Covid19 in the house. Drat.

Leonard

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Dude, you just scared the crap out of me. So glad to hear the positive news is continuing!

Just seeing this thread but I had the same reaction to reading that particular post. Great news that everyone is recovering well. Keep up the good work.
 

nightbird

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Just seeing this thread but I had the same reaction to reading that particular post. Great news that everyone is recovering well. Keep up the good work.
Same here. And then i got scared again when I saw @inca911’s post.
Glad to hear you and the Mrs are doing better doc. Wishing you a happy and healthy new year and looking forward to reading many more of your interesting posts.
 

BonScot

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Just announced half an hour ago that’s Scotland now into a legally enforceable lockdown until February at the earliest (rumoured to be lasting until April).

Not allowed to leave the house other than for groceries, exercise or essential work. Fines to be handed out if you’re caught breaching the rules.

Schools and colleges off and all non food / medicine stores closed. All restaurants, pubs, anything else you can think of closed.

2021 is turning into 2020’s big brother.
 

slisk250

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Just announced half an hour ago that’s Scotland now into a legally enforceable lockdown until February at the earliest (rumoured to be lasting until April).

Not allowed to leave the house other than for groceries, exercise or essential work. Fines to be handed out if you’re caught breaching the rules.

Schools and colleges off and all non food / medicine stores closed. All restaurants, pubs, anything else you can think of closed.

2021 is turning into 2020’s big brother.
That was my world from March through June last year. Then I was lucky enough to be laid off and deported. Glad to lock down at Rosie’s.
 

Colquhoun

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Just announced half an hour ago that’s Scotland now into a legally enforceable lockdown until February at the earliest (rumoured to be lasting until April).

Not allowed to leave the house other than for groceries, exercise or essential work. Fines to be handed out if you’re caught breaching the rules.

Schools and colleges off and all non food / medicine stores closed. All restaurants, pubs, anything else you can think of closed.

2021 is turning into 2020’s big brother.
Sorry to hear, be safe.
And buy extra toilet paper.
 

RainmanTrail

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Just announced half an hour ago that’s Scotland now into a legally enforceable lockdown until February at the earliest (rumoured to be lasting until April).

Not allowed to leave the house other than for groceries, exercise or essential work. Fines to be handed out if you’re caught breaching the rules.

Schools and colleges off and all non food / medicine stores closed. All restaurants, pubs, anything else you can think of closed.

2021 is turning into 2020’s big brother.

Oof. I'm sorry to hear that. Stay safe. I sure wish these politicians and policymakers would research this shit better. It's like they've learned absolutely nothing from the last 10+ months worth of random experiments all across the globe.
 

BonScot

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Oof. I'm sorry to hear that. Stay safe. I sure wish these politicians and policymakers would research this shit better. It's like they've learned absolutely nothing from the last 10+ months worth of random experiments all across the globe.
It’s rumoured that England is going to announce a lockdown tonight. This new variant is going crazy in London. We’re apparently 4 weeks behind them and our infection rate is a quarter of London’s so they’re saying that the Scottish lockdown is preventative. We’ll see...
 

Coyote

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Dear Doc, I hadn't noticed this thread.
My warmest wishes to you and your wife for a happy and healthy new year!:):)
Very glad it all went smooth!
 

allforcharity

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I hear snippets that the "UK variant" might possibly be more infectious. The evolutionary drive of viruses is to increase their infective ability and decrease their lethality (in the general scheme of things). This is likely how SARS-Cov will play out in the years and decades ahead.
 

BonScot

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I hear snippets that the "UK variant" might possibly be more infectious. The evolutionary drive of viruses is to increase their infective ability and decrease their lethality (in the general scheme of things). This is likely how SARS-Cov will play out in the years and decades ahead.
50 to 70% more transmissible but just as lethal as the older variant. Capable of increasing the R number by 0.7
The South African one is the one to be scared of apparently. Even higher transmissibility and deadlier than the two other variants.

That’s England, Wales and Northern Ireland joined Scotland in a full lockdown. Oh well...
 

wolfpack

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However the vacine still protects against the new varient beuae it target the same spike proteins.
 

RainmanTrail

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50 to 70% more transmissible but just as lethal as the older variant. Capable of increasing the R number by 0.7
The South African one is the one to be scared of apparently. Even higher transmissibility and deadlier than the two other variants.

That’s England, Wales and Northern Ireland joined Scotland in a full lockdown. Oh well...
They can't possibly know this yet though. It's too early to say it's just as deadly. I'd wager money on it being less deadly.
 

WedgeRock

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My wife has passed her quarantine day, meaning she is free to leave the house unless she is running a fever. No one has run a fever, so there you go. She can go full party animal. Maybe even drink a half glass of champagne. Who knows? Maybe she will make it to 11:00 this year.

I still have a week to go before I can see the public. It is still a "mild cold" to me. Aside from this no taste / no smell thing. My wife is getting her taste back slowly - she can taste capers now. But not me. Capers vs green peas? What is the difference.

The long waited prime rib is on the menu for tonight. I am hoping I can taste the horseradish..

It is about as good as it could be -=- DrStrange

PS a visitation of poker Gods past . . . The Cougar, God bless his soul

Alright, dammit. My heart dropped with the first four words I read... I think an edit is in order.

Glad to hear the wife made it through quarantine. I hope your are back to normal soon.
 

BonScot

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They can't possibly know this yet though. It's too early to say it's just as deadly. I'd wager money on it being less deadly.
75% of people in England testing positive have the new variant.
50% of people testing positive in Scotland have the new variant.
Now more people in hospital than the last peak in April.
Deaths not as proportionally high as last peak but they’re saying that’s due to better initial treatment. Also a lot of the seriously infirm died in the first wave.
Still 550-600 dying a day in UK and they’re saying mortality rate of new variant is the same as original variant.
Don’t think they’re making that up...

5 people I know tested positive today. I only knew of 3 who had it before. My mum’s cousin died from it at Christmas and a couple of friends have lost people over the weekend. It does seem worse than the last wave.
 
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The assumption that this will evolve to be less deadly is a guess at best. The long presymptomatic transmission stage means that there is very little selective pressure to decrease mortality. It won't kill the host before mass transmission occurs, it will kill the host weeks after that, long after the damage is done.

The real kicker of the newer variant is that the increased R0 means that the heard immunity threshold has increased significantly. We will need an even higher portion of the population to get vaccinated to end this, and I just picture too many people refusing the jab to ever accomplish that.
 

JMC9389

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Just to cheer everyone up further...

On the news tonight. There’s a suggestion that the Pfizer vaccine may not be effective against the South African variant. Testing is underway and a lot more tests to be done but the early results don’t look great.
Bite your tongue. This would be a disaster.
 

JScott

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Just to cheer everyone up further...

On the news tonight. There’s a suggestion that the Pfizer vaccine may not be effective against the South African variant. Testing is underway and a lot more tests to be done but the early results don’t look great.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-africa-55531838
I’d say that’s just more msm fear. The vaccine looks to be effective, and at least capable of reducing severity even with the SA variant from all I’ve read.

the concern is theoretical and the media just blows it up.
 
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BonScot

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I’d say that’s just more msm fear. The vaccine looks to be effective, and at least capable of reducing severity even with the SA variant from all I’ve read.

the concern is theoretical and the media just blows it up.
To be fair they never blew it up or made a big thing of it. They asked the question and the scientist’s response was that early testing led them to believe that the UK variant can be treated with the same vaccine but that the SA variant has mutated several more steps and MAY be resistant to the vaccine. Time will tell.
 

RainmanTrail

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To be fair they never blew it up or made a big thing of it. They asked the question and the scientist’s response was that early testing led them to believe that the UK variant can be treated with the same vaccine but that the SA variant has mutated several more steps and MAY be resistant to the vaccine. Time will tell.
I think we have every reason to believe that it will be protected against by the vaccine. That would certainly be the null hypothesis. It may prove otherwise, but that'd be quite the long shot from my understanding.
 

BonScot

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I think we have every reason to believe that it will be protected against by the vaccine. That would certainly be the null hypothesis. It may prove otherwise, but that'd be quite the long shot from my understanding.
From what I understand (I studied chemistry so I’ve asked biochemist friends to explain it to me in idiot terms) the current vaccines would cover 5 or 6 mutation “steps”. They are saying that the SA variant MAY have mutated beyond that. It’s all to do with genome tracking. If it is the case that the SA variant has mutated beyond the vaccines’ capabilities then they need to amend the vaccines to catch up with the mutations. Apparently that won’t be as involved as designing vaccines from scratch but will still take some time.
 
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