What are the odds of THIS happening? (1 Viewer)

[Trihonda]

Playing 1/2 at Bally's

 

[200 Motels]

52 Factorial.

 

[DJ Mack]

52 Factorial.

 

[riotouslevity]

Playing 1/2 at Bally's

View attachment 77370

0.0000017%. Or almost 59 Million to 1

Because 16 J4 hands out of 1369 starting hands = 0.012

And 3 jjj44 boards out of 2,118,760 boards out of the remaining 50 cards
= 0.0000014

Multiply together to get total probability..

Not 100 % on this.

 

[Ronoh]

0.0000017%. Or almost 59 Million to 1

Because 16 J4 hands out of 1369 starting hands = 0.012

And 3 jjj44 boards out of 2,118,760 boards out of the remaining 50 cards
= 0.0000014

Multiply together to get total probability..

Not 100 % on this.

Far too high simply because you factored in the necessity of it being all jacks and fours... the board is what matters, not what the particular hole cards happened to be. I'm in my truck on my phone so won't try doing the math but far better to start the math using any two random non-paired cards.

In other words whatever 6 chances out of 50, 5 out of 49, 4 of 48, 3 of 47 and 2 of 46 comes out to.

 

[bentax1978]

I'm in my truck on my phone so won't try doing the math but far better to start the math using any two random non-paired cards.

In other words whatever 6 chances out of 50, 5 out of 49, 4 of 48, 3 of 47 and 2 of 46 comes out to.

I'm sitting at my desk with Excel open anyway; The above works out to about 1 in 353,000.

 

[lnlver]

When holding any two non-paired cards, the chances of flopping a full house are 18 out of 19,600. All you have to do now is calculate the odds of the last two cards matching those and multiplying them together. Would this be 3/47 x 2/46?

.0000025487 or 392,356 to 1

 

[bivey]

When holding any two non-paired cards, the chances of flopping a full house are 18 out of 19,600. All you have to do now is calculate the odds of the last two cards matching those and multiplying them together. Would this be 3/47 x 2/46?

.0000025487 or 392,356 to 1

But you have to add the crazy rare flipping of quads followed by....my brain hurts

 

[rowlin]

It sounds like "THIS" may not be well-defined.

 

[SixSpeedFury]

How about the odds on this?

 

[lnlver]

When holding two non-paired cards, the chances of flopping quads are 2 out of 19,600. Then the other cards come out 3/47 x 2/46.

.0000002832

total = .0000028318 or 353,131 to 1 for both cases

 

[lnlver]

How about the odds on this?

View attachment 77382

The odds of a dealer button appearing in a photo along with the board cards is .50 or 1 to 1.

 

[Ronoh]

How about the odds on this?

View attachment 77382

20 chances out of 52 followed by 4 of 51, 3 of 50, 2 of 49 and 1 of 48. Far higher if you require spades (to my initial point).

 

[Mr Tree]

Jeeze what an awful way to catch quads. Lol left absolutely nothing for anyone else to have.

 

[bentax1978]

Jeeze what an awful way to catch quads. Lol left absolutely nothing for anyone else to have.

Yup. Only $70 in that pot at showdown.

 

[Mr. Cheese]

Jeeze what an awful way to catch quads. Lol left absolutely nothing for anyone else to have.

Forrest and I had a similar hand in Omaha except the flop was J J J and I had the other Jack. He had pocket Ace's. That's about the only way that maybe gets some action or if the other guy had a 4.

 

[Numerobis]

20 chances out of 52 followed by 4 of 51, 3 of 50, 2 of 49 and 1 of 48. Far higher if you require spades (to my initial point).

so that's about 1 per 650,000 hands

if on average a hand is 2 minutes, you will get a royal flush every 45 days in a casino with 20 tables

 

[Chicken Rob]

Jeeze what an awful way to catch quads. Lol left absolutely nothing for anyone else to have.

Yeah but you might be able to get paid on the river when it looks like you're bluffing and playing the board.

 

[bentax1978]

Yeah but you might be able to get paid on the river when it looks like you're bluffing and playing the board.

And perhaps get lucky if the other guy has a PP higher than 44, making the call a lot easier than just calling a bluff to split a pot.

 

[Mental Nomad]

What are the odds of THIS happening?

Playing 1/2 at Bally's

View attachment 77370

100%.

Happened at 1/2 at Bally's.

(see pics)

 

[Chicken Rob]

And perhaps get lucky if the other guy has a PP higher than 44, making the call a lot easier than just calling a bluff to split a pot.

I've been in that exact spot, except I didn't have the extra blocker in my hand. Boat on the board. I had the quads, villain had aces. Won a $600ish pot in a 1/2 game.

He called my pot sized $200 river bet. Not a huge pot, but I got paid.

 

[Trihonda]

Jeeze what an awful way to catch quads. Lol left absolutely nothing for anyone else to have.

Yup. Only $70 in that pot at showdown.

Yeah but you might be able to get paid on the river when it looks like you're bluffing and playing the board.

Interesting table. I'm in the bb with J4s (crap) and table limps around to a grinder (who's been raising my BB a lot), he bumps it to $7, and there's a number of callers. I complete (for whatever reason). The flop is good for me. I check, grinder c-bets, and the button (huge drunk-fish) and I flat. Grinder checks the turn, button checks, I lead out for $$15-20-ish, grinder folds, fish calls. River sucks for us, but I still get the rest of fish's money (not seen in the pic). Fish only had like $30+ behind, I bet his stack size and he tank-drunk calls). That last bet had yet to get scooped into the middle by the dealer at the time I snapped the pic. In the end the pot was over $100, certainly not a huge pot, but it was better than the blinds.

Fish had an ace in his hand (showed), and said he thought he was ahead on the turn (double paired board, ace kicker). I did say he was a fish.

 

[Ronoh]

Pretty sure your action is off a bit seeing that you check/called the flop and bet the turn from the BB after both players checked in front of you

 

[Poker Zombie]

Playing 1/2 at Bally's

View attachment 77370

What are the odds that I would play J4 out of position? Pretty close to zero.

 

[BGinGA]

What are the odds that I would play J4 out of position? Pretty close to zero.

It was sooooted.

 

[Wils]

Playing 1/2 at Bally's

View attachment 77370

Depends
If it was poker*s, about 1 in 3

 

[Trihonda]

Pretty sure your action is off a bit seeing that you check/called the flop and bet the turn from the BB after both players checked in front of you

Could be. Limited sleep. I got a
C bet outta The orig raiser, then the fish's entire meh Stack.

 

[Trihonda]

It was sooooted.

View attachment 77410

Speaking of nits. You're in for 300 and You're stuck after a bad beat, then the dealer reminds you to keep your chips in stacks.... you beat the system by making stacks of 1...

I showed him. Lol.

I did recover nicely. .

 

[BGinGA]

Ack, I hate chip sets like that. My ocd would require that those chips be in seven different stacks.....

 

[MatB]

Ack, I hate chip sets like that. My ocd would require that those chips be in seven different stacks.....

you must have it bad, i only see 5 separate stacks...