A sizing threshold for folding a set on a flush completing turn (1 Viewer)

[ngmcs8203]

Here is the setup.

We check. When he bets what is the maximum bet size that you’re calling here? Let’s assume he is playing a pretty standard 27 VPIP, 20 PFR, 11% 3bet and an aggression factor of around 2.

We are 110bb effective playing 25NL. This is on Coin. There is a 45k BBJ

 

[DirtyTIVA]

Short answer almost any, but what are stack sizes? Hero has underrepped his hand from the BB. Hero could also have any 2 pairs or pair plus flush draw after flop check raise. Depending on stakes and stack sizes I could make an argument for check jamming the turn no matter what villain bets. You get fold equity and 10 outs on the river regardless.

 

[ngmcs8203]

Short answer almost any, but what are stack sizes? Hero has underrepped his hand from the BB. Hero could also have any 2 pairs or pair plus flush draw after flop check raise. Depending on stakes and stack sizes I could make an argument for check jamming the turn no matter what villain bets. You get fold equity and 10 outs on the river regardless.

Thanks added. 110bb 25NL.

 

[ngmcs8203]

Short answer almost any, but what are stack sizes? Hero has underrepped his hand from the BB. Hero could also have any 2 pairs or pair plus flush draw after flop check raise. Depending on stakes and stack sizes I could make an argument for check jamming the turn no matter what villain bets. You get fold equity and 10 outs on the river regardless.

Also, there is a BBJ

 

[DirtyTIVA]

I think if pot after turn is 19BB and SPR is 5-6 you’re not folding to any reasonable bet by villain 0.3-1x pot. If V overbets turn for 2x pot he’s not doing it with the Ad which is why I think a check jam by you in response would have significant fold equity even against Kd.

If V overjams for some reason it would make a laydown easier as Hero no longer has any fold equity and is left with only 10 outs.

 

[ngmcs8203]

I think if pot after turn is 19BB and SPR is 5-6 you’re not folding to any reasonable bet by villain 0.3-1x pot. If V overbets turn for 2x pot he’s not doing it with the Ad which is why I think a check jam by you in response would have significant fold equity even against Kd.

If V overjams for some reason it would make a laydown easier as Hero no longer has any fold equity and is left with only 10 outs.

This was my thinking too. I like the x/j line if he overbets while there is still some FE left. I was actually thinking that if he went small enough I could flat doing that on the river but there is a chance he checks behind with a weaker flush than the Ad one and then I end up losing anyway. Flat anything under pot on the turn?

 

[Eriks]

Fold pre

 

[Marc Hedrick]

Flatting any reasonable size on the turn hoping to boat on the river or get to showdown.

Check/jamming turn makes absolutely zero sense to me. I get that he's 'not betting big with the Ad'....unless he is. I don't think big bet is unreasonable with the nuts here in villain's spot after hero check raises flop. Obviously hero has something decent.

Hero has enough showdown value to make punting a stack like that horrible, IMO.

 

[ngmcs8203]

Flatting any reasonable size on the turn hoping to boat on the river or get to showdown.

Check/jamming turn makes absolutely zero sense to me. I get that he's 'not betting big with the Ad'....unless he is. I don't think big bet is unreasonable with the nuts here in villain's spot after hero check raises flop. Obviously hero has something decent.

Hero has enough showdown value to make punting a stack like that horrible, IMO.

I think this is purely exploitive. From a GTO perspective, he is very rarely (2.5%) going over a pot-sized bet and it's nearly all nutted flushes. He is actually supposed to check this turn 78% of the time. The solver only likes a x/r on this board if he goes small and I have a straight flush or have AdXx

However, I think there's a significant likelihood that a portion of the 25NL population will bet/fold non-nutted flushes, two pair, sets, straights, etc. to uber aggression. I'd have to count the combos but it might be closer than what the solver thinks since his range can be wildly different from what the solver expects.

 

[DirtyTIVA]

So what was the outcome of the actual hand?

My strategy at 5/10 and higher has always been “when in doubt, raise”

Low stakes players never fold anyway.

 

[ngmcs8203]

So what was the outcome of the actual hand?

My strategy at 5/10 and higher has always been “when in doubt, raise”

Low stakes players never fold anyway.

Spoiler: Outcome of the hand

 

[ngmcs8203]

Spoiler: Another player from the table took this screenshot

 

[DirtyTIVA]

Also, there is a BBJ

What’s an online 25NL BBJ worth anyway?

 

[krafticus]

What’s an online 25NL BBJ worth anyway?

Looks like 11,500BB….

 

[ngmcs8203]

Looks like 11,500BB….

Yep. The total BBJ was at around 46,000 and since we were playing 25NL we only got 5,800. I got about 2,875.

 

[DirtyTIVA]

Yep. The total BBJ was at around 46,000 and since we were playing 25NL we only got 5,800. I got about 2,875.

Time to buy some new chips!

 

[ngmcs8203]

Time to buy some new chips!

Ammo for 2/5 and then chips once we get some more space to host.

 

[BarrieJ3]

i have legit question. Idk nothing bout online and all that jazz. Is this a .25 game where everyone has $20-30 in?

 

[ngmcs8203]

i have legit question. Idk nothing bout online and all that jazz. Is this a .25 game where everyone has $20-30 in?

Yep. It's .10/.25 blinds with a $25 buyin. I'd say the regs at the 25NL-100NL stakes are solid enough to have good winrates up to about $2/5 live. Some would argue that the winning regs in a 100NL pool are strong enough to win in live $5/10 games too.

 

[BarrieJ3]

Yep. It's .10/.25 blinds with a $25 buyin. I'd say the regs at the 25NL-100NL stakes are solid enough to have good winrates up to about $2/5 live. Some would argue that the winning regs in a 100NL pool are strong enough to win in live $5/10 games too.

Totally not being a dick here, new to all this.

So you guys are practicing for $25 basically, and have like this social agreement type thing where you're going to play your own personal meta and try really hard and not let the the actual $ value come into consideration? This is very common too yeah? Like it's buying in for 100 BBs, and tons of people play .10/.25.

I'm not quite sure what's confusing me so much. I guess I'm just surprised that people are truly capable of playing 100% in terms of big blind with no focus/care on the $. That's all y'all poker players too, that's how you think huh? It's really interesting, I would 1,000% never be able to.

 

[ngmcs8203]

Totally not being a dick here, new to all this.

So you guys are practicing for $25 basically, and have like this social agreement type thing where you're going to play your own personal meta and try really hard and not let the the actual $ value come into consideration? This is very common too yeah? Like it's buying in for 100 BBs, and tons of people play .10/.25.

I'm not quite sure what's confusing me so much. I guess I'm just surprised that people are truly capable of playing 100% in terms of big blind with no focus/care on the $. That's all y'all poker players too, that's how you think huh? It's really interesting, I would 1,000% never be able to.

Yep. You just flip it into BB and treat it as such. I never see the $ value whether I am sitting at 25NL or 200NL. The monetary value is nowhere as valuable as the reps I get. In a 2hr session I'll see 600hands and can work on various aspects of my game. Currently focused on thin value river opportunities and ways to improve my red line. Over 14k hands my winrate on the river is nearing 68% and I'd love to get it down to about 60-62% if I can. Just a sign that I am not betting thinly enough on the river.

Working this out online at 25NL gives me competition that is closer to what I would see at live 1/3 to 2/5 games while wagering less and getting the volume to burn the lines into my head.

 

[Marc Hedrick]

Totally not being a dick here, new to all this.

So you guys are practicing for $25 basically, and have like this social agreement type thing where you're going to play your own personal meta and try really hard and not let the the actual $ value come into consideration? This is very common too yeah? Like it's buying in for 100 BBs, and tons of people play .10/.25.

I'm not quite sure what's confusing me so much. I guess I'm just surprised that people are truly capable of playing 100% in terms of big blind with no focus/care on the $. That's all y'all poker players too, that's how you think huh? It's really interesting, I would 1,000% never be able to.

Keep in mind, you can also play multiple tables online. I was playing six tables of 15/30 cent NL on pokerstars when it went live in MI. So starting with $180 on the table....you see so many more hands. While I don't think anyone could make a living at these stakes, they're certainly not always easy games.

 

[ngmcs8203]

Keep in mind, you can also play multiple tables online. I was playing six tables of 15/30 cent NL on pokerstars when it went live in MI. So starting with $180 on the table....you see so many more hands. While I don't think anyone could make a living at these stakes, they're certainly not always easy games.

There are plenty of folks in poorer countries grinding out a living. That's where you get your better competition at these stakes. I'll see dudes playing 12-15 tables of 25BL-100NL, all at once, while living in Croatia or Brazil. A modest 3-4bb/hr per table at these stakes is about $100/day but for them that could mean a lot more money than they'd make doing something else.

 

[DirtyTIVA]

Boy that sure sounds like a lot of fun

 

[Marc Hedrick]

Boy that sure sounds like a lot of fun

It wasn't. That's why I quit .... Felt like a job where I was making a few bucks an hour.

 

[ngmcs8203]

Boy that sure sounds like a lot of fun

Nobody has it worse the nitregs in the 25-100NL pool. Playing 18/15/5 for thousands of hands a day.