Tourney How late will this 1-day WSOP Circuit Event go? (3 Viewers)

[dmoney]

I’m considering playing WSOP Circuit event #6 at Turning Stone in a few weeks. It starts at 10 in the morning. But I’d like to have a sense of how long it might last if I happen to make a deep run. Anyone have experience or a good guess?

 

[dmoney]

@Taghkanic @PlayerADK ?

 

[doublebooyah85]

4am?

 

[Taghkanic]

I haven't played WSOP circuit events before, so I am not sure how many entries this particular event will draw.

If one had an idea of that number (based on last year’s event) you could guesstimate the length based on the total number of chips in play, and then dividing that total by each blind level.

People have posted formulas for that elsewhere on PCF... My recollection is that once you have less than 30 BB total on the table among all remaining players combined, the game is likely to end at that level.

 

[Taghkanic]

Found it! In 2023 there were 526 entries into this event.

526 x 20,000 chips = 10,520,000 chips

10,520,000 / 30 = 350,667

However, the big blind ante appears to continue through the end of the tournament (I think), making the BB effectively more like 300,000 at the 150K/300K level. So that is pretty close to the formula I mentioned (which I may not be remembering correctly).

If all that is right... 29 levels at 30 minutes each plus a 45-minute break plus four other 15-minute breaks = 15.5 hours of play time plus 1.75 hours of break = 17.25 hours.

That takes you to about 3:30 am, I believe.

Another rule of thumb I’ve seen is that it’s likely to end when the big blind + the small blind = 80% the size of the starting stack. That would result in a much shorter tourney here... 80% of the 20K starting stack is 16,000, which would result in the tourney ending more like around levels 17/18, or about 10-11 hours total. Sounds a bit quick to me.

 

[LeLe]

I will call the management and ask what time last year event end as a reference

 

[dmoney]

If one had an idea of that number (based on last year’s event)

526 in the same $400 1-day 6-max last year

Quick math:
526 entries @20k chips per
10.52M chips in play
Bb of 350k+ would be 30bbs in play

Structure sheet lists 29 levels w last at 150kbb

Including an extra two hours for breaks etc would be ~16.5 hours to play the listed structure. 3-4am seems like a very good guess. @doublebooyah85 looks to be right on!

 

[Taghkanic]

One thing my analysis didn’t take into account is that this is 6-max.

Not sure how that will affect the length of the tourney, but I would guess that it means more action overall, more re-entries, more early eliminations before the break, and more giant stacks after.

So maybe the number of players goes down faster in the first half, and take longer to bust in the second? (TBH I’ve never played a live 6-max tournament.)

 

[Taghkanic]

My general feeling is that if I’m still somehow in the tourney after 12 hours, I’m happy for it to last until dawn b/c every extra half-hour means I’m probably getting paid more. I’ll trade missing some other event the next day for a deep run the night before. Nice problem to have.

 

[dmoney]

One thing my analysis didn’t take into account is that this is 6-max.

I would also assume (maybe incorrectly) there are a lot of chops in 1-day tournies, so they are less likely to play out under normal contraints.

 

[upNdown]

I would also assume (maybe incorrectly) there are a lot of chops in 1-day tournies, so they are less likely to play out under normal contraints.

Isn’t everybody playing for that ring? I love chops, but when there’s a ring involved, I’m playing!

 

[dmoney]

Isn’t everybody playing for that ring? I love chops, but when there’s a ring involved, I’m playing!

Good point! Although as an amateur I might overvalue the “win” and ring and might be willing to take lesser money (2nd? 3rd?) if I would take the ring and be the published winner. The bragging rights might be worth it

 

[Zmasterben]

I would also assume (maybe incorrectly) there are a lot of chops in 1-day tournies, so they are less likely to play out under normal contraints.

Most major tournament circuits including the WSOP have "fair play" rules that would force some sort of play out.

The remaining players would chop around 95% of the money and then they would play a winner take all tournament with their current stacks for the rest of the money and the prize (bracelet, trophy, ring, etc.). The remaining players could hypothetically just do a shove-athon until someone had all of the chips but the TD would require an actual declared winner in the end. A player could also just to choose to walk away and get blinded out if they didn't want to participate due to being tired or uninterested in continuing.

I don't know how strict they are at Circuit events but I assume they would enforce this. I know Triton just had a few of this situation last week.