Aces, middle position. Should be easy? (3 Viewers)

[DrStrange]

Playing 1-2 live, seven handed. Very early in the session, players are still coming in. The first few orbits have been brutal (or wonderful depending on who you are). Two massive winners, five sad sack suckers. The pump is primed for an explosive night since the players coming later are the action players.

Cast of characters:

UTG+1 is The Cougar playing $600. Hyper loose, passive, tricky trappy. Almost always slow plays one street. Bets draws or medium strength hands but goes for a tricky passive line with bigger hands - modest bets mostly, rarely big semi bluffs. A huge station in many ways - not for giant bets but smaller bets get called down very light. The Cougar is playing on his opening $60 buy in and is tearing through the field. Lucky him!

Hero is MP playing $550. Judging by the first 40 minutes of the game, Hero is a Wild Man LAG - playing half his hands, often for a raise. Though when Hero has had to show (and he has shown a lot), mostly everything has been top 10% hands or lucky flops with speculative hands. Hero is also on his first $60 buy in. Lucky him.

The Button is an irregular who plays maybe two or three times a year. He starts out playing reasonable (not good though) poker but as he drinks he becomes wildly unpredictable. Is playing $150 on $360. Unlucky him! Still sober working on his first drink.

The hand:

UTG folds. The Cougar limps for $2. Action on Hero holding . Hero makes it $7 to go - the standard raise for now.

One fold to the button who calls. SB and BB fold. The Cougar calls. Three way action, $24 in the pot.

Flop is < >

Cougar checks. Action on Hero. Bet or check? If betting how much?

DrStrange

 

[acl1904]

Flush and gut shot draws, I'd make it $18-$20.

 

[detroitdad]

Flush and gut shot draws, I'd make it $18-$20.

What I was thinking

 

[bergs]

Bet $40 on flop and $150 on any turn if called in at least 1 spot.

 

[DrStrange]

Bergs, that is quite an over bet - $40 into $24 and then $150 into $104. It is safe, but there are a lot of weak hand going to fold to bets that big which might play for smaller amounts.

Are you targeting the $150 stack or the $600 stack?

What kinds of ranges do you think will call those bets?

 

[HanShot1st]

Consider this, you have top set. There is a flush draw and a straight draw on the board. You run the risk of losing control of this hand on the turn. Win this hand now with the proper bet. Don't let it go farther. Yes you could break them if you pair the board, but do you want to take that chance and let one of them catch their card? If they are going to draw, they will have to pay for it.

It really depends on how good you feel you are running and how much risk you are willing to take, I would make a pot sized bet, and see how they react. But you are going to have to be ready to walk away from the hand if they make their straight or flush, and that's not always going to be easy with a set of Aces. My suggestion, win the hand here while you are ahead. If you let them catch a card, there;s not much you can do.

 

[Trihonda]

Flush and gut shot draws, I'd make it $18-$20.

+2

 

[Chicken Rob]

Confused that $7 is a standard raise after a caller.

Bet $20 on the flop. I don't know who you scare away that you can hope to win any real money from that would call less and fold $20.

 

[DrStrange]

The standard raise evolves as the night progresses. By midnight, someone will be raising to $25 and getting four callers. But not now. Few players are making any sorts of value decisions about how many limpers and potential dead money in the pot.

Hero would love to get the preflop pot bigger and lower the SPR. But even $7 ran off the blinds - in part because the losers are shell shocked at how fast they have lost $200 each.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I like $16-20 here, as others said there are a few draws to be concerned about. These can either screw us, or they can kill our action if someone else has Ax. No need to play this fancy, start pumping the pot now.

 

[DrStrange]

There is quite a range between $16 and $40 facing a $24 pot. Also Hero has to decide about who to target - the $150 stack or the $600 ($550) stack.

 

[moojersey]

Bet $18, see if we get any action, then re-evaluate OTT.

Hero has a HUGE value hand. We want to bet, but betting too big on flop broadcasts our hand and may scare away hands we want value from.

J, 10 to A,10 types of hands. All Broadway combos will probably peel at least 1 bet.

Plan for this hand is to get it all in good with the big stack. Hopefully...

He's not putting it all in with 2,5o so hopefully he has something decent and improves, but doesn't beat us.

Planning ahead depending on the turn card, we will probably want to re-raise / check raise safe'ish turns to build a bigger pot.

 

[bergs]

Bergs, that is quite an over bet - $40 into $24 and then $150 into $104. It is safe, but there are a lot of weak hand going to fold to bets that big which might play for smaller amounts.

Are you targeting the $150 stack or the $600 stack?

What kinds of ranges do you think will call those bets?

Casino, I bet $20 all day. With your wild man image from OP and how your games typically run, I'm going for gold right here. I'm not looking for safe, I'm trying to get gutter and flush draws to call and bomb them every step of the way.

But yeah, standard here is like 20-25 on flop and 60-80 on non heart turn.

 

[DrStrange]

*** Still easy? ***

Hero bets $18. Button folds. The Cougar calls.

Heads up, $60 in the pot. Effective stacks are $525. Hero holds

Turn is < >

Cougar checks. Action on Hero, bet or check? If betting, how much?

DrStrange

 

[thorwilliam]

*** Still easy? ***

Hero bets $18. Button folds. The Cougar calls.

Heads up, $60 in the pot. Effective stacks are $525. Hero holds

Turn is < >

Cougar checks. Action on Hero, bet or check? If betting, how much?

DrStrange

Not the best possible turn, but we need to keep betting. I would bet around $50.

 

[MegaTon44]

My read would be that Cougar is flush drawing. If the gutter straight just connected, checking the turn would appear to be a big misstep versus a flush draw. Unless Cougar is holding a monster like KQhh, just seems too risky to allow Hero to check behind and see another card.

Even if behind, there's still redraw opportunity. Bet the pot and make him earn it.

 

[detroitdad]

I probably bet 50 for the reasons already stated

 

[Shaggy]

I probably bet 50 for the reasons already stated

+1

 

[DrStrange]

*** Yes, easy! ***

Ok, so Hero takes your advice and bets $50. The Cougar check-raises to $125.

Action on hero. Fold, call or raise? If raising how much?

Heads up $235 in the pot, with Hero owing a $75 bet. Effective stacks are $400 if Hero makes the call. Hero holds for top set.

DrStrange

 

[MegaTon44]

Is there any fold equity in this situation if Hero ponders a jam?

 

[bentax1978]

Is there any fold equity in this situation if Hero ponders a jam?

If I'm not mistaken, Hero is only behind one hand on the turn (KQ), and KQ certainly isn't folding to a jam. Against any other hand, we'd want a call of our all in-jam.

 

[DrStrange]

I agree. No chance villain folds the nuts, even holding no blockers to a free rolling or

Villain likely does call with the upper crust of his other range. Let's note villain isn't on the runner-runner club draw + top pair as Hero holds the

Please be mindful of the villain read:
UTG+1 is The Cougar playing $600. Hyper loose, passive, tricky trappy. Almost always slow plays one street. Bets draws or medium strength hands but goes for a tricky passive line with bigger hands - modest bets mostly, rarely big semi bluffs. A huge station in many ways - not for giant bets but smaller bets get called down very light. The Cougar is playing on his opening $60 buy in and is tearing through the field. Lucky him!

 

[MegaTon44]

If I'm not mistaken, Hero is only behind one hand on the turn (KQ), and KQ certainly isn't folding to a jam. Against any other hand, we'd want a call of our all in-jam.

Agreed. Poor choice of wording. Just trying to understand the number of hands in Villain's range that would warrant that kind of bet. The Villain read seems pretty telling.

Considering the very limited range that beats Hero, I would probably have to shove. KQ is an obvious snap call from Villain (and a very likely hand based on the range and read), but Hero still has a 10 outer on the redraw and dominates all other hands.

 

[bergs]

Feels like set over set to me. Reraise jam.

 

[detroitdad]

I would probably have to shove

Feels like set over set to me. Reraise jam.

I concur.

 

[acl1904]

Bet $50 as others have mentioned. We might see villain re-raise, but we ain't going anywhere. If villain hit his gut shot, that's the way cards go sometimes.

 

[bentax1978]

Bet $50 as others have mentioned. We might see villain re-raise, but we ain't going anywhere. If villain hit his gut shot, that's the way cards go sometimes.

Villain did re-raise, to $125 total.

Now the question is, did he do with with Broadway or a lesser set (or something else)? And of course the real question is, what do we do now?

 

[detroitdad]

what do we do now?

I concur.

Reraise jam.

I would probably have to shove

 

[bentax1978]

@detroitdad

I was just letting @acl1904 that the current question being discussed is "what do we do now?" (after the check-raise on the turn)

 

[acl1904]

Villain did re-raise, to $125 total.

Now the question is, did he do with with Broadway or a lesser set (or something else)? And of course the real question is, what do we do now?

I must have missed that read. We have to call. Villain representing his straight.