How much would you pay for this high hand?

grandgnu

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Every 30 minutes the Seminole Hard Rock Tampa has a high hand jackpot that is awarded for $500. With 18 minutes remaining on a Saturday evening a player in my O8 cash game makes JJJJ2 and is on the board as the current high hand.

There are roughly 35 tables competing for this high hand (O8 tables must flop it to count, then there's limit and NL hold em tables plus a 5/5 PLO table)

How much would you pay to buy this hand or to take half the action on it? Realize that if it gets beat before the half-hour period is up (with 18 minutes left on it) then the hand is worthless and the money you gave to the person who had the high hand is theirs to keep.
 

jbutler

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Every 30 minutes the Seminole Hard Rock Tampa has a high hand jackpot that is awarded for $500. With 18 minutes remaining on a Saturday evening a player in my O8 cash game makes JJJJ2 and is on the board as the current high hand.

There are roughly 35 tables competing for this high hand (O8 tables must flop it to count, then there's limit and NL hold em tables plus a 5/5 PLO table)

How much would you pay to buy this hand or to take half the action on it? Realize that if it gets beat before the half-hour period is up (with 18 minutes left on it) then the hand is worthless and the money you gave to the person who had the high hand is theirs to keep.

i assume you mean what kind of odds am i willing to lay.

i do this all the time with idiots at parx, but i've never had to think too much about it because some moron always gives me even money and i just bet the max that they're willing to put up. at parx there are typically approximately the same number of NL tables (only NL games are eligible for the high hand) and the high hand gets paid every hour (during the times the promotion is active). i usually get three or four bets per session and they're almost always for the last ten minutes. i've never done the math, but i am way, way ahead in the long run with this bet obv.

with 18 minutes left to go on a half-hour jackpot, i have to feel you're still a favorite. maybe lay 1.2? i dunno. i'll be interested if someone has the intelligence and time enough to do the actual math.
 

grandgnu

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I wound up paying $100 for half his action. 2-3 minutes later JJJJT was announced and then shortly after that JJJJA was announced. I was right, however, that quad Jacks would hold up, it just wasn't the quad jacks I purchased, doh!
 

Ben

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I'm sure the casino regs around here could speak much better to how often it actually happens, but if you figure there will be about ~350 hands dealt in the room in those 18 minutes, what are the odds of someone beating quad jacks in 350 hands? That's equivalent to one marathon 12-hour session at one table.

I have no idea of the actual number, but instinctively I would say that's a pretty big long shot. I would snap-buy 50% for $100, or even $150. $175 I'd probably do as well. I think I'd pass for $200, but it still might not be a bad bet.
 

jbutler

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tried to post this earlier and somehow it went via PM to gnu instead of posting here.

p.s. gnu if you're trying to actually run this bet with people, the best way to guarantee your advantage is this.

propose the bet as late into the jackpot period as possible (people will usually jump if there are ten minutes left) at anytime the high hand is quad jacks or queens (i don't actually know what the relevant threshold is, but most people are so accustomed to seeing quad kings and aces that they'll typically take action against jacks or queens). someone at the table will take it at least a third of the time. do this regularly enough that people remember that you like this bet. always attempt to bet more than the person who takes it is willing to bet, but always agree to whatever sum they'll put up.

as people recognize that you like to make this side bet, they will begin to offer it to you when the high hand is low enough that they think they have an advantage. never take it if they're offering it with half or less of the jackpot period remaining unless their proposed bet is small (sub $10ish) and then take it 100% of the time to show that you're always on for this bet. if they propose the bet with less than half the jackpot period remaining, demand some ridiculous amount and when they decline say that you'll bet less, but you want action on the next three jackpots as well, your side being whatever hand is the high hand with the same amount of time to go in the next three jackpot periods.

more people will take this than you realize.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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I was playing at a home game last night (ten players), and everyone throws in $20 at the start for a high hand that ends at 12:00. At 11:50 we play 5 more hands to avoid tanking lol. Both cards must play for the high hand, but it doesn't need to go to the river. So if you have 92, and the flop comes up 999, you may want to ship it in to avoid having your kicker not play. Anyway, this guy hits Aces full of tens around 8:00, and it seems to be lasting. At like 11:32 he asked if I wanted to buy him out for $155. I snapped, and held. This seemed like an easy call, am I missing something here? 28 minutes to fade quads or a straight flush where both cards play, and at this point we were down to nine players. Btw, the guy who i bought out hit a one card straight flush on the second to last hand 9c9s on a 7810Jxssss board.
 

Payback

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I was playing at a home game last night (ten players), and everyone throws in $20 at the start for a high hand that ends at 12:00. At 11:50 we play 5 more hands to avoid tanking lol. Both cards must play for the high hand, but it doesn't need to go to the river. So if you have 92, and the flop comes up 999, you may want to ship it in to avoid having your kicker not play. Anyway, this guy hits Aces full of tens around 8:00, and it seems to be lasting. At like 11:32 he asked if I wanted to buy him out for $155. I snapped, and held. This seemed like an easy call, am I missing something here? 28 minutes to fade quads or a straight flush where both cards play, and at this point we were down to nine players. Btw, the guy who i bought out hit a one card straight flush on the second to last hand 9c9s on a 7810Jxssss board.

We played with a BBJ with a similar idea. Last time we did I bought it from the guy who lost with KKKQQ with a few hours to go for $75 for a $120 win. As I'm handing him the chips the board peels out AAAxx and someone loses with Aces full of his pocket deuces. I didn't even have it for 1 hand....
 

xt!

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if guys are selling high hands frequently you may be well advised to track winning hands somehow, maybe just take a note in your phone evry 30 minutes and run the math to find the 'average' winner.

btw, my gut answer as i was reading through this was that i would snap call on the deal you recieved... i havent really looked at numbers though
 

grandgnu

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if guys are selling high hands frequently you may be well advised to track winning hands somehow, maybe just take a note in your phone evry 30 minutes and run the math to find the 'average' winner.

btw, my gut answer as i was reading through this was that i would snap call on the deal you recieved... i havent really looked at numbers though

I've seen periods where it's full houses or lower quads, as well as periods where it's straight flushes and royals up the wazoo. Don't have enough data to determine the mean though.
 

courage

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Threadjack:

My friends Kimi and Timmy and I were at Horseshoe Cincy Saturday for their High Hand promotion, their first time playing there and Timmy's birthday weekend. He hit a rollover with 9 high straight flush for $1100 and later a $550 with quad sixes. Luckbox.
uploadfromtaptalk1429536691710.jpg
 

grandgnu

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Nice! I tried buying another high hand this weekend (quad Aces) but couldn't get the guy to sell me action (they held).
 
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