Call Shove w/QQ in 2nd out of 6th in Tournament (2 Viewers)

[TheOffalo]

I’m sure this is just an “everyone did the right thing and I just got the short end of the straw” thing, so I guess I’m just looking to see what other people would have done in my situation:

MTT on PokerStars, final 6, all in the money but big pay jump above 3rd. I’m 2nd in chipstack, ~28k, blinds 500/1000. I had QQ UTG and raise to 4k, all fold except BTN who had ~20k and just called.

Flop was 9TJ all diamonds, and I had Qd for open-ended straight, flush, and straight flush draw, and the over-pair. I bet half the pot ~5k, BTN raises all-in for ~16k, and I call.

BTN had Ace-rag w/Ad. I guess he took a chance calling my raise preflop and ended up w/nut flush draw. Still I was ahead through the turn (not a diamond) until the other red Ace popped up on the river.

I dropped to 6th w/6k left but fought my way to finish in 4th, not terrible but I swear I’ve lost almost all coin flips and even when I’ve been 80/20 (or higher) ahead for the last 3-4 months that I just expect the other player to suck out by the river now. Sad, I know.

So I’m thinking I would have played it the same way preflop even if the villain’s cards were face up, but I dunno about post-flop…

 

[Samuel]

I think just bad luck? If I'm calculating correctly, he only had 9 cards that he could win with (three Aces and the 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, or 2 of diamonds) - any other card would have been a win for you (any K, Q, J, T, 9, 8, and non diamond 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 - 37 cards?)...

ETA - oops that was for the river, sorry - but I think you were still pretty far ahead post flop?

 

[TheOffalo]

I think just bad luck? If I'm calculating correctly, he only had 9 cards that he could win with (three Aces and the 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, or 2 of diamonds) - any other card would have been a win for you (any K, Q, J, T, 9, 8, and non diamond 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 - 37 cards?)...

Thanks I knew I was way ahead but that really helps put it in perspective. Just unlucky, but I should take those odds any day.

 

[HaRDHouSeiNC]

I think he’s got about 8 cards twice so same odds as if you’re up against an open end draw

Just unlucky the way it played out you couldn’t shove at any point to make him fold pre

 

[TheOffalo]

I think he’s got about 8 cards twice so same odds as if you’re up against an open end draw

Just unlucky the way it played out you couldn’t shove at any point to make him fold pre

I think only a preflop shove might have gotten a fold from Ace-rag, but with 28 BB I wouldn’t shove w/QQ. But you’re right, after that w/nut flush draw and stack relative to pot he’s either calling an all-in or shoving himself (as he did).

 

[JustinInMN]

Yeah, as you said in the OP, this is just a bad beat. And not even that bad of one. (In terms of how much equity villain had on the flop.) It's pretty hard to fold the in this spot once villain flops the flush draw. You got the money in good, villain had a good price to draw.

But that was a spewey call pre on Villain's part.

 

[grebe]

This is a bad beat story. Of course you played correct....it's only 20 big blinds, you got it in good and he sucked out. The only way to misplay QQ here is to open call or fold.

 

[power13]

Yep just bad luck. That was a big raise UTG and a very loose call by him. But even giving him a very tight call range (88-QQ, AJs-AQs, KQs, AQo-AKo, KQo) and assuming he's shoving with top pair+ and NFD/2nd NFD, you are still 60/40 ahead. With a much wider range it's probably about the same equity as he has a lot more NFD but also more straights and two pair hands that may also shove this board.

Anyway nothing you can do here, he made a bad call and you got it in good even if his range was much stronger!

 

[TheOffalo]

Thanks all for the feedback/confirmation. If we flip it around and pretend we’re the villain, would you have shoved post flop w/the nut flush draw, or just flatted my half pot bet?

I’m probably a more cautious player so I might have just flatted if I were the villain since I didn’t have it yet, but the turn not being a diamond might mean I might have to fold to a shove on the turn (though probably not).

 

[Moxie Mike]

Thanks all for the feedback/confirmation. If we flip it around and pretend we’re the villain, would you have shoved post flop w/the nut flush draw, or just flatted my half pot bet?

I’m probably a more cautious player so I might have just flatted if I were the villain since I didn’t have it yet, but the turn not being a diamond might mean I might have to fold to a shove on the turn (though probably not).

Well the Villain should have folded pre. Calling 20% of your stack off from a huge UTG raise while holding Ace-rag unsuited is just bad poker.

Ignoring that, the case for jamming the flop is the fact that Villain really doesn't have a plan if the turn bricks. Chances are he'll be facing a bet for the rest of his chips anyhow.

You also didn't say what his kicker was. If was a true rag (like a 4 or a 5) then your equity on the flop was 66%. But if he held an 8, the equity split drops to ~55/45. Almost a flip.

So jamming in that spot, while putting Villain's tournament at risk is better than calling off 1/3 of his stack just to peel the turn. After the turn blanks, Villain's equity drops to 20% and it would be difficult to call the rest off.

 

[TheOffalo]

Thanks Mike. I agree with your assessment. I honestly don’t remember exactly what the kicker was, but it wasn’t a face card (since that wouldn’t be a rag) and didn’t pair the board or give him an open ended straight draw (is my fuzzy recollection), so I’d say true rag.

As I’m walking myself through this I believe it was a 6 or 7 because I remember thinking he couldn’t even make a baby straight using both cards if the flop had been all low cards.

 

[power13]

Well the Villain should have folded pre. Calling 20% of your stack off from a huge UTG raise while holding Ace-rag unsuited is just bad poker.

Ignoring that, the case for jamming the flop is the fact that Villain really doesn't have a plan if the turn bricks. Chances are he'll be facing a bet for the rest of his chips anyhow.

You also didn't say what his kicker was. If was a true rag (like a 4 or a 5) then your equity on the flop was 66%. But if he held an 8, the equity split drops to ~55/45. Almost a flip.

So jamming in that spot, while putting Villain's tournament at risk is better than calling off 1/3 of his stack just to peel the turn. After the turn blanks, Villain's equity drops to 20% and it would be difficult to call the rest off.

Agree - from villain's perspective I would expect jams from flush draws and top pair + up to straights, calls from made flushes and pair + flush draw...

 

[TheOffalo]

Well the Villain should have folded pre. Calling 20% of your stack off from a huge UTG raise while holding Ace-rag unsuited is just bad poker.

Was my raise too big pre? I went 4x since I was UTG w/5 ppl to act, I didn’t necessarily want to go multi-way to the flop.

 

[power13]

Don't know all the stack depths other than villain but I imagine at this stage of the tournament there are not that many deep stacks and you're not scared of a re-shove from shorter stacks. You also don't want to be unbalanced with your sizing across your range and would like to see flops with weaker hands for cheaper. The shortest stacks should be in shove or fold mode and usually multi-way pots are less frequent at this stage of a tournament. In general you shouldn't want to put yourself in a situation where you are giving sizing tells, and also shouldn't want to be in a position where you are playing for stacks on every flop you see when you are a larger stack. All of this speaks to a smaller opening size. It's OK to size up a little from EP but I think 2.5x should be fine.

In this situation, the call by villain was terrible, but you could have gone to the flop with a lower SPR and probably (?) wouldn't have been dealing with a shove on the flop. The eventual outcome may not have changed (really tough to fold even to a bigger shove on that flop, and if you cbet the turn and he shoved, you're probably in a similar situation to the flop). Ah on the river, not sure what villain would have done but possible he would have checked back.

Anyway, not saying the result would have been way different with a smaller open, but definitely would recommend a smaller sizing there. Feels like it would have just been a cooler either way though.

 

[TheOffalo]

Stacks were roughly 50k, 28k, 23k, 20k, 12k, 8k IIRC (which I may not be).

Some of the remaining players are loose callers (as demonstrated) so that’s part of why I went 4x. Thanks for the detailed assessment. Will digest and incorporate!

 

[grebe]

Thanks all for the feedback/confirmation. If we flip it around and pretend we’re the villain, would you have shoved post flop w/the nut flush draw, or just flatted my half pot bet?

I’m probably a more cautious player so I might have just flatted if I were the villain since I didn’t have it yet, but the turn not being a diamond might mean I might have to fold to a shove on the turn (though probably not).

It depends on my read on you. If you have been raising a bunch, I would shove on you with any ace. If you had been playing cautiously, I would fold pre. Only way I would have called here is if I were the big blind.

 

[TheOffalo]

It depends on my read on you. If you have been raising a bunch, I would shove on you with any ace. If you had been playing cautiously, I would fold pre. Only way I would have called here is if I were the big blind.

I’d like to think my image is pretty TAG. I did have one previous hand w/the villain in this tournament where I also got it in good and he sucked out on me for a decent chunk of my stack. So that should reinforce I’m not raising loose but maybe he also thought he’s been getting lucky against me.

 

[grebe]

I’d like to think my image is pretty TAG. I did have one previous hand w/the villain in this tournament where I also got it in good and he sucked out on me for a decent chunk of my stack. So that should reinforce I’m not raising loose but maybe he also thought he’s been getting lucky against me.

Then fold pre is the correct play for V1, but he would not be out of line to shove here. Keep in mind, we are playing 20 big blinds, so any ace goes up in value, while suited connectors and "speculative" hands start losing value as we get shallow. Calling is awful. If you were in later position and had a wider range, the shove is the play. From a TAG UTG, I fold.

There is a great book that talks about how to play different stack sizes for tournaments called "Short Stack Ninja". If you play a lot of tournaments, you are lacking knowledge on the field if you don't know how to play different stack sizes. I watched the video version, then immediately invested in the book. It was like $10 from amazon and you can read it in a day. Completely useless in cash games, but invaluable for tournaments.

 

[TheOffalo]

Then fold pre is the correct play for V1, but he would not be out of line to shove here. Keep in mind, we are playing 20 big blinds, so any ace goes up in value, while suited connectors and "speculative" hands start losing value as we get shallow. Calling is awful. If you were in later position and had a wider range, the shove is the play. From a TAG UTG, I fold.

To be totally results oriented for a minute, I guess I wish he played like you described and folded to my TAG/UTG raise preflop, even though I'd be losing value. But I shouldn't be results oriented, and I'm more than okay with getting it in good, extracting maximum value, and just shaking my head and moving on from the cooler...

Thanks for the book rec! I do play a lot of tournaments, and I think I have a decent handle on short stack shove/fold strategy, but yeah I could definitely brush up on how to play better with 20-25 BB. Will check it out!

 

[JustinInMN]

Thanks all for the feedback/confirmation. If we flip it around and pretend we’re the villain, would you have shoved post flop w/the nut flush draw, or just flatted my half pot bet?

I’m probably a more cautious player so I might have just flatted if I were the villain since I didn’t have it yet, but the turn not being a diamond might mean I might have to fold to a shove on the turn (though probably not).

Good question. For sure I would not be calling 4x raises with bad Axo hands preflop.

On the flop, I certainly could see shoving the nut flush draw. Flatting is okay too, but probably going to lead to calling it off on the turn anyway given how big the pot will be.

The is never drawing dead and usually has 12 outs unless the opponent has 2 pair plus. So the equity from improving plus fold equity usually makes the shove okay.

Now granted this board is too coordinated to expect much fold equity. Maybe AK and underpairs with no diamonds can still fold.

ButI think the shove is still okay.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Was my raise too big pre? I went 4x since I was UTG w/5 ppl to act, I didn’t necessarily want to go multi-way to the flop.

I'm probably the wrong person to ask. Most modern tournament strategy suggests smaller bets and raises while I personally prefer larger bet sizing. As the blinds get huge you have to consider your bet sizing in terms of percentages of your stack and how all this affects SPRs. In this instance, you had 26 BBs and put in a 4BB open. If thinning the field while also extracting value is the goal, 4x is way too much. You can accomplish the same thing with a 2.5-3x raise at that stage of the tournament. Think of it this way: the lower the number of BBs on the table, the more valuable they are individually.

This particular hand may have played out the same way given the donktastic villain play. But in general, smaller bet sizing in spots like this pre are better.

 

[JustinInMN]

Was my raise too big pre? I went 4x since I was UTG w/5 ppl to act, I didn’t necessarily want to go multi-way to the flop.

I would say in general, yes, 4x is pretty big especially this deep in a tournament, I would generally go for about 2.5x-3x.

However, in context of this game where villains are calling with bad Axo at that sizing, it's a good play.

What you wanted to happen is for villain to flop his kicker on a weak board and go with it. Instead, the deck helped villain enough on the flop to go with it.

 

[BPTDirector]

One thing everyone has not said but you alluded to in one of your posts was that villain had gotten lucky on you earlier for a decent chunk of your stack. I have a rule that I would mark that guy as ‘Mr. Lucky’ and my rule is never play big pots on that particular night with Mr. Lucky. All other observations have been pretty good, but it’s been my experience that when Lady Luck chooses a partner for the night it’s very hard to beat them.