$2/$5 NLHE Turn Decision from Bellagio (2 Viewers)

[Moxie Mike]

I thought this was an interesting hand from the trip so I thought I'd share it with you to get your perspective on what certain bets mean from specific types of players.

$2/$5 NLHE at Bellagio. Game is good and loose preflop but not a lot of hands made it to showdown. I'd been at the table about 1.5 hrs at this point.

I am UTG +2 with a stack of about $450 and look down at . I make the standard open to $20. Button (preflop calling station - stack recently topped up to about $500) and BB (another preflop calling station - stack ~$350 after buying in for $500) make the call. Pot =$62

3-handed we take a flop of . BB checks, I bet $45. Button folds; BB calls with little hesitation. Pot = $152

The turn is the . BB leads out for $50, leaving about $235 remaining in his stack. Pot is now $202.

Thoughts?

 

[BGinGA]

Fold - you're probably drawing to just two outs.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Fold - you're probably drawing to just two outs.

So we think the BB holds an ace? Given that flop, what types of hands would he call a continuation bet with that contain an ace? And would he really lead the turn if that ace hit his hand giving him top pair/aces up or whatever?

 

[DrStrange]

I fear the X is in play. I also have proper respect for calling stations who lead out. I think a fold is the best play.

This would be a bit harder problem if the big blind checks vs betting 1/3 pot. For the record, I check behind and perhaps bluff catch on the river.

DrStrange

PS Yes, I do think BB holds an ace, specifically the ace of spades. Check / call flop followed by leading turn suggests strength. That sequence delivered from a calling station even more so. Hero holds both black queens, making it somewhat harder for villain to have turned a bigger draw.

If BB were a skilled villain, I could give some credence to a blocking bet. I'd also be a bigger fan of calling if the $50 was the last bet Hero will need to pay off.

 

[Moxie Mike]

I fear the X is in play. I also have proper respect for calling stations who lead out. I think a fold is the best play.

This would be a bit harder problem if the big blind checks vs betting 1/3 pot. For the record, I check behind and perhaps bluff catch on the river.

Checking back the turn is a pretty standard play here. However his lead out highly suggests that his hand can't take a lot of pressure, doesn't it?

 

[wonderpuddle]

I call and see the river. I don’t think an Ace is all he could have. From the big blind, a calling station has a much wider range than just an Ace in my opinion. He may have hit an Ace, but he also could be betting with air to represent the Ace and the hope you just c-bet with a weak-ish hand. He could also have a draw that improved with the Ace (45 of clubs or two face cards, for example). His range is pretty wide in my opinion. I don’t feel great but I call and see the river.

 

[DrStrange]

Yes the 1/3 pot turn bet by villain could be a blocking bet. villain might misunderstand and think his kicker matters vs Hero's hand. That might be a valid concern if Hero c-bet a big ace vs a big pair. I don't think villain is making this bet with a draw only - though that would be a good play vs the right type of Hero. In a GTO type game hero would need to pay off the turn bet.

I can respect the spirit in an all-in raise by Hero, but I think a calling station type player with a reasonable draw is going to call with top pair / weak kicker.

Let's not make life hard for Hero even if it might feel a bit too weak tight.

 

[Lemonzest]

Leading the turn all of a sudden out of position for 1/3 pot is suspicious as hell. It could be his last attempt to win the hand or he has you crushed. I would probably call and just see what he does on the river. A fold is probably the right decision as it becomes hard to put much more into the pot now with an A on board.

 

[Moxie Mike]

I call and see the river. I don’t think an Ace is all he could have. From the big blind, a calling station has a much wider range than just an Ace in my opinion. He may have hit an Ace, but he also could be betting with air to represent the Ace and the hope you just c-bet with a weak-ish hand. He could also have a draw that improved with the Ace (45 of clubs or two face cards, for example). His range is pretty wide in my opinion. I don’t feel great but I call and see the river.

So what's your plan if you call and he leads out for $125 on a red river card? If you're plan is to call, I think you have to do so assuming he's betting any river here.

 

[kmccormick100]

I disagree, I'm calling almost 100% of the time for a 1/3 pot donk bet on a board that now contains two flush draws. I don't think many aces are leading out that small with a draw heavy board into the PFR who's range the A should hit. I'm calling and evaluating his river action.

 

[BGinGA]

So we think the BB holds an ace? Given that flop, what types of hands would he call a continuation bet with that contain an ace? And would he really lead the turn if that ace hit his hand giving him top pair/aces up or whatever?

Yep. Almost certainly the ace of spades, paired with either another spade or one of the board cards.

Leading out is a great play imo. It has you guessing here, no? Especially if he's putting you on a big ace and he has two pair -- he's looking for a call, since that's what he'd be doing in your shoes.

I'm still folding, and saving my stack for a better spot. I try not to get married to hands like Queens when there's more than a decent chance I'm beat.

 

[kmccormick100]

So what's your plan if you call and he leads out for $125 on a red river card? If you're plan is to call, I think you have to do so assuming he's betting any river here.

On a red brick and a bet of $125 into $250 with no other info I lean more towards folding, but I'm also going to place a lot of weight on how quickly he bets, and what his reaction to the river card is. When you call that turn, I don't think a mediocre ace is betting again on the river, I think it polarizes him to something like AT, A6, 66, 22 or a bricked flush draw.

 

[wonderpuddle]

So what's your plan if you call and he leads out for $125 on a red river card? If you're plan is to call, I think you have to do so assuming he's betting any river here.

Depends a little on my read of him. If a card that makes a draw comes and he gives off strength tells and fires, I lay it down and it only cost me $50 to see the river. If a red blank comes that doesn’t make either straight I may call. Depends on my read. But at the turn, there’s a decent chance he checks the river.
If he has that weak ace it sounds like many fear, if I call the turn and he doesn’t improve, he’s the one out of position. Is he really going to fire the river? I called his turn bet. Maybe I have a better ace. He may check and I get to see a showdown.

 

[Moxie Mike]

I'm leaving the office to go home now so here's the spoiler - feel free to continue to discuss if you care to:

Spoiler: spoiler

I read the situation that the ace may very well have hit him, but the small bet highly suggested that his hand couldn't take much pressure. In retrospect, a bet of $75 or $100 would be a much clearer fold.

I decided that his bet was a semi-bluff/blocker-bet/betting-a-scare-card combo of sorts. Calling seemed unwise, since I really don't have a plan to deal with his river bet.

"Raise to $150", I said out loud as I began stacking red chips in front of me. Villain appeared visibly uncomfortable as he knuckled the table twice and quickly mucked his hand before I could even get the chips out there.

 

[Lemonzest]

This is what makes poker great. There are the cards but there is no substitute for sensing weakness and pouncing on it. No book out there will advocate re-raising QQ when an Ace peels off on the turn.
I definitely prefer a raise than calling down 2 streets.
Nice hand.

 

[kmccormick100]

I'm leaving the office to go home now so here's the spoiler - feel free to continue to discuss if you care to:

Spoiler: spoiler

I read the situation that the ace may very well have hit him, but the small bet highly suggested that his hand couldn't take much pressure. In retrospect, a bet of $75 or $100 would be a much clearer fold.

I decided that his bet was a semi-bluff/blocker-bet/betting-a-scare-card combo of sorts. Calling seemed unwise, since I really don't have a plan to deal with his river bet.

"Raise to $150", I said out loud as I began stacking red chips in front of me. Villain appeared visibly uncomfortable as he knuckled the table twice and quickly mucked his hand before I could even get the chips out there.

I had considered this line as well. Feels like an overplay agaisnt some players, but takes the guesswork out of tricky river runouts. I like it.

 

[Lemonzest]

I had considered this line as well. Feels like an overplay agaisnt some players, but takes the guesswork out of tricky river runouts. I like it.

I play like this sometimes. Its cool when it works but you feel like you just burned money when he insta snaps you off with AK.

If you have a read then run with it but it isn't a good way to play on paper.

 

[Pesto628]

I would have called the turn and re-evaluated on the river. If you fold to his small turn lead I think you’d be overfolding. I don’t love your raise because you put yourself in a position where he folds out everything you beat and continues with hands that have you dominated.

Is the raise on the turn a bluff or a raise for value? I could see it being for protection if you think he’s on a draw.

 

[Moxie Mike]

I don’t love your raise because you put yourself in a position where he folds out everything you beat and continues with hands that have you dominated.

Is the raise on the turn a bluff or a raise for value?

1) That's one way to look at it. My perspective is that any aces he folds to my aggression is a coup for my hand. I read the situation that his calling range had to be very narrow given the turn lead.

2) I don't know. I read his lead out as a blocker bet of sorts, so I don't know if I was bluffing or protecting the best hand. My objective was to kill the action.

 

[johnnyesper]

I'm leaving the office to go home now so here's the spoiler - feel free to continue to discuss if you care to:

Spoiler: spoiler

I read the situation that the ace may very well have hit him, but the small bet highly suggested that his hand couldn't take much pressure. In retrospect, a bet of $75 or $100 would be a much clearer fold.

I decided that his bet was a semi-bluff/blocker-bet/betting-a-scare-card combo of sorts. Calling seemed unwise, since I really don't have a plan to deal with his river bet.

"Raise to $150", I said out loud as I began stacking red chips in front of me. Villain appeared visibly uncomfortable as he knuckled the table twice and quickly mucked his hand before I could even get the chips out there.

This was my first instinct. Like everyone else, I thought he had an ace but if you think of what combos he possible could have it was likely it was a weak enough. Your aggression was the right play.