than wins but somehow she can't cash in on the table's willingness to play any two cards in a $20 buy-in game. Tonight she has widened her ranges a little but nothing totally outlandish.

The hand:

Two limps, including UTG+1 brings us to Hero with :jc: :jd:. Hero raises to $2.50 (normal sizing). CO calls, folds to UTG+1 who raises to $5. Folds to Hero.

There is $11.25 in the pot just prior to Hero's turn to act. Hero owes $2.50. Let's stipulate that CO is not folding if hero doesn't raise.

Action on Hero, fold, call or raise? If raising how much?

DrStrange

Raise to $13. Chance you take it down right here, or villain re-raises and we can safely put her on a QQ-AA hand and fold pre. If she flats, then you have some evaluation to do. I don't like flatting here, seeing a A-high or K-high flop, and then she continual bets as she's got first-in vig and you're forced to fold.
 
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