Play QQ with me (1 Viewer)

[Frogzilla]

Small Saturday MTT at a casino. Middle stages, not near the bubble.

8 handed, Blinds 400/800, 100 ante.
Stacks:
V1 (UTG+1): 16000
Hero (Cutoff): 30000
V2 (Button): 20000

Action:
UTG folds
V1 limps 800
Folds to us in CO and we have

 

[gopherblue]

Smooth call.



Kidding. Raise 4x.

 

[detroitdad]

Kidding. Raise 4x.

Yep.......

 

[Frogzilla]

Preflop we size up to 3000 (3.75x) given the extra limp money in the pot. Two callers to the flop.

400/800 w 100 ante
Pre:
V1 (18000) limps UTG.
Hero (30000) raises to 3000 with .
V2 calls from button.
V1 calls.

Flop (11000)

V1 checks.
Hero?

 

[Jimulacrum]

Stacks are pretty shallow. I like a c-bet, and we can get away with a smallish one here that will still be stack-threatening for both villains. I think 5K will work.

Obviously not a good flop, and any raise here will almost certainly indicate you're beaten and have to fold.

 

[BRMLOL]

Do we have any reads on either player?

On this flop I'd be less concerned with V1 and more weary of V2 otb. V1's range has more small pairs than anything, imo where as V2 has some Kx hands more often. Taking away KQ as you block that heavily he does hold KTs, KJs, smaller pairs as well, lets say; 55-99 and maybe half the time he is 3betting TT and JJ. Some T9s, as well as some suited Aces (A2s-ATs?)

I don't hate if you were to throw out a cbet here for around +- 4k.

 

[ChaosRock]

Bet 4K.

 

[CraigT78]

Cbet 4 to 5k, fold to aggression

 

[Frogzilla]

Do we have any reads on either player?

We have been at this table about an orbit and have made the following observations

-Texas A&M is dangerously close to blowing a 17-0 1st quarter lead to Arkansas, whom got destroyed by Division 3 North Texas just a couple weeks prior. What the hell Jimbo
-miller lite is not the best beer, but that’s like the slowest Ferrari and yes I’ll have another please
-V1 seems bad and called down light on the river once
-V2 seems tight

 

[BGinGA]

Unless these villains are particularly loose tournament players, the most probable hand that beats us is KJ and maybe A3s otb (AK and KK would have reraised pre, and we block KQ).

Firing a 4k c-bet should take it down. I think checking is a huge mistake.

 

[Frogzilla]

We’re all on the same page here, so keeping it moving. We go insultingly low with the cbet sizing at 18% pot. V2 folds confirming yes he is tight and V1 flats.


400/800 w 100 ante
Pre:
V1 (18000) limps UTG.
Hero (30000) raises to 3000 with .
V2 calls from button.
V1 calls.

Flop (11000)

V1 checks.
Hero leads 2000.
V2 folds.
V1 calls.

Turn (15000)

V1 checks.
Hero?

 

[ChaosRock]

It is a good thing V2 folded from the BTN. If he/she calls with V1 still to act, I wouldn't be happy.

IMO, two lines are good here. Either bet turn/check river, or check turn/call river. I think I favor the former a bit better since we control the pot size. I like a 6K bet here. If V1 raises, Hero would be in a super tough spot but would have to fold I guess. The later line is not bad as well since we might pick up some bluffs from Villain on the river. With the turn bet we are hoping some smaller pairs find a call.

 

[Jimulacrum]

1. Check back.

Justification: What's there to call with on that flop? A king or a three.

OR

2. Bet 5K. Fold to a raise.

Justification: It's possible V1 called because he hated the idea of folding a pocket pair or even a big ace-high to such a small bet. This is the tough thing about making tiny bets; it often makes our opponents harder to read. Against some players, I might float that 2K with just about anything.

If so, he may fold to the 5K bet, which is great, or he may call and check the river, which is also swell. (If the latter, check back, duh.)

I'm leaning toward #2, especially because of the player summary of V1. He could well have something like 99 and is telling himself you didn't hit the king, or just being sticky because pocket pair.

 

[Gobbs]

Pre-flop, raise to 4k.
Post-flop, all-in.

 

[Frogzilla]

We opt to bet small again on the turn with 33% pot, thinking it’ll buy us a river check which we will happily check back. However it does not go as planned, and we are in a spot. Call or fold, my friends?


400/800 w 100 ante
Pre:
V1 (18000) limps UTG.
Hero (30000) raises to 3000 with .
V2 calls from button.
V1 calls.

Flop (11000)

V1 checks.
Hero leads 2000.
V2 folds.
V1 calls.

Turn (15000)

V1 checks.
Hero bets 5000.
V1 calls.

River (25000)

V1 snap jams all-in for 8000.
Hero?

 

[BRMLOL]

Villain has about 13k left with 15k in the middle.

Obviously wishing the turn flop bet was a bit more, as the 2k basically comes off as a check and V will float with every pair in his range and some possible backdoor draws.

Unfortunately 88 now gets there, and would 100% be checking to you and if we do check back and he jams river what are we doing?

I don't hate either move, checking or betting. If you are betting though, are you piling? 30%? If we go 30%, V has 35% psb remaining. If we are betting 4.5k-5k are we folding to his shove getting almost 4 to 1 on a call? What if he calls the bet and then just lead piles?

I think we check back here and evaluate river.


Edit-- You say after an orbit of player he seems like a bad player and has called down light. If he has called your flop and turn bet with a hand such as 99 or TT, is he going to be shoving this river, knowing you are almost always calling. It just seems as if it is never a bluff and he shows up with 88 or some random suited Kx almost always.

I can't come up with enough hands that he shows up with that we beat vs his value shove. Being very loose with his range at the river we are about 29% equity. Gotta lay this one down unfortunately, imo.

 

[Anthony Martino]

400/800 w 100 ante
Pre:
V1 (18000) limps UTG.
Hero (30000) raises to 3000 with .
V2 calls from button.
V1 calls.

Limping Villain has a little over 20 bigs. That's usually the perfect size to jam over a raiser. Limping from UTG could be setting up for a play like that, although it could just be a loose passive player who calls too much.

I like a raise to between 2800-3400 in this spot.

Flop (11000)

V1 checks.
Hero leads 2000.
V2 folds.
V1 calls.

I agree with the others on the c-bet. A king is certainly in our range and this board is dry as far as drawing hands go so I expect it to take it down a good percentage of the time. That being said, I think the 2k bet is too small and invites being played back against. Someone with 99 could think they're good here and raise you.

I think 5K is fine to get the job done

Turn (15000)

V1 checks.
Hero bets 5000.
V1 calls.

Hmmmm, well now. the problem we face here is that Villain 1 only started with 18k and has already committed 5K of that to the pot. With the pot size at 15K and his remaining stack at 13K I lean towards a check for pot control. If Villain is a loose/passive type then we avoid paying them off when they have the King here, or potentially scaring them away with another bet when they're behind with a small pocket pair.

Another issue is that if we bet here we make it REALLY hard to find a fold on the river or if we're check-shoved on given pot sizes and the potential for Villain to make that play with a number of smaller pairs we beat.

River (25000)

V1 snap jams all-in for 8000.
Hero?

Well we have to call 8K to win 33K so we're getting more than 4:1 on our money and have to be right 20% of the time to be break-even. Does Villain ever have a 3 in their hand? I usually discount it, but there's a LOT of stupid players out there who would limp call with A3 s00ted and such junk.

Villain check-calling the flop and turn and then jamming the river with Kx also makes sense given they've made a full house.

88 is possible given they might float that flop and then they hit the turn and continue.

Villain could also think a hand like 66-Jacks is good here too, I've seen a lot of crazy plays in my time. In their mind "I HAZ FULL HOUSE, IS NUTZ!"

However, if this particular player is passive, then when someone like that comes out firing it's generally an indicator of strength.

The problem we face her mathematically is are we good approx. 20-25% of the time to make this call break-even or something profitable? It depends on the player, but I think at this point we're essentially locked in given the pot size and I would likely call here without additional info/reads on this particular opponent.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Such an awkward river. You know some players will see this river with any pocket pair, and their brains will scream "FULL HOUSE!!!!!!" with no real regard for its relative strength. And that's pretty awkward for QQ, which is now the 6th nuts or thereabouts.

V1 could also be doing this with AQ or AJ that failed to spike an ace, though I'd count that as a thin possibility.

And of course, there are the hands that beat you: any 3, any K, AA, KK, and 88. This line makes sense with all of those.

As @Anthony Martino said while I was writing this reply, it's easy to find the 20–25% of the time that QQ is good here. I think we could find a fair amount more than that. But either way, it's a thin call.

If you fold, you're 100% to have 22K to play with.

If you call, you're about 30% to have 55K, or 70% to have 14K, which comes out to 26.3K.

All in all, you could just toss a coin to decide this one for you.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Actually, you should look at your opponent and say "if I show, will you fold?" and then if their smile and laugh is genuine you fold, and if it's forced/strained/insincere you call.

Of course, if they're a donkey and they think their 3's full of 6's is DE NUTZ! cause I HAZ FULL HOUZE! then there's not much you can do about folding the winner in that instance.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Wish you would allow more time between betting stages to allow more posters to chime in.

I would have raised a bit more preflop.
I for sure would have bet more, a lot more, post flop.
I would shoved when V1 checks the turn.

 

[Frogzilla]

Wish you would allow more time between betting stages to allow more posters to chime in.

I would have raised a bit more preflop.
I for sure would have bet more, a lot more, post flop.
I would shoved when V1 checks the turn.

Fair feedback on post timing. Took a day off and bored.

I also would have sized up more flop with a day to think about it, but was getting cocky in the moment.

What do you do on this river (admittedly not a spot we should be in, but we’re here and action is on us)

 

[CraigT78]

Took a day off and bored

Should have told me, I'm ripe for a cash game

 

[BGinGA]

We opt to bet small again on the turn with 33% pot, thinking it’ll buy us a river check which we will happily check back. However it does not go as planned, and we are in a spot. Call or fold, my friends?


400/800 w 100 ante
Pre:
V1 (18000) limps UTG.
Hero (30000) raises to 3000 with .
V2 calls from button.
V1 calls.

Flop (11000)

V1 checks.
Hero leads 2000.
V2 folds.
V1 calls.

Turn (15000)

V1 checks.
Hero bets 5000.
V1 calls.

River (25000)

V1 snap jams all-in for 8000.
Hero?

I don't see the wisdom behind V1 moving all-in with quads, unless he really thinks you have a K and made a full-house on the river. But it doesn't look like a bluff, either. Which leaves lesser full houses (with a pocket pair), but actually feels more like Kx (probably KJ) that went from a flopped two-pair to a full-house on the river, and even if you have AK, he's chopping -- so in his mind, he's free-rolling. I'm folding QQ.

Also betting much bigger on the flop and the turn, but not sure it would have made any difference in this situation.

 

[WedgeRock]

Villain could also think a hand like 66-Jacks is good here too, I've seen a lot of crazy plays in my time. In their mind "I HAZ FULL HOUSE, IS NUTZ!"

This was my thinking. If he's a bad player, he may miss that any larger pocket pair beats his threes full of middle pair. He might even be playing A8 suited and decided you don't have a king.

A better player, I probably fold. This guy? I strongly consider a call.

 

[Frogzilla]

This was a tough one for me. It was such a strange line to me, as that river changed nothing about most hands. I’m not sure why a 3x hand would check/call turn just to lead bomb the river. Same with most kings. If you’re antsy to get it in good, that happens on the turn. This river, and most others, shouldn’t change much, which was the whole point of my small turn bet (trying to buy the river check back and get to showdown).

As mentioned earlier, one hand that the 3 does help a lot is KJ, K9, etc who might be afraid of AK, KQ. That’s the most logical hand to take that line, but the lead bet was almost too fast for that. It would takes a couple seconds for me to decide, hey I have a boat, kicker doesn’t play, I can switch to aggressor for my tournament life.

It was strange enough play on V1 part, with attractive odds, that I decided to call. I expected to be behind half the time or more. I’ll post what v1 showed down tomorrow morning, in case others want to share thoughts. This was fun, thanks y’all!

 

[Payback]

PF 3kish
Flop I'm disagreeing with almost all other posters and checking this one back. I'd do the same here with AK. This is a classic WA/WB. Almost nothing is calling that flop that doesn't have us best since the K hits our range hard.
Turn: If check to bet, otherwise call. As played, take the free card for the reason stated above.
River: Puke/fold.

 

[BRMLOL]

Flop I'm disagreeing with almost all other posters and checking this one back. I'd do the same here with AK. This is a classic WA/WB. Almost nothing is calling that flop that doesn't have us best since the K hits our range hard.

Eh, I guess you could certainly check back this hand with AK but on a low paired board I believe a lot of players will float their medium pairs to one bet and re-eval on the turn. The same goes for our ladies. We could check but we are a lot of the time going to be called by medium pairs, or some Ax with backdoors.

While the K on the flop certainly hits our range more than it does Villain, we also have a lot of opens that have missed. I think it would be extremely exploitable if villain is just tossing in medium strength hands just because a K hits on this dry board.

Lets take a look at our range pre flop; 66+, ATs+, KJs+, AQo+, KQo, QJs, JTs, T9s, A5s. I think that is a fair, semi tight range. Maybe we could take our some hands but that's about 10%. What does V have in his range?

I think if we do bet here we do get called by a lot of smaller pairs, but we definitely need to be betting more than 2k, which is going to be getting called by almost every hand V is limp calling pre.

 

[Frogzilla]

Here it is folks.

400/800 w 100 ante
Pre:
V1 (18000) limps UTG.
Hero (30000) raises to 3000 with .
V2 calls from button.
V1 calls.

Flop (11000)

V1 checks.
Hero leads 2000.
V2 folds.
V1 calls.

Turn (15000)

V1 checks.
Hero bets 5000.
V1 calls.

River (25000)

V1 snap jams all-in for 8000.
Hero tanks, and calls.

Spoiler: Villain shows:

for the airball

 

[Kain8]

Nice call

 

[Mangatang]

Nice result!