PAHWM: Venetian LV 1/3NL, middle pair vs. action player (1 Viewer)

grebe

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Flop bet seems a big big, but that's ok.

Turn: I think a mix of betting and checking is good here. I think a bet of about $65 is good. Right now I am devising a way to get to showdown. If I bet turn I can most likely check river. If I check turn, I'm surely facing a bet river. Also, if we smash the river, we can gain another street of value.
 

Legend5555

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On this particular card against a player that has never check raised, I can get behind another value bet. We are ahead of a bunch of draws that will still call. We are losing to any made hand though. But I also can't imagine getting raised often even by a good player with many non-nut made hands here. So I don't think we need to worry about getting raised very often on the turn. We will clearly have to check back river though. And if we do somehow get raised we will have to fold.

I can also get behind a check if we want to just keep the pot small and potentially bluff catch on a lot of rivers. Though if river comes bad and she just leads big, we likely just have to let it go. Given the further description, it's unlikely she would decide to randomly lead river with something like top pair. So if it bricks and she bets, we catch. If bad river and she bets big, fold. If bad and she bets some small amount, cry call.
 
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Schmendr1ck

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The :2c: on the turn is as innocuous as it gets. How did the Villain react to the turn card? Did she check immediately or did she stare at it for a few seconds? What was her body language like?
Immediate check, no noticeable change in demeanor.
 

Schmendr1ck

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I should also remark that villain consistently acted pretty quickly. She seemed to generally decide on a line before each card came and acted promptly. She had only paused to think a couple of times while Hero had been at the table.
 

JustinInMN

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Turn ($133): :jd::td::6h::2c:
UTG checks. Hero?

Boy I know I am skeptical of getting two streets of value here, but this turn is about as safe as it gets. I think I am going to bet again, assuming its for value. We are a little more than 2x pot effective, so we don't need to go huge. I might go for $50-60. If I get called again, I will probably check most rivers, villain folds, we've won a good pot with a hand that's vulnerable. If villain raises, I think again I am going to give credit for a hand based on a read and lay it down.
 

Taghkanic

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Turn ($133): :jd::td::6h::2c:
UTG checks. Hero?

I am so potting it *again* here. Either take it down, or make all the worse hands and the draws pay to see another card.

I think you can get called by worse and by tons of draws, given the profile. There’s way more of those hands in her range than hands that beat you.

If she has it/gets there this time, reload. You’ll get it back from her eventually.

I think of players like this as “The Bank.” You sometimes park money temporarily with them for future withdrawal.

----

Note: I now see that there is only $53 listed in the pot on the flop, whereas I had computed $66 (1+3+6+6+25+25). Was $13 taken out for rake???
 
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grebe

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I should also remark that villain consistently acted pretty quickly. She seemed to generally decide on a line before each card came and acted promptly. She had only paused to think a couple of times while Hero had been at the table.
She may be villain, but I like her style.
 

Schmendr1ck

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Note: I now see that there is only $53 listed in the pot on the flop, whereas I had computed $66 (1+3+6+6+25+25). Was $13 taken out for rake???
Should be $60 (1+3+6+25+25) minus 5+2 rake. Only one limper who folded, and villian was the straddle.
 

Schmendr1ck

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Venetian 1/3NL
Hero (BTN): about $450
Villain (UTG): about $350

Preflop: UTG straddles for $6. One MP limp to Hero on BTN with :th::9h:, who raises to $25. Blinds fold, UTG calls, MP limper folds. (Note: Hero is surprised that we're seeing a flop heads-up. That was a rarity at this table.)

Flop ($53): :jd::td::6h:
UTG checks. Hero bets $40, Villain calls quickly.

Turn ($133): :jd::td::6h::2c:
UTG checks. Hero bets $75. Villain thinks for about 15-20 seconds and calls.

River ($283): :jd::td::6h::2c::3h:
UTG checks. Hero?
 

Legend5555

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I think it's hard to find worse hands that pay you off for a 3rd value bet. Most of her stuff is whiffed draws. Is she really going to call with T8, T7, 99, 88? Betting again seems like we are bordering on turning our hand into a bluff.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that she pays off with worse, just not a likely enough scenario that I think it's worth going for.

Check back and win a decent pot a decent amount of the time.
 

grebe

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Venetian 1/3NL
Hero (BTN): about $450
Villain (UTG): about $350

Preflop: UTG straddles for $6. One MP limp to Hero on BTN with :th::9h:, who raises to $25. Blinds fold, UTG calls, MP limper folds. (Note: Hero is surprised that we're seeing a flop heads-up. That was a rarity at this table.)

Flop ($53): :jd::td::6h:
UTG checks. Hero bets $40, Villain calls quickly.

Turn ($133): :jd::td::6h::2c:
UTG checks. Hero bets $75. Villain thinks for about 15-20 seconds and calls.

River ($283): :jd::td::6h::2c::3h:
UTG checks. Hero?
I check river. Great runout I think...but it's just too thin for me personally. If we win, I think we got the most value we could hope for. If I missed a street, well, that's why I am a rec.
 

grebe

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She’s really gonna show up with 45o, isn’t she…
Gotta think about ALL the hands, not just the bad beat.

ball bearings.png
 

Taghkanic

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I think there is still a thin value play here (meaning not a small bet, but just going for it when probably only slightly ahead).

I am constantly amazed by lowstakes players who can’t release a small pocket pair or flopped third pair.

The only thing which seems worrisome is the (apparently) uncharacteristic pause. What was she pondering on the turn?

Reading the board for new straight possibilities? Caught bottom set and was pondering a move vs a slow play?

You’d think if she’d made a set or two pair, or had TP on the flop, that as an aggressive player she would have led out on at least one street. Does she have some reason to think Hero is overly aggressive and will do the betting for her?

Maybe there is an argument now for checking since it feels so weird. And you may already have more than enough value for middle pair / middling kicker to check back and be satisfied. I still might bet something and see if she has a rare check-raise in her, but now there seems to be a stronger argument that you’re not getting called enough by worse.
 

grebe

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Yep… I just tend to assume that if a hand gets posted at all, the likelihood goes up 50% that it’s because the villain played absurdly then sucked out.
Yes, this is very much true....which also has the undesired effect of biasing advice. Which is bad. I try to post up hands where I win the hand, but did not play that well to mix it up.
 

Taghkanic

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I check river. Great runout I think...but it's just too thin for me personally. If we win, I think we got the most value we could hope for. If I missed a street, well, that's why I am a rec.

Agreeing that Hero has already gotten more value than one would expect from an average opponent… But a counter argument (vs this specific villain) might be that if Hero is not going to bet this safe-ish river, when would he ever bet? Besides rivering a T.

Almost every other card in the deck other than the other two off-suit 3s are arguably a potential problem, if one is seeing monsters under the bed. Even the two off-suit 9s.

Maybe a J to the extent it further lessens the likelihood of her holding top pair? A bet there might push her off a better T, though as played I kind of doubt she has QT/KT/AT.
 
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Poker Zombie

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Hero has played for 2 hours. What has your persona been? With the unexpected folds after your raise, I am thinking you look tight. The pause after your $75 bet when she usually is quick to call indicates a reluctance to follow you.

This is raising territory here.

Ask her what she has behind, and listen for stress in her reply. Confidence = check, stress = jam. That cards no longer matter - you are playing your opponent.
 

Schmendr1ck

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Hero has played for 2 hours. What has your persona been? With the unexpected folds after your raise, I am thinking you look tight. The pause after your $75 bet when she usually is quick to call indicates a reluctance to follow you.

This is raising territory here.

Ask her what she has behind, and listen for stress in her reply. Confidence = check, stress = jam. That cards no longer matter - you are playing your opponent.
I've gotten to showdown mostly with good hands, but I've been more aggressive than most of the table (except her, of course), and I've gotten caught with my hand in the cookie jar a couple of times, so she is very aware that I am capable of bluffing.
 

Legend5555

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I've gotten to showdown mostly with good hands, but I've been more aggressive than most of the table (except her, of course), and I've gotten caught with my hand in the cookie jar a couple of times, so she is very aware that I am capable of bluffing.
I don't put that much faith into how others have perceived me unless they make it obvious to me what they think. Most people just aren't paying enough attention.
 

JustinInMN

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River ($283): :jd::td::6h::2c::3h:
UTG checks. Hero?

As hero, I am going to check this back. I expect to win usually because I expect villian to usually have a missed draw. But there is just so little to collect for value here. It's really just weaker tens and 6x that make sense that we can hope we get called by, but that is way overwhelmed by missed draws, and also the off chance we've run into a better ten or a weak jack that she didn't play to expectation. Also :5d::4d: exactly got there, but would she really check that again?
 

grebe

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As hero, I am going to check this back. I expect to win usually because I expect villian to usually have a missed draw. But there is just so little to collect for value here. It's really just weaker tens and 6x that make sense that we can hope we get called by, but that is way overwhelmed by missed draws, and also the off chance we've run into a better ten or a weak jack that she didn't play to expectation. Also :5d::4d: exactly got there, but would she really check that again?
She could also have practically ANY flush draw weird straight draws that either: missed and gave up, or missed and planning to check/jam on us.
Lots of Jx, which she has shown not to be willing to fold
Better Ts than us....which she may or may not fold.

check. I don't even think this is a close check.
 

Schmendr1ck

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Ok, here we go. I'll keep results spoilered just in case.

I'm happy to see that there hasn't been a clear consensus on any street - even on the river, the group seems to lean toward a check back but a couple posters advocate for another value bet.

-------------------------
Venetian 1/3NL
Hero (BTN): about $450
Villain (UTG): about $350

Preflop: UTG straddles for $6. One MP limp to Hero on BTN with :th::9h:, who raises to $25. Blinds fold, UTG calls, MP limper folds. (Note: Hero is surprised that we're seeing a flop heads-up. That was a rarity at this table.)

Flop ($53): :jd::td::6h:
UTG checks. Hero bets $40, Villain calls quickly.

Turn ($133): :jd::td::6h::2c:
UTG checks. Hero bets $75. Villain thinks for about 15-20 seconds and calls.

River ($283): :jd::td::6h::2c::3h:
UTG checks.

Hero bets $120. Villain goes deep into the tank - it felt like about three minutes. She shook her head, put together a call, pump-faked a couple of times, looked at her cards over and over, and finally put the call in.

The table gasped in unison when I rolled over my hand - they thought I was super nutted. Villain looked and said, "What? A ten? You're good," and mucked.

My logic on the river: Given what I thought I knew about this specific villain, I didn't think she ever had top pair or better in this spot. I would have heard about that on the flop or turn. I knew that a river bet was extremely thin, but I also believed that she could convince herself I was on a missed draw enough to call with a lot of small pocket pairs.

This was very thin value against a very specific opponent, and something I would almost never do in most other situations. I posted the hand because I was concerned that it was TOO thin, and I wanted to get feedback mainly on this street.
 

grebe

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I think it's super thin, but you went with your gut and was rewarded. I think this is a great example of looking at the ranges of your opponent and deciding how light they are willing to call you.

Like I said earlier, if you arent getting value owned sometimes, you arent betting thin enough.

Well played, I say. Obviously squeezed every drop of value there was to be had here.
 

toothpic

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Any speculation to what villain had? Maybe a mid or low flush draw with a low pair (6, 2 or 3)? Would you expect villain to have played a NFD much more aggressively?
 

Taghkanic

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Hero bets $120. Villain goes deep into the tank - it felt like about three minutes. She shook her head, put together a call, pump-faked a couple of times, looked at her cards over and over, and finally put the call in.

The table gasped in unison when I rolled over my hand - they thought I was super nutted. Villain looked and said, "What? A ten? You're good," and mucked.

This is what I have been talking about.

This specific type of villain has serious trouble releasing either a pocket pair or flopped bottom pair, even when Hero has put money in on every street and their holding is at best third pair by the river.

Given the agonized call, I’d put her on stuff like 88, 77, 44, and 6x—especially 64/65/67 and A6/K6, and not even suited combos of those. The pause on the turn might also suggest hands that might have picked up some equity, but it’s hard to imagine ones that would call the river without having made a pair.

Pity she didn’t show.
 
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