PAHWM: Live 10/20 PLO4 from the BB (13 Viewers)

[grandmeme]

I'm feeling bored at work today so let's go through some mid-stakes PLO action from Crown Melbourne.

PLO $10/$20 ($40)
8 handed
Hero (BB) is effective stack (~$4100)

UTG - tighter local pro
SB - Splashy known USA pro here for a good time - good player but he is whaling off
Hero (BB) has been drinking a lot with SB and has just rebought after GII with top set vs a wrap in a 3! pot - so maybe I look like a total steaming fish?

$40 STRD is on
UTG opens to $120
SB calls $120

Hero (BB) has been dealt and action is on me. Option?

 

[JMC9389]

Call and see a flop. No need to bloat this pot out of position.

 

[Mojo1312]

This is a hand that could get Hero in a lot of trouble., but is too good to fold from the BB.
Hero completes the action. Agree with JMC. Flat.

With Hero's holdings, pot control is key. Which of the two Villains does Hero hope to squeeze out with a raise?

 

[grandmeme]

I think this is a pretty straightforward preflop decision so I'll move on. UTG is a tight pro so I'd expect him to open with the correct ranges - don't want him to inflate the pot further. SB currently has any 4 cards so I don't want to squeeze him out either.

$4.1k effective
Hero calls, STRD folds (Pot: $400)
Flop:

As the comes out in the window, SB yells out "That's me!!" to the delight of the table and pots it for $400.

Action is on Hero. Option?

 

[Mojo1312]

I am not good enough to fold. A case can be made for raising for more information and getting to heads-up, but I lean towards flatting.
A number of cards will bring in the straight.

 

[JMC9389]

Call. Backdoor spades plus backdoor straights still out there. There are a lot of cards that improve you. Ignore the speech play, there's still a lot going on here.

 

[Highli99]

Jam.

 

[DrStrange]

IF Hero is planning to fold middle set on a rainbow board, he likely should have folded preflop.

There are plenty of Broadway type hands which love this flop and have excellent equity vs middle set. Perhaps not favorites, but solid chances to win vs Hero's hand. Same with a middle card rundown - villain could have a reasonable hand. Villain could also have little more than an over pair plus a gutter.

Let's call and see the turn and reevaluate. I think there is more money to be made giving villain rope vs going for stacks on the flop. -=- DrStrange

 

[mipevi]

Easy flat pre for reasons mentioned.

On the flop hero blocks top2 with the 99 and reasonable straight draws a bit with the T. Holding backdoor nut spades I'd really like to see the turn. Flat and see what UTG wants to do.

 

[davislane]

I think this is a pretty straightforward preflop decision so I'll move on. UTG is a tight pro so I'd expect him to open with the correct ranges - don't want him to inflate the pot further. SB currently has any 4 cards so I don't want to squeeze him out either.

$4.1k effective
Hero calls, STRD folds (Pot: $400)
Flop:

As the comes out in the window, SB yells out "That's me!!" to the delight of the table and pots it for $400.

Action is on Hero. Option?

without knowing previous history with sb and utg I have to advocate a flat, but given your stack depth, a raise to $1300 here also makes sense as you can just jam most turns for full pot or save the jam for the river if checked to.

all options are viable except fold

 

[grandmeme]

UTG - tighter local pro

SB - Splashy known USA pro here for a good time - good player but he is whaling off

Hero (BB) has been dealt
$4.1k effective

Flop: (Pot: $400)

SB bets $400

I agree that all options are definitely viable except fold. In-game, I think briefly before deciding to call. While there are many reasons on why I could potentially raise with this particular hand, I prefer a call.

While I do block some potential wraps with the , the main reason is because the SB has been showing down so many complete airball bluffs in 3! pots and absolutely blasting. Knowing this, I want to be keeping hands in where he could be drawing stone dead or with little outs. With backdoor spades my hand is not extremely vulnerable and I am less vigilant of UTG since I presume he would only raise flop with the nuts or the world.

Hero (BB) calls $400
Pro (UTG) folds

As UTG folds, SB double checks his cards and mutters, "That can't be good for me!" and checks in the dark.


Pot: $1600
Flop: Turn:

SB (X in dark)

This is an interesting card. It brings in the obvious straight draws but obviously we pick up the NFD. We have around $3300 behind so about a 2 SPR. Hero?

 

[mipevi]

On the turn hero also picked up a gutshot to the nut straight. While we could be behind, I think our holding is too strong to not extract some value from a splashy player. I'm betting $800.

 

[Mojo1312]

A wrap is definitely within Splashy's range. As described in O.P. and Hero's follow up post revealing the flop, Splashy is there for the action and the fun.
Just because he is whaling off, I would not be doing his betting for him. With one card to go, Hero is a dog to a straight. Villain could also be misdirecting Hero as to the strength of his hand by checking in the dark.

I am still leaning on the side of controlling the pot.

 

[Kain8]

If you're willing to stack off on the turn you may as well lead now after being checked to. If you're not, see a river for free.

 

[DrStrange]

If Hero bets, what is the goal? Is he hoping villain calls with a worse hand, say an over-pair or is he hoping to get villain to fold what equity he has?

If Hero checks, is he hoping for the free card to turn his hand into the winner or is he trying to trap villain by inducing a river bet with air?

Reading this, "the SB has been showing down so many complete airball bluffs in 3! pots and absolutely blasting. Knowing this, I want to be keeping hands in where he could be drawing stone dead or with little outs." Makes me wonder what prompted the check dark. We are apparently dealing with a skilled player in villain. I get deep into the weeds trying to think through the gamesmanship potential either way.

Slow playing trickery often gets punished in PLO. I think Hero's hand is best, let's bet it. I like a half-pot bet. Hero has excellent equity vs villain's range, so stacking off isn't crazy.

Bet $800. Stacking off on the turn if needed -=- DrStrange

 

[JustinInMN]

Hero (BB) has been dealt
$4.1k effective

Flop: (Pot: $400)

SB bets $400

I agree that all options are definitely viable except fold. In-game, I think briefly before deciding to call. While there are many reasons on why I could potentially raise with this particular hand, I prefer a call.

While I do block some potential wraps with the , the main reason is because the SB has been showing down so many complete airball bluffs in 3! pots and absolutely blasting. Knowing this, I want to be keeping hands in where he could be drawing stone dead or with little outs. With backdoor spades my hand is not extremely vulnerable and I am less vigilant of UTG since I presume he would only raise flop with the nuts or the world.

Hero (BB) calls $400
Pro (UTG) folds

As UTG folds, SB double checks his cards and mutters, "That can't be good for me!" and checks in the dark.


Pot: $1600
Flop: Turn:

SB (X in dark)

It's hard for me to bet this as hero because we do hold the nut flush draw and we hold middle set. So what lesser hands can villain call with? Since this is a dark check, he certainly has KT and T8 in range. Are we hoping he stacks off with QJ?

I think there's more upside to taking the free card and plan to call the river or possibly bet it ourselves if checked to again.

 

[JMC9389]

I go between checking and leading. Both posts in favor of each approach make good points.

I probably bet smallish ($700-$750) and see what villain does.

The money is going in with any spade, 9, or K on the river. My gut is saying villain turned a straight.

If villain jams over the top, I sigh call and hope for an out.

 

[Mojo1312]

A half pot size bet prices in villain to call with any draw that beats us.

 

[grandmeme]

I'll post the river when I'm on my lunch break, but I think I hit the tank for about 45 seconds or so on this turn. Can we possibly get value from 2P or 33? I'm definitely including all the J3, J9, QJ in Villain's range. Is this range analysis reasonable or a mistake?

 

[Mojo1312]

Pros aren't going to overvalue two pairs.

 

[mipevi]

I'll post the river when I'm on my lunch break, but I think I hit the tank for about 45 seconds or so on this turn. Can we possibly get value from 2P or 33? I'm definitely including all the J3, J9, QJ in Villain's range. Is this range analysis reasonable or a mistake?

I would discount 33xx and J3xx from his range assuming he's still folding some hands pre, and J9xx a bit because that would be the last nine. QJxx would be most likely of those holdings. Hero's image matters as to what we can get value from, but with a reasonable QJxx villain will often have some draw to go with it on this board. I'd bet half pot so villain needs to call with a wider range, but also to induce a bluff or semi-bluff from stuff like KKxx or AK86 with K-high spades.

We are behind KTxx, T8xx, JJxx and QQxx, but the only holding villain should be happy to check/raise for value is the first one. Assuming the other hands would just call, on a blank river we are likely able to check back and take the showdown if we want to.

And hero's draws are nutted so I'd like to build the pot a little, so we can play for stacks if we happen to have the nuts on the river. If hero held a naked 99xx I would check back turn.

 

[grandmeme]

Hero (BB) has been dealt
$4.1k effective

SB - Splashy known USA pro here for a good time - good player but he is whaling off

Pot: $1600
Flop: Turn:

SB X in the dark

This is an interesting turn card. On first instinct, I wanted to check back to realise my equity with my specific hand. I doubt that SB would check in the dark with JJ specifically, and so I thought a lot of his range consisted of things like KTxx, T8xx, QJxx J9xx, 33xx (small combos of each), trash KKxx, you get the idea. Even though the SB has a wide range here, I'm not convinced that this is a node where he would pot flop and dark X turn with trash that hit like J3xx, or pure airballs.

With that particular range I'm not entirely sure that I'm accomplishing that much with a bet - basically only value betting against the occasional J9, 33 or QJ here. I did think about betting smaller to induce, but I did think that if he did have an airball, he would probably blast on blank rivers. I could be definitely convinced that a b33 or b50 is better here.

Hero X back

Pot: $1600

Flop: Turn: River:

SB bets $1500

Hero?