So now we're $665 effective, with $465 in the pot, right?
That ace didn't necessarily hit UTG. How many hands do you honestly think he could have that would limp/call preflop and flat that flop,
and would improve on an ace? It's not impossible, but it is very limited. We're talking maybe A5/S9 (both very weird hands for a limp/call UTG), 34 (super-weird preflop), AQ/AK (both weird for the limp and the flop call), or a slowplayed AA (weird, but makes a bit of sense when you think about the preflop spot he was in).
On the other hand, his range could include a ton of other hands that weren't already sets and didn't improve on the ace. They'd all probably shut down now, though, if we bet. The pot's too big and stacks too small to try to steal, and the ace made our hand if we were just swinging with AK or AQ.
But here's a thought: That $120 bet on the flop looks kinda weak or scared, especially because it's exactly twice the preflop raise amount. It looks like we are forcing ourselves to c-bet, and we know we have to bet more on this round than preflop, but we don't want to put much more money in the pot. It reeks of someone who's not very confident in his hand. A check on that ace would look like we're ready to give up—like, say, someone who has a modest big pair and just shit himself on an overcard. Of course, we know the pot is too big to check/fold and certainly not to a LAG, of all people, on a card that seems unlikely to improve him based on his line.
On that note, I think I might rescind my plan to shove any turn, and instead check into the LAG. The goal is to entice a bet that he might make with a lot of steal hands in addition to a pair of aces or better. I mean, let's face it, we're not getting called by a worse hand at this point, and we're not getting away from this massive pot we created. If he has a better hand, we're getting stacked. If he has a worse hand and we bet, we're probably only winning what's out there. But if he has a worse hand and we check, we may even get him to pay us off for stacks in spot where he's drawing dead or nearly so.
My only point of hesitation is this: He's a LAG and has taken a passive line with us. That's a little strange. And I might be a lot more wary about further involvement if this had started off as a small pot. Unfortunately, it didn't, and we now only have about 1.5 times the pot in play.
Worse hands may not call but they certainly may bet if checked to.
This is
precisely the reason to check with the intention of calling. We're committed to this pot already. If he has us beat, he has us beat. Our main concern now should be getting the money in against his worse hands in addition to his better hands. The best way to do that is to check.
Bet/folding would be madness here. We started off with an SPR of 3:1 and are now at less than 1.5:1. Building up giant pots and then abandoning them is one of the most exploitable and expensive mistakes in big-bet poker.