Tourney Freaky Poker Math II - The Suckout!

GimmieUChips

Sitting Out
Joined
Jan 9, 2017
Messages
38
Reaction score
36
Location
Dallas, TX
"Scabs304: Anyways yes you were ahead mathmatically but he was ahead on the board"

Quick hand: Pot Limit Omaha

You hold: 6s 7s Td Jd - flop is 8s 9s 4c - Good hand against my 2c 2h Kd 3s. You are a 67.57% favorite to win the hand pre-flop. But, the 2c 2h has you beat right now.

Flop is: 8s 9s 4c -

Math says the 67 - TJ (Straight Flush draw and two – open ended straight draws) about 83% - but the hand is still very clearly behind the 2c 2h is it not? It is beat by the 2 2 right now. Is it not?

Outs: 24 – 8 spades, 3 - 5’s, 3 – Q’s, 3 – 6’s, 3 – 7’s, 2 – Tens, and 2 – Jacks. Any of those cards puts your hand in front. You would like all your money in the pot against hands like mine all the time. But at this point, you are behind. You are beat unless your hand improves. You are a 4:1 favorite.

Turn - Ad

Math says the 67 TJ is still about 62%. And, you would want your money in the pot against my hand. You still have 24 outs with one card to come. But, no matter how you slice this up. You have to hit one of your outs to win. You are behind in the hand. Isn’t that true?

River – Ac I win the hand with Two Pair – Ad Ac 2c 2h to your Ad Ac Jack High.

The 2/2 was always ahead, it had the other hand beat all the way, AND it was always a mathematical dog until the river card was turned over. But, the other hand had to get lucky to hit one of its out and win.

You see if I am holding the 2/2, and I get the maximum amount of chips in the pot on the flop, and after 4th street, and then you hit your hand on the river - - - - didn’t you suck out?

You were a mathematical favorite but I was ahead all the way. Luckily for me, my better hand held up and you didn’t suck out on me.

So, like scabs said, you CAN get head, and NOT be a mathematical favorite.

Can any of you deny that the 2/2 wasn’t always ahead in this hand? Pre-flop the 6s 7s and Td Jd was a mathematical favorite. You would always want your money in with a mathematical favorite. But the hand still had to hit one of the 25 outs to win. After the flop, your hand got better! You were a 83% favorite to win the hand! But, at that point in the hand, you are still behind. Your hand was the mathematical favorite, but you needed to hit one of your outs to win.

So, forget everything else. You are a fish and a chaser. You were trying to suckout on me the whole hand. If you had hit your hand on the river, you would have sucked out and I could rightfully call you a Douche Bag and a Fish. So forget all that poker math.

You were never better than 50 / 50 to win. You would have either hit, or not. I was never behind more than 50%. I was either going to win, or you were going to suckout.

This hand really happened to me. This exact hand. I was the one drawing though. I had the wrap. We got all-in on the Turn. My 15,000 chips to his 16,000 chips. When the hand was over, he says to me. “GG….Stupid Fish!” I thought, “F*** Poker Math”
 

BGinGA

Royal Flush
Tourney Director
Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 29, 2014
Messages
25,696
Reaction score
39,830
Location
Atlanta
It's not sucking out if you were a mathematical favorite to win.
 

Gobbs

3 of a Kind
Joined
Aug 26, 2017
Messages
665
Reaction score
675
Location
Atlanta
I can't tell if the OP is serious, has just found a different way to tell a bad beat story, or is trying to be funny???? Either way, it's unique.
 

GimmieUChips

Sitting Out
Joined
Jan 9, 2017
Messages
38
Reaction score
36
Location
Dallas, TX
Of course I am not serious. It was funny at the time and my buddies quote "Scabs304: Anyways yes you were ahead mathematically but he was ahead on the board" has a little truth in that. The whole thing was funny to me, what Scabs said, loosing the hand to 22, and getting called a fish. It was one of those flops that is impossible to lose with. Oh, wait, that's not possible either... And BTW, the guy that called me a fish was kidding too. He was drinking. lol
 
Top Bottom