Quick way to calculate odds/percentage? (1 Viewer)

[nbrun]

Hey guys,

Is there a quick way that you use to calculate your odds or percentage of winning the runout?

I heard Hellmuth say once “we’ll your have 5 outs so you times that by 4” aka 20%. But that wasn’t the exact case, it was about 27% chance to win, not 20.

Thoughts?

 

[BPTDirector]

That rule gets you in the vicinity though. 4x outs on the turn 2x on the River.

 

[nbrun]

Yeah okay, vicinity is cool. Just thought if there was an explanation behind it or a better way

 

[glynn]

This is called the 2/4 rule (or some variation). It is used when you don't need or couldn't know the exact odds. The 7% discrepancy likely means that the outs were counted wrong.

 

[BPTDirector]

If the game was always numbers it would be a lot easier. 7% margin of error is an outlier I think but in a game time situation I don’t know about you but I’m not in good enough brain condition nor inclined really to waste my strategy purely on advanced math. The 2/4 rule is plenty good enough. Helmuth hasn’t done bad using it. I personally use it to help define risk vs. reward to determine my style of play

 

[Frogzilla]

Also note, TV stream odds sometimes will factor in removal from folded cards into their odds. I.e, if that Hellmuth stream was that way (almost certainly was given the data you gave), sometimes it’ll show 27% all live, 21% 4 live, 16% 3 live. You don’t know whether you are in a 27% 21% or 16% situation because you aren’t cheating

2x/4x is good enough

 

[Frogzilla]

Could also have been backdoors, running cards (ie 3 to a straight, 3 to a flush), those are each worth about 4%-5% on unpaired boards IIRC

edit: straight might be more like 3%

 

[upNdown]

Could also have been backdoors, running cards (ie 3 to a straight, 3 to a flush), those are each worth about 4%-5% on unpaired boards IIRC

edit: straight might be more like 3%

Right, haha. The odds of hitting what you believe to be your outs can be different from your odds of actually winning the hand.

 

[Shaggy]

The rule of 2x/4x is only half of the puzzle. Using the rule of 2x looks something like this:

On a rainbow flop, I have an open ended straight draw to the nuts. If I hit my card I will win. I have 8 outs. My chance of hitting my card is 8x2 = 16%. So what?

Now we have to look at how much it costs us and how much we will win. Let's add more details.

Our opponent raised pre-flop. He did a continuation bet on the flop. We think it is likely he has top pair or an over pair. We have position on him. He bet $15 into a $20 pot. The pot now has $35 in it and it is $15 to call.

Remember our 16% earlier... so 16% we win, 84% we lose. 84/16 = 5.25/1 or 5.25 to 1. You need to be confident that you can win 5.25 times your call amount in order for the call to be correct. That is 5.25x$15 = ~$79.

Since the pot doesn't currently have ~$79 in it, it isn't laying you the proper "pot odds" to call. However, don't fold yet. Now the question you have to ask is... if I hit my card, will my opponent put ~$44 more into the pot ($79-$35)? Well on the turn, the pot will have $50 in it. If he checks to you... do you think he will call a $44 bet into $50? If so, you should call that $15. If not, you should likely fold that $15 flop bet.

Usually, the decisions at the table are not so close... the villain may bet more on the flop, making it obvious you should fold. Perhaps he is super tight so you know he won't call anything from you on the turn if you hit. Perhaps he is super loose and you know he will call damn near anything. Perhaps he is short stacked and doesn't have the additional $44 to call... so you will never get the right price.

When the decision is close, its nice to have some tools to help you make the right decision.

 

[Shaggy]

Let's demonstrate the rule of 4x.

A player raised preflop to $10... four players called, including us. We are on the button. There is $50 in the pot. On the flop, we have a OESD (open end straight draw).

The first player to act bets all-in for $30. The remaining players fold. Action is on us. We have the bettor covered. There is $80 in the pot right now.

Here's the math:

Rule of 4x: Our outs are 8, so the rule of four says our % of catching our card with two cards to come is 4x... so 32%
Converting to Odds: 68/32 = 2.1 to 1

The pot needs to be laying us 2.1 times our call amount in order to justify the call. i.e. $30 x 2.1 = $63.

The pot has $80 in it. It is mathematically correct to call here. If we lose, we can't second guess ourselves. This was absolutely the correct decision.

 

[Taghkanic]

IIRC as the number of outs increases the 2/4 rule tends to overestimate a bit.

So for (say) combo draws where you have as many as 12-15+ outs, you want to bump down the percentage a bit.

There are lots of articles about this, just Google calculating odds rule of 2/4 poker.

 

[Legend5555]

The actual math is 1 - (chance you don't hit).

If you have a flush draw, you have 9 outs. You know 5 cards (yours and the flop). So the chance you DON'T hit any of your outs is:

(38/47)*(37/46) = 65%.

So the chance you hit AT LEAST one of your outs is 1 - .65 = 35%.

Or 9*4 = 36%.

On turn it's easy: 9/46 = 19.5%.

Or 9*2 = 18%.

Generally the 2/4 method is within 2% until you start getting to large numbers of outs. At 15 outs, it's off by about 5.5% on the flop.

 

[BPTDirector]

Like I said, more than close enough for casual semi-stoned play.

 

[BPTDirector]

Ok. Let’s play a little game. You are on an Epic heater,,, saying hit by the deck is an understatement. How much influence does this have on your play vs. the difference in 2/4? Yeah, I thought so.

 

[Bluegrass Poker]

That’s how twoplustwo forum got their website name IIRC.

 

[glynn]

That’s how twoplustwo forum got their website name IIRC.

From Wikipedia:

According to Malmuth, the name was adopted from the cover design of his book Gambling Theory and Other Topics where the equation 2+2=5 was illustrated with card pictures.

 

[upNdown]

At 15 outs, it's off by about 5.5% on the flop.

Wheb I flop an open ended flush draw, all I’m thinking about is how to get the most money in the middle.

 

[Colquhoun]

C'mon...it's 50/50.
You either hit it, or you don't.

 

[nbrun]

Let's demonstrate the rule of 4x.

A player raised preflop to $10... four players called, including us. We are on the button. There is $50 in the pot. On the flop, we have a OESD (open end straight draw).

The first player to act bets all-in for $30. The remaining players fold. Action is on us. We have the bettor covered. There is $80 in the pot right now.

Here's the math:

Rule of 4x: Our outs are 8, so the rule of four says our % of catching our card with two cards to come is 4x... so 32%
Converting to Odds: 68/32 = 2.1 to 1

The pot needs to be laying us 2.1 times our call amount in order to justify the call. i.e. $30 x 2.1 = $63.

The pot has $80 in it. It is mathematically correct to call here. If we lose, we can't second guess ourselves. This was absolutely the correct decision.

Wow, thank you for explaining this! I will be doing a lot more research on the 2/4 rule and also how to calculate pot odds.

Thanks man!

 

[moose]

It is simply: #outs * 2 * # of cards to come

 

[WedgeRock]

That rule gets you in the vicinity though. 4x outs on the turn 2x on the River.

Outs x 2.2 on the river.

 

[grebe]

Hey guys,

Is there a quick way that you use to calculate your odds or percentage of winning the runout?

I heard Hellmuth say once “we’ll your have 5 outs so you times that by 4” aka 20%. But that wasn’t the exact case, it was about 27% chance to win, not 20.

Thoughts?

He had other outs that were not as obvious...or outs to a chop or something. The rule of 4 is closer than 7% off.

EDIT: I should have read the thread first, @Frogzilla nailed it.

 

[LeLe]

2/4 rule for NLH, 3/6 rule for short deck

Usually I don’t count back door outs % as they are often cancel off by blocker hold by others

 

[ekricket]

Just memorize the 4-5 you actually need.

IMHO, You really only care when you are drawing to some type of flush or straight. Nobody cares what the pot odds are for a pair draw or for a full house draw. If your that deep into analysis for those then you are just fucked.

Learn the odds for a straight draw and a flush, and for an inside straight draw just so you know why you never chase it. I don’t worry about the “% to win” because it’s really the same number in a different format. Why do extra math when the solution is already there?

 

[Jeff]

Funny you mention that. I just saw a chip that I was going to copy that did just that.

One ring is the number of outs and the other ring is the multiple of the bet needed to justify calling (per the maths…since I can justify calling …just because)

Somebody make these to save me the effort!!!

 

[ekricket]

Funny you mention that. I just saw a chip that I was going to copy that did just that. View attachment 986479View attachment 986479

One ring is the number of outs and the other ring is the multiple of the bet needed to justify calling (per the maths…since I can justify calling …just because)

Somebody make these to save me the effort!!!

Hey come on now!! That’s my deal!!

 

[ekricket]

Funny you mention that. I just saw a chip that I was going to copy that did just that. View attachment 986479View attachment 986479

One ring is the number of outs and the other ring is the multiple of the bet needed to justify calling (per the maths…since I can justify calling …just because)

Somebody make these to save me the effort!!!

I was going to post this anyway as soon as the sun came up for better light! I made that on a lark, but you could always add another ring and put the percentage there.

 

[ekricket]

@Josh Kifer is a laser printing guy…..

 

[Jeff]

Sorry … for the life of me I couldn’t remember who had that chip! I think I may have been playing slightly impaired.