JTs, middle possition, late in the session (1 Viewer)

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DrStrange

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Playing 1-2 live, seven handed. It is late in the session, over six hours in. The stacks are deep and the table is getting weary. This means the LAGs are not as full of fire and brimstone as they were at the start. This hand is taking place about 30 minutes after the pocket fives hand.

Cast of characters:

Hero is MP with $800. Hero has been in several big "fights" tonight, some won some lost. People expect that Hero can potentially escalate a hand quickly and are conflicted between greed and fear. Hero has been a lot more active lately but it isn't clear that people noticed

Co is a semi-agro calling station with $200. It has been a bad session for him.

Button is Crazy. A hyper LAGtard who much rather gambles than plays for an edge. He has $300 on a $2,300ish buy in. All he wants is to get out of the trap (and not to buy in again) at this point he can become more calling station than LAG. He busted and rebought last hand.

SB has $500 on a $100 buy in. Tricky-trappy, he plays hands backwards, betting draws and medium strength hands and slow playing better hands. This doesn't often work well but it is tonight. SB is racked up and leaving after his deal.

BB has $150 on a huge buy in. He is even crazier than Crazy, hard as that is to imagine. He too is tired and just wants to get a chance to get even.

UTG folded already - a semi TAG raking in the chips

UTG+1 is Old man coffee with $400. Classic grinder. Limps a lot, raises top 5% (or tighter). Very fit or fold. Can bluff, but rarely.

The hand:

UTG folds, old man coffee limps. Hero is dealt :jd: :td: Fold, call or raise? If raising, how much and why if you have a reason. Opening raises have ranged widely from $5 to $40. Hero has ranged widely too.

Last hand to be posted from this session -=- DrStrange
 
This is a great multiway hand but not something where I want to isolate for a lot of money. I can advocate a call or a raise but if raising I don't want to build a big pot yet. Maybe a $5-$8 pot sweetener raise on the hopes we can hit it good again?
 
make it $12 to go, J10s plays well post flop, if you get 3bet, depending on how many people are involved in the hand...then you have a decision to make.
 
In a normal game and this spot I think a raise to $10 is the way to go, but the insane BB on a short stack and stuck is my concern here. If we raise it's likely CO and BTN call, and BB will shove light, then we have a tough hand to decide whether to make a 3bet call. So I guess I prefer to limp, hope others do as well and if BB decides to raise it may be affordable.
 
*** On to the flop ***

Hero bets $5. CO (semi-agro calling station) calls, Old Man Coffee calls. All others fold. $18 in the pot, three way action.

Flop: :kh: :ts: :6d: Not exactly what hero was hoping for but not a miss either . . .

Old Man Coffee checks. Action on Hero - bet or check? If betting how much? Overall plan for the hand?

DrStrange
 
Feeler bet. Gauge interest and if you get pushback walk away. $15 here and if we are called check on turn unless we improve.
 
Since hero took the PF lead, bet $12, call if raised. A lot of turn cards help our hand. Leading the turn with any diamond, gutshot, trips, two pair.
 
Preflop: raise to $12 (with your entire raising range.) I hate pot-sweetener raises that give many players proper "odds" to call with many hands - if they are not making a mistake by calling, then whoever did the raising IS making a mistake. Also keeping open sizes consistent gives you a lot more flexibility to rep different hands in various situations postflop. If BB ships I'm fine with that, just fold.

Flop: check/call. Very standard in this spot. Decent chance we're ahead, decent chance we aren't, and our bet is going to get called by better hands, rarely by worse - better to give villains an opportunity to bluff with worse and/or not get raised off a hand that could catch up.
 
Food for thought. In the early hours, Hero could and did raise to $15 - $21 and still got many callers (I posted an $18 raise hand that got eight callers, it was not unique.) Now hero is raising $5 to $7 and getting 2/3rds of the table to fold.

So which is the "pot sweetener" bet, the $18 raise or the $5 raise. If we went by results, the $18 raise early in the session worked as a pot sweetener and the $5 - $7 raises late in the session mean business.

DrStrange
 
*** on to the turn ***

Hero bets $12, CO (semi-agro calling station) calls, Old Man Coffee calls. $54 in the pot, three way action.

Turn: < :kh: :ts: :6d: > :5h:

Old Man Coffee checks, action on Hero. Bet or check, if betting how much?

DrStrange
 
Do you think another barrel or two would push either of these players off of a bigger ten? I doubt either one has a king. If so, I'd bet $35 with plans to bet 2/3 pot on any non-face card river. If not, check.
 
Are we thinking old man coffee is going to lead the flop if he flops top pair+ rather than check to the opening raiser? (we already saw a hand where OMC check raised with middle set.)


Are we thinking old man coffee is check/calling middle pair?

CO has a massive range at this point, since his base style is loose calling station.

DrStrange
 
Check-fold to any bet. The only way I MIGHT consider putting another chip in this pot is if turn checks through, CO bets river and OMC folds. Depending on river card and how much.
 
In this hand I think I'm checking the turn for pot control. The 5 on the turn is unlikely improving anyone's hand except for someone who has backdoor hearts. You have some showdown value, but after a bet and two calls I wouldn't be thrilled about betting again. I'm more than likely taking a check/call line.
 
I suspect that OMC doesn't have a king worse than KTs in his pre-flop calling range, even vs a raise from a LAG.

Semi connected tens are possible - say T7s.

This all being said, we'll be speculating about OMC's hand shortly.

DrStrange
 
*** Onward ***

Hero checks, the semi-aggressive calling station bets $12. OMC folds. Action on Hero. $12 to call with the pot currently at $68. Effective stacks is $171.

Second question - what hand could OMC have held that he calls a $12 c-bet from hero but fold to a second $12 bet from the CO after Hero checks the turn?

DrStrange

PS And no, I do not really expect OMC is calling even a small raise with Kxs (but who can be sure, it is late, the stacks are deep and OMC is likely tired so his discipline might be weakening.)
 
Personally I think co is trying to steal after being checked to (even though the raise seems small and trappy). I'm not folding, I don't like calling OOP so I'm check raising with omc out of the hand.

Btw I imagine omc could possibly have something like QJ after not hitting his straight folds.
 
I'd call you're getting almost 5 to one odds. Also, OMC could have had any pair, just calling the flop to see if you would fire a second barrel or if he would improve. Of more importance however is what does the other guy have. Can you narrow his range at all?
 
OK I lied; not folding for $12. A stiff (looking) raise here might be kinda cool; CO certainly doesn't have a monster, and we may be able to get him off a slightly better hand than we have, or a draw. If not, maybe we can hit a river. I make it $40 more and see what happens. In the (very unlikely) event he ships, fold.
 
DrStrange said:
Say CO bet/calls after Hero's check/raise. Are we betting the river on a blank?

DrStrange
Click to expand...

Without any other info besides he is a stuck station? No. At the table being able to get some idea how much he likes his hand, and history to say how likely he is to call it all off on the river based on that? Very possibly. At $1/$2 a lot of people are "stations" for $25, but most of them find the fold button a lot more often when it's $125.
 
To me it seems like CO could have a T in his hand as well and is using a sort of blocker or feeler bet to see where his is in the hand. We can obviously take hands like KK, QQ, JJ, and KT, out of his range seeing as he's an aggressive player. This feels more like a AT, QT, QJ, or maybe even 9T hand. I'm leaning towards a raise to $55. If Villain calls our re-raise then we should probably check the river even if a blank hits. By calling our re-raise he's committed himself and we're gonna have an almost impossible time getting him to fold anything worse than our hand.
 
DrStrange said:
Second question - what hand could OMC have held that he calls a $12 c-bet from hero but fold to a second $12 bet from the CO after Hero checks the turn?
Click to expand...

Possible QJ and he doesn't feel like he has odds to call his draw anymore? Or maybe JJ and he feels like someone's got a K.
 
I was actually worried about a T hitting the river. Like I said, I was worried about an AT or QT and this would make it harder to get away from. However, I don't think we should ever not value bet this spot. Bet $40 and then go into the tank if you get raised.
 

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