If you live in coastal Texas, it is crunch time (1 Viewer)

[DrStrange]

Hurricane Harvey will strike the South-Central Texas coast in 24 - 36 hours. We don't know how strong the storm will be, but there is every reason to expect a major hurricane and be wary of a catastrophic storm. However those winds are not going to be the biggest deal for most of us.

The rain forecasts are epically mind boggling. I live 150 miles from the coast and have a forecast of six to eighteen inches. There are a handful of PCF members close enough to me to have the same outlook. People closer to the coast might see 24 to 36 inches. No doubt some unlucky souls will see 48+ inches of rain.

How bad it this? Well, I live way up in the hills. There is 0.00 percent chance I'll see flood waters. Even so, I am considering cancelling Saturday poker because the roads are possible flood victims. I think I am among the most fortunate, there will be PCF members facing far more dire risks than my poker game getting rained out.

I have lived through rains like this in Houston decades ago. 30+ inches in a couple of days. Things we thought "impossible" to flood were deep under water. I helped rescue people from second floors or roofs in my canoe. Things get really bad quicker than you think and then it is too late.

Please take proper precautions. The window to buy supplies / evacuate / protect property is closing. Pay attention to the forecasts, a minor change in track can make all the difference in the world.

Emergency managers aren't joking. Take this seriously -=- DrStrange

 

[PhilLaFond]

Well said sir, and most true. I learned a long time ago not to f with Mother Nature. Keeping a good thought for you, your friends and family, and everyone in the path. Stay safe and secure.

 

[abby99]

To all in the affected area: Be smart and stay safe.

 

[abby99]

I can't even imagine 12" of rain much less 24-48".

 

[crussader]

Will be interesting to see if the record is broken.

I'm originally from Alvin, Tx and was there for the record setter in 1979. We got 43" in 24 hours and another 8 or 9 inches in the next 12 hours.

 

[liftapint]

Damn, I wish I could have some of that rain water! I'm sitting here in my cabin in the mountains, being told that I have about 24-48 hours until I will be evacuated, because there is a forest fire headed directly at me. I have 1-2 days to get my house ready for impending fire. What I REALLY REALLY need is some heavy rains.

Isn't life weird sometimes.


edit: Best of luck to you in Texas! The storm sounds like it could be very severe! All I was saying...I wish I could take some of that rain off your hands.

 

[Wils]

Damn, I wish I could have some of that rain water! I'm sitting here in my cabin in the mountains, being told that I have about 24-48 hours until I will be evacuated, because there is a forest fire headed directly at me. I have 1-2 days to get my house ready for impending fire. What I REALLY REALLY need is some heavy rains.

Isn't life weird sometimes.


edit: Best of luck to you in Texas! The storm sounds like it could be very severe! All I was saying...I wish I could take some of that rain off your hands.

Hope you get evacuated without issue (or better still, that you don't need it). Thoughts to you and everyone else who might be affected one way or another.

 

[TheBigTater]

Looks like a boatload of rain/water, be safe down there. Don't play around with this one.

Watching the path, looks like it may hang up and not move on out from SE Texas for a few days before heading on this way. Which means more frickin' water. (n) :thumbsdown:

 

[atomiktoaster]

I'm set to drive home early from work today and stay put until at least Monday. Things will not be fun if the power goes out though. Stay safe everybody and don't think about driving into water.

 

[David O]

Hurricane Harvey will strike the South-Central Texas coast in 24 - 36 hours. We don't know how strong the storm will be, but there is every reason to expect a major hurricane and be wary of a catastrophic storm. However those winds are not going to be the biggest deal for most of us.

The rain forecasts are epically mind boggling. I live 150 miles from the coast and have a forecast of six to eighteen inches. There are a handful of PCF members close enough to me to have the same outlook. People closer to the coast might see 24 to 36 inches. No doubt some unlucky souls will see 48+ inches of rain.

How bad it this? Well, I live way up in the hills. There is 0.00 percent chance I'll see flood waters. Even so, I am considering cancelling Saturday poker because the roads are possible flood victims. I think I am among the most fortunate, there will be PCF members facing far more dire risks than my poker game getting rained out.

I have lived through rains like this in Houston decades ago. 30+ inches in a couple of days. Things we thought "impossible" to flood were deep under water. I helped rescue people from second floors or roofs in my canoe. Things get really bad quicker than you think and then it is too late.

Please take proper precautions. The window to buy supplies / evacuate / protect property is closing. Pay attention to the forecasts, a minor change in track can make all the difference in the world.

Emergency managers aren't joking. Take this seriously -=- DrStrange

Being in the fuel transport business we are in the thick of it. I have been on phone conferences continually since yesterday. Or Manager in Corpus Christi finally evacuated this morning at 7:00 am after shutting down operations. It is going to be a rough few days coming. Most of the major producers have started limiting gas sales. Spot has been completely cut off to the retailers and those with contracts have been reduced to 75% of allocation which is really bad. Fuel will be going up for sure seeing that 1/3 of all production for the US comes from this area of the country.

Anyway I am in San Antonio and we are going to be in the "dirty" side of the storm. We are expecting torrential rains and will definitely have flooding here. I am at my office and can look out my window and see were they are bussing in evacuees across the street. I sure feel sorry for these folks. Anyway I think we should be fine but we should be fine. I do know they are expecting 20+" for the San Antonio area. This will definitely bring some massive flooding to the area.

@DrStrange I saw your email and was thinking about attending but I may just hunker down. My daughter is currently up there by you and hoping there is not too much rain and flooding there. Also the big fight is on Saturday night so I may try to get the kids to all come stay at the house this weekend. I think I would feel more safe if they are all home where I know they are okay.

 

[TheBigTater]

Yep local news is telling folks up here to expect anywhere from a .05c to .25c per gallon price rise prior to Labor Day.

 

[MatB]

to sum it up....

 

[DrStrange]

Friday - day time:

I took a three mile walk at dawn. Lots of clouds from an long dissipated "cold" front but no signs of the impending storm. It is almost comfortable but the humidity is too high.

We have lots and lots of extended family in the potential path of the storm. No one decides it is time to flee even though we hold out the offer of the guest wing of the house. It is now too late to evacuate for those in the Corpus Christi area. The family & friends in Houston and the surrounding area still have a window to leave but I see no reason to expect house guests tonight. ( We had almost a dozen house guests when Ike hit a decade ago + the kids were still at home. Crowded! ) No one seems overly concerned this time around plus they remember the drive from hell a decade ago fleeing the last storm.

By lunch I can feel the first signs of an approaching storm. Forty years of life on or near the coast teaches you the signs - - - the winds are irregular, calm one moment, a breeze the next and gusty all in 15 seconds. The clouds race through the sky in layers. Still no rain, just the threating skies and puffing winds.

We get our first rain at three. It lasts no more than five minutes, but those minutes bring a torrent of rain. A torrent of rain over a few minutes yield a few hundredths of an inch. Literally a drop in the bucket.

My wife decides we need emergency rations. This includes a couple of boxes of Twinkies, proof her priorities are in order.

The forecast is very sensitive to variation. Fifty miles South-East and we barely get enough rain to dent the drought. But bring the storm 50 miles closer to Austin/San Antonio and we get a foot of rain. The various weather outlets are on totally different pages. I think we will just have to wait till tomorrow to see what happens.

Rain outlook - - - 6" to 18"
Poker outlook - - - game for Saturday is still on but everyone is on notice to look for a cancellation
Baseball? - - - We hold tickets for the Tuesday Astro/Ranger game in downtown Houston and plan to cancel the trip tomorrow unless something changes.
Poker chip collection is safe 1,250 feet above sea level.

So far so good, but the real threats are barely on the horizon -=- DrStrange

 

[SixSpeedFury]

To my Texan brethren, be safe. I heard in some spots the water is 16ft. above sea level already....

 

[abby99]

I shuddered when I heard that they are asking people who didn't evacuate certain
areas to write their name and Social Security number on their forearm so they can be identified.

Be safe, everyone.

Poker chip collection is safe 1,250 feet above sea level.

(y) :thumbsup:

 

[David O]

It looks like the big rain is going to be up north of us. I know my daughter is up by San Marcos and they have received much more rain than San Antonio. They are sating that our rains will be much worse on Sunday.

Also had a conference call this morning and there are many stores out of fuel all over. I have heard that there are some neighboring states that are already seeing a $0.20 rise in the fuel prices. I do know that the state ordered one of the refineries closed last night.

I am hunkered down here with my wife and two sons here at the house. Wish my daughter had come down but she is with her BF and reported this morning as safe.

David O

 

[DrStrange]

Saturday noon:

Harvey came ashore as a category 4 storm about 10PM. The mayor who asked citizens sheltering in place to mark their name and social security number on their arm gave good advice. His town is seven feet above sea level looking at a storm surge of 10+ feet, 130 MPH winds and tornadoes. There is no assessment of the damage and injuries yet, but there are reports of severe damage to structures.

Harvey is still a category 1 storm this morning drifting ever closer to us. Winds are picking up with 40+ MPH sustained winds forecast for later today.

It started raining here just past midnight. Now I have three inches of rain in my "gauge" - a five gallon bucket - with room for 18+ inches. I'll need that room given the forecast is for 13 additional inches of rain. So far we have no significant damage and don't really expect any trouble even with an extra foot of rain coming. My house is at the top of a hill and 600 feet higher than San Marcos, eight miles away. Flooding borders on impossible. Lighting poses a threat, but there is almost none { so far, knocking on wood }. Good thing, I lost the water well pump to a strike this spring, something ouchy expensive to replace.

@David O - the poker game for tonight is cancelled. Some of my players are whining about that since the conditions so far are not that bad. But by midnight things could be a lot worse. We had two brushes with death last year coming home from a Saturday night game and I don't want to do that again.

It looks like baseball in Houston Tuesday is a bad idea. Even if the game is played, I worry about flooding on the drive there and back. Plus there is reason to think gasoline might prove hard to find. As David notes above, there are gas shortages now and likely more difficulty in the days to come. I think we will just write off the cost of the tickets and stay put.

Survival rations are holding up fine. There are 17 Twinkies left, plus all the supplies for a Saturday night poker game and everything in the freezer.

PCF members closer to the coast are likely having a far harder time of it. And folks in the greater Houston area are in the cross-hairs for next week. Everyone stay safe.

DrStrange

 

[atomiktoaster]

It's all been pretty fine here. Been raining off and on but not torrential. It sounds like we're going to end up with the third "100 year+" flood in three or four years in a lot of spots closer to Houston, if the forecasts prove right.

 

[duffman]

The power company I work for is being sent down to help with the restoration effort. Stay away from down lines! I've known far too many that have lost their lives. Stay safe!

 

[crussader]

Things you don't think about....

 

[DrStrange]

Sunday noon - - -

Harvey stalled out 75 miles south of here and sat there for a day. Now drifting SSE at two miles an hour. The forecast is three more days of heavy rain with a couple of light days left. The rains should be gone by next weekend.

I have 7.75" of rain so far with ~10" more forecast. My rain gauge/bucket tops out at 14.75" No damage from the winds so far, no water problems, everything is fine here at the top of a hill in the middle of no where.

The lands are awash with runoff water. It is all headed to the sea, through some of the more populated parts of the state. Not too far east of here the rainfall has already exceeded 24" with another 12" - 24" forecast. It is going to be ugly-bad on the upper Texas coast. Houston is already in trouble with the worst yet to come. It is too late to flee the coming floods, all they can do is wait it out.

The friends and family near the point of landfall are physically ok. We think one of the cousins lost her apartment, but will not know for sure until the authorities allow people back into their homes. Family and friends in the Houston area aren't so lucky. Brother-in-law's home is already threatened, the bayou is the edge of their back yard and it is rising slowly. They are bracing for the worst, sheltering in place because no one can drive out due to the roads being cut. Could be we will be having some long term house guests this fall. < crossing fingers & knocking on wood >

The poker gang ran hot and cold over the decision to cancel the game. About half were relieved, other decided to drive to San Antonio and play in the card rooms there. San Antonio hasn't gotten nearly so much rain, so I expect they will be fine.

However, many people aren't going to be fine. Tens of thousands are going to be homeless or at least displaced. It will take years to repair / replace the destruction. Fortunately there likely will not be a lot of injuries / fatalities but there will be some. Not much can be done now, the time for preparation is spent.

DrStrange

 

[crussader]

Just reported locally. Houston has 22 watersheds (bayous, creeks, etc). At every single one, the water has overflowed the banks.

 

[David O]

Just reported locally. Houston has 22 watersheds (bayous, creeks, etc). At every single one, the water has overflowed the banks.

Yes, We ran trucks up until about 7:00 pm. Our drivers were willing to go longer to help everyone and get the stores full of fuel but we decided to shut down until further notice. This was the flooding we were expecting in San Antonio. Prayers for the Houstonians!

 

[DrStrange]

Monday - my last update { I hope }

Harvey is back out at sea. The upper Texas coast is going to get hammered some more, especially Houston. Expect lots of horrible images to come from there as well as heart wrenching / warming stories. They all have days, even weeks of hard times in front of them.

The rain here in the middle of no where Texas has mostly come to an end. I got 8.50", typical for around here. 50 miles east of here they got 25" +/-. Things are fickle like that. I have no damage that I have found so far. We got lucky.

I'll be getting out of the house today. Even places that flooded will be dry by now - our floods are fast and furious. San Marcos and points down river aren't likely going to dry out so fast. Every drop of rain is headed down hill, getting to the sea sooner or later.

Folks still in danger or facing hardship are in my thoughts. I know millions of people are going to have a rough go of it in the days / weeks / years to come.

DrStrange

 

[Wils]

Yes, We ran trucks up until about 7:00 pm. Our drivers were willing to go longer to help everyone and get the stores full of fuel but we decided to shut down until further notice. This was the flooding we were expecting in San Antonio. Prayers for the Houstonians!

I know folks in San Antonio - what's it like there now?

 

[David O]

I know folks in San Antonio - what's it like there now?

San Antonio is doing well. We ended up getting through this almost unscathed. No torrential rains but a constant light rain and windy.

David

 

[fish72s]

Things you don't think about....

View attachment 117794

I heard Harvey has also spawned a few tornados;

Gator-nado !

 

[crussader]

I heard Harvey has also spawned a few tornados;

There are always a few minor tornados. Some minor damage, no serious injuries so far.

 

[crussader]

...Expect lots of horrible images to come from there as well as heart wrenching / warming stories.

Speaking of images, people love to show images of freeways completely covered in water. Most don't know that this is by design. Roads in the area are increasingly designed to take on water first to try to keep the water out of residences and businesses.

 

[DJ Mack]

There are always a few minor tornados. Some minor damage, no serious injuries so far.

Only in Texas are there "always" a few "minor" tornadoes. Up here any tornado is always a BFD! Stay safe y'all.