My first strategy post! AJ suited in low buy-in tourney (1 Viewer)

[Beakertwang]

I feel like I missed an opportunity on this hand, and I wanted to hear some feedback.

Background:

This is at my local casino's Wednesday night tournament. $20 gets you 5K in chips, $5 dealer appreciation ads 2K. First rebuy/add-on is $10 for 5K. 2nd rebuy/add-on is $20 for 10K. I always take the first add-on, sometimes the 2nd, right at the start. Most people save the 2nd one in case they bust, and use the add-on at the end of the rebuy period.

I'm 45, and I'm probably 10 years under average age. Regular crowd is lots of OMC's and a few OLC's. Lots of limping, 6 to a family flop, etc.

Blinds move quickly, 20 min. levels:
25/50
50/100
100/200
150/300
200/400
300/600
600/1200
1K/2K
2K/4K
3K/6K (this is where I busted)
5K/10K
10K/20K
15K/30K

36 player field, down to 15 or so. Blinds are at 600/1200. I'm sitting on about 60K, average is about 48K. Villain on the button is a sweet lady in her mid-late 70's. Not much experience with her, except she's not afraid to be aggressive when she has a hand. She has me outstacked by about 15K.

Folded to me in MP with . I raise to 3K, folds to button, who flats. Blinds fold.

Flop:

Action on me.

 

[Trihonda]

Pot is 7800? I’m C-betting this 80% of the time. Likely in the 4500 range. If you get called, reassess on the turn.

 

[Beakertwang]

Correction: There was an early limp-fold. Pot is 9000.

 

[Frogzilla]

I’d check this one. Too dry. Especially against an opponent who may be reluctant to bluff. I’d float if we get bet at for less than half-pot, even this villain

 

[Pesto628]

I’d also cbet probably 1/2 pot. Lots of turn cards can improve your hand.

 

[Rhodeman77]

I’m betting smaller here, a little less than half pot, 3500 to 4000. Very dry flop so anything that calls is most likely a pair already and not going to fold anyways.

 

[MrCatPants]

What Rhodeman said.

 

[Beakertwang]

C-bet 5500. Villain flats. Turn

 

[Pesto628]

I’m x/folding here. You’re out of position and don’t really have any outs when called.

 

[BGinGA]

Pre-flop raise is fine, I'd 1/2-pot c-bet flop, and check-fold turn. She is/has a queen.

 

[WedgeRock]

and a few OLC's

At first I was all

...but then I was all

 

[Beakertwang]

At first I was all

...but then I was all

 

[JustinInMN]

I think I am with the others, a small c bet is a good plan here. (In general you want to keep the sizing consistent with what you would do if you had aq or kq here.)

If she's tight this might get the job done if she's on a small pair or some other miss. If she calls/raises I don't mind shutting it down against an opponent like this. But to check here seems like a missed opportunity to take the pot from someone that may over fold.

If you aren't c-betting aj on dryer boards like this, you should probably fold it pf.

 

[Beakertwang]

So I check the turn, villain (I hate calling her this, because she's a really sweet lady ) thinks for maybe 15 seconds, and checks back.

River:

 

[JustinInMN]

Oh just saw the turn action. How tight do you think she is? Can the peel with hands like 44-77? Does she fold these to two barrels? (Well not 66 in this case.)

In general how often is she folding turn after calling the flop?

Could she have a Q and just doesn't want to raise?

I'm inclined to think tight means you don't have fold equity after getting called so it's time to bail when the turn bricks.

 

[JustinInMN]

So I check the turn, villain (I hate calling her this, because she's a really sweet lady ) thinks for maybe 15 seconds, and checks back.

River:

Interesting she didn't take an aggressive action, but she could still be passively playing a hand that beats you. I am inclined to give up here. If she doesn't have anything then maybe she wasn't really as tight as you expect.

 

[DrStrange]

Perflop seems fine.

Flop should be a c-bet. Dry board, heads up plus a back door flush draw. These are the last chips Hero should put in the pot unimproved. Don't downplay the value of the back door flush draw. Hitting a flush draw on the turn gives Hero a reason to barrel.

I think a check/fold line is fine for the turn and river.

DrStrange

 

[Beakertwang]

Oh just saw the turn action. How tight do you think she is? Can the peel with hands like 44-77? Does she fold these to two barrels? (Well not 66 in this case.)

In general how often is she folding turn after calling the flop?

Could she have a Q and just doesn't want to raise?

I'm inclined to think tight means you don't have fold equity after getting called so it's time to bail when the turn bricks.

She wasn't playing in a bunch of hands. She limped and folded the flop a couple times, and I saw her take down a couple nice pots with monsters, but nothing crafty. Standard raise a couple hands previous, and stole the blinds. 1st time I had ever seen her.

 

[BGinGA]

I'm checking the river. AJ has showdown value here (vs KJ, JT, etc.) and a bet is unlikely to get called unless you're beat, and I don't think she's folding anything that beats ace-high. Folding if she bets.

 

[Rhodeman77]

I’m checking this turn and would not be surprised if she checks right behind with a hand like QJ because she is worried about her kicker lol. I have seen a few of these OLC types. If she lets you get to showdown with A high, be happy, you may be good a small amount of the time.

 

[Beakertwang]

I’m checking this turn and would not be surprised if she checks right behind with a hand like QJ because she is worried about her kicker lol. I have seen a few of these OLC types. If she lets you get to showdown with A high, be happy, you may be good a small amount of the time.

Yep, turn went check, check.

River

 

[Frogzilla]

Villain specific history needed here. Does she call too much or fold too much to river bets when she is repping a pair? If her tendencies are to fold, then I might try to target her Q hands with a pot sized bluff. If she hasn’t shown this tendency, then it’s probably check-fold.

And, since no one agreed with me I just want to again state my case: we don’t have to c-bet flop out of position vs passive opponents. That bet feels like a mistake.

 

[WedgeRock]

I foresee a check-check river where her miss beats your miss and she takes it down, but any bet would've got her to lay it down.

Like ...

 

[Basmx]

I would c-bet the flop even smaller. Everything over 1/3 pot is a mistake in my opinion. She is not folding a Q or any pocket pair most likely for 1 bet. And I think she is folding everything else. Save yourself chips by betting small on the flop. On the turn the standard play is to check. I think any diamond an A, K or 10 are good barreling cards because you pickup good equity. I would bet on the bigger side if any of these cards came. She is gonna fold every small pocket pair and maybe even a hand like QJ. But on a i would just check/fold. Same for the river.

I don't expect to have to much showdown value when she calls the flop but you have some. If you think she will fold her pocket pair on the river with a bet you could go for it. But I think that really depends on the type of player she is.

 

[Beakertwang]

I think for about 30 seconds, considering barrelling, but in the end I check. She thinks for a while, even looks down at her chips and moves like she's about to grab some, then shakes it off, lets out a quiet, frustrated "gah" with a shake of her head, and checks. She tables 99.

I'm somewhere in between a 1/2 pot bet could have gotten her to fold and she would have found a call with just about anything. The room seems to call marginal hands too much, almost just not to be bullied, even though all the evidence points to their having a losing hand. In the end, I lost 15% of my stack, and didn't have to face any stressful decisions.

 

[JustinInMN]

Good check, if she called the flop, she can pretty safely call the river on a safe 4-6 run-out. A three barrel might have worked, but I think you'd have to risk your whole stack to find out if she can fold a hand with which she called the flop. Fine as played, you gave her a chance to fold small pairs or other hands with equity on the flop. If she's tight the call indicates something and it's fine to shut down.

And, since no one agreed with me I just want to again state my case: we don’t have to c-bet flop out of position vs passive opponents. That bet feels like a mistake.

It's precisely because it's a passive opponent that the bet may be worthwhile. Though I concede as in your other comment a little more specificity would help.

But you can't only bet hits or you won't get paid unless villian is an over caller. If villian is an over-folder the bet here exploits that.

 

[ohio3302016]

All in.

 

[BGinGA]

All in.

(turns ship directly into the path of incoming torpedo and floors it)

Hey, it could work.

 

[BukNaked36]

To me, the decision point is the turn. You either bet to represent a Q +, or you’re done with the hand. Bet/check/bet looks more like a bluff and villain knows it’s the end of the betting, so it’s more likely to get called.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I like a bet of about 4K here, maybe a hair more. Either she hit that flop or she didn't. If you get a call, plan an exit strategy.