Can I get away from this hand?

fish72s

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This hand happened last week at the Choctaw casino in Oklahoma. This was part of a 10 day poker trip from Florida to Colorado. I may post some other hands later.
I am only about 20 mins into the session and don't have much info on the players except that the villain had recently re-raised 2 players and followed up the turn with the nut flush draw.
Stakes are $1/$2. I am hero with about $90 and I think most or all the table covers
5 or 6 players limp in and I check the BB with :9c::7c:.

Flop is :8h::th::jh:

Hero checks. Villain is in MP and bets $25 (maybe it was a raise of a UTG bet, $25 into $12 seems like alot.)
3 players call.
$25 to win $112 and $70 left behind.
Should hero fold, call or raise?
 

Mr Tree

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Three hearts on the flop and everyone seeing a massive bet for these limits = easy fold. Someone is building the pot with a flush
 

Gear

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Raise > fold >>> call, and if you're going to raise, shove.

Calling is awful. You'd be leaving the door open for the rest of the table to come along with their single high hearts. Another heart comes on the turn and you've thrown away $25.

Folding is very tight. With that many callers it's not impossible for someone to have flopped the flush, but if you take the initiative by repping the flush, weaker flushes might fold, as well as single-high-heart hands.

I'd shove here and hope no one has flopped a flush. If the Ah wants to draw, it'll cost him.

Edit: I misread the part about Hero checking the flop and everyone calling. In that case fold > raise >>> call.
 

onerand

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If you have a bunch of these small buy-ins to play with, a shove is fine to take a shot at a big stack. You should expect to win about a third of the time when you are not drawing dead.

But 4 players have shown interest, and people with small flush often like to see a safe turn. Tight players or those on limited funds should fold.
 

Mental Nomad

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Fold.

You are deciding after seeing three callers of a large bet into a small pot. Any of the four can have a flush draw or the flush. In addition, you have the low end of the straight, and these are cards on which others can sure flop better straight draws, if not a better straight. And I would not be surprised to see someone show JT for top two, with a draw to house.

Calling is abysmal. It's not a $25 call... it's your first call of three. Your $70 will be in the pot soon enough, without the benefit of shoving, which might make a weak draw fold. If you just can't lay it down, you should shove.

But I would not shove - shoving $70 at a $112 pot is not going to scare off a made flush or any strong flush draw; these people have thrown in $25 when the pot was $37 and $62 - they'll get lesser ratios after your shove of $70, taking the pot to $182. Any one of them will find calling $70 on a pot of $182 easier than $25 for $37 - never mind if more than one calls. You'll be lucky to drop one or two opponents.

I say fold... and if it shows down that your small-ended straight would have won, take a break to shake it off.
 

fish72s

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Interesting. I didn't expect this was so clear cut a fold. I guess I played this badly.
I almost folded. I was really worried about the flush. But its hard to flop a flush and I had just seen this guy earlier re-raise and follow up with a flush draw. Or maybe he is protecting a set or top two? (would this be a good bet in his position?)
I wasn't too worried about the callers although I suppose a baby flush is possible. I was a little worried about Q9 though. I have seen people flat call bets like this with hands as weak as a pair and the Kh. Plus I was getting such good odds.
I almost shoved but changed my mind to a call knowing I am almost always committed unless a heart, or 9 comes or the board pairs.

$137 in the pot. Turn is an offsuit 3.
I had intended to shove a blank but chickened out at the last second. I wanted to leave the option of a fold if there was alot of action behind me.

Villain leads out for $140 and everyone folds to me. I'm getting 3 to 1 and I basically made this decision on the flop.
I didn't think I could fold here even thinking he probably had the flush.
Can I fold here after making the bad call on the flop?
 
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Mr Tree

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Interesting. I didn't expect this was so clear cut a fold. I guess I played this badly.
I almost folded. I was really worried about the flush. But its hard to flop a flush and I had just seen this guy earlier re-raise and follow up with a flush draw. Or maybe he is protecting a set or top two? (would this be a good bet in his position?)
I wasn't too worried about the callers although I suppose a baby flush is possible. I was a little worried about Q9 though. I have seen people flat call bets like this with hands as weak as a pair and the Kh. Plus I was getting such good odds.
I almost shoved but changed my mind to a call knowing I am almost always committed unless a heart, or 9 comes or the board pairs.

$137 in the pot. Turn is an offsuit 3.
I had intended to shove a blank but chickened out at the last second. I wanted to leave the option of a fold if there was alot of action behind me.

Villain leads out for $140 and everyone folds to me. I'm getting 4 to 1 and I basically made this decision on the flop.
I didn't think I could fold here even thinking he probably had the flush.
Can I fold here after making the bad call on the flop?

I'm not as worried about a flush from ONE player. But four all willing to see a significant raise with a flush possible flop? Run. Especially in a lower limit game like this. Players tend to play any two sooooted cards looking for flushes.
 

SixSpeedFury

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That flop is all kinds of wet. Should've stabbed at the flop instead of checking. Four callers should have sounded alarms. Fold.
 

DrStrange

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First thing - it isn't as obvious a fold if the title of the thread isn't "can I get away from this hand?"

Table reads would be nice, even 20 minutes into the session Hero might have some idea if this is an "old man, coffee" table or the "loony-toon" table. (Also a bad beat jackpot would make a difference on this flop.)

The key question is how can four people justify betting / calling with this flop? If many people at the table can call $25 with TP/GK, then hero can go to war. That is an unlikely request at a typical casino 1-2 game. I think Hero is frequently behind (drawing almost dead) and when not behind fading a heart draw, set or combo draw. The naked :qh: is worth almost as much equity as Hero's made hand.

I rate the flop play as fold >>>> call > shove (call is better than shove because Hero is folding to a scare card on the turn - a heart, nine or paired board is something like 40% of the unknown cards. A call-shove safe turns is a better line than shoving the flop) Hero is in a one-sided proposition, when behind he is dead and when Hero is ahead he is dodging a lot of bullets.

As played: Hero is risking $63 to win $137 + $63 after the turn action by villain, he needs 24% equity to properly call. If hero is ahead, lets give him 80% equity. If Hero is behind he has no equity. So Hero needs to find villain betting without flush 28% of the time. Note that I said betting without a flush rather than bluffing, villain could easily have a set or TP + nut flush draw and think his hand is best. This is a close decision that would go better with villain reads. Knowing nothing, I think it is a sigh/fold. I need to know villain can be aggressive without the "nuts" before I would call here.

I do not suggest Hero top off. Hero has no idea how he rates vs the table skill wise. Hero has no reads. Play a short stack strategy, learn the table for cheap. (by this I mean hero is folding 85%+, raising most the remaining hands and shoving anytime he has top pair or gets a dry flop.) Watch and learn - maybe hero should be buying in deeper maybe changing tables. $60 is a perfectly fine stack size to start with until the situation is clear. If Hero is not comfortable at the table, then absolutely do not buy in 100BB deep. Short stacked TAG is almost unexploitable by better players even if the rake will eat your lunch.

DrStrange
 

fish72s

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Should I really be that worried about flushes from the 3 flat calls? I can see some logic to flatting with a low flush or maybe Q9 and waiting for a blank turn card. But shouldn't any flush normally raise in that spot knowing another heart kills their hand (or their action if they have the nut flush). If any one of them had raised it is an insta-fold for me.
I thought I was way ahead of the callers range and thought their money just increased my odds.
I was worried about the original villain but I thought my hand was too strong to fold even though there was a pretty decent chance I was drawing dead. It would have been easier to fold on the flop if I would have had another $200 behind. I can't call off $175 knowing I could be dead.

Villain showed :6h::3h: of course.
Anyway, thanks for the advice. I will know better next time.
 

DrStrange

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Hero should fear all of the hands, because a) some caller might well flat with the nut flush and b) collectively they could easily have a massive number of outs - Hero is assuming that no one has the flush.

So when hero isn't drawing dead he is facing a set vs :ah:x vs :qh:x for example Hero might not even have 25% equity holding the made straight AND knowing no one has the made flush.
That is why we want to know how many players could call $25 with :kc: :jc: because without those people in the hand, hero has no reason to take the risk.

DrStrange
 

Mental Nomad

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Do yourself a huge educational favor. Grab a deck of cards and a pad. You're going to deal ten hands.

First, lay out your :9c::7c: and teh :8h::th::jh: flop.

Then shuffle the remainder and deal out four pairs of hole cards, face-up; these are for the villain and the three callers.

Look at those hole cards... are there any that could not possibly have called, pre-flop? Be honest. You can leave any two suited, if you want, but ten-four off has to go. Discard.

Then ask, are there any that could not possibly have called $25 on that flop? Discard those, too.

Then deal out replacements. Check for rejects again. Do this until you have four possible holdings.

This is your first random deal to simulate your hand. Are you already beat by a flush or a better straight? (Doesn't matter if it's the villain or not.) If you are, add one to the "lose" column on your pad. Then deal the turn and river cards.... are you beat now? If not, chalk up a "win" column.

Then take all the discards, and the four sets of hole cards, turn, and river, and shuffle them (not yours or the flop),

Repeat. Do this until you've done ten rounds.

I suspect you will be shocked at how few winners you have, and how often you are either beaten on the flop or out-drawn. Sure, they fold on the flop this time, but with three callers, you'll get out-drawn an awful lot, never mind the bettor.

This is well worth doing to make you a better player. Most of us are seeing two hands a lot - ours and the winner's. We rarely see five hands per deal. It's worth it.

 

K-A

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Here Raise >> fold >>>>> call
"call" is bad play in this action because 70% rest of desk is not good for you
choose "raise " for take Max FE with dead money.
 
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