In theory, ICM chops should yield you roughly the same amount of $$$ long-term as playing it out would... But with less variance and less of a time-commitment.
It’s immediate insurance against end-of-game runbad when your sample size is small. I mean, who among us really can say that we final table tournaments so often that we are certain to realize our true equity over a 1-2 year period?
Unless you truly believe you have some massive edge against the remaining 1-8 people, I think at least discussing a chop is always the way to go. Even a massive edge can run into some ugly variance.
So: I don’t necessarily buy that chops automatically reflect some flaw in the tournament structure, payouts, player pool, etc. Sure, some of those factors may contribute to chopping/not chopping. But I still think as a general rule one should at least discuss options, almost regardless of the dynamic.
Another issue is stack sizes: If you get down to say 3-5 players all with roughly equal stacks, and none of these is an obvious fish who only got there by running like a god who will not be able to adjust to shorthanded/shortstacked play, and you’re not looking to get points or Hendon Mob cred, why not chop?
The only other reason I would have not to would be just for fun/experience, if the money were not important.
It’s immediate insurance against end-of-game runbad when your sample size is small. I mean, who among us really can say that we final table tournaments so often that we are certain to realize our true equity over a 1-2 year period?
Unless you truly believe you have some massive edge against the remaining 1-8 people, I think at least discussing a chop is always the way to go. Even a massive edge can run into some ugly variance.
So: I don’t necessarily buy that chops automatically reflect some flaw in the tournament structure, payouts, player pool, etc. Sure, some of those factors may contribute to chopping/not chopping. But I still think as a general rule one should at least discuss options, almost regardless of the dynamic.
Another issue is stack sizes: If you get down to say 3-5 players all with roughly equal stacks, and none of these is an obvious fish who only got there by running like a god who will not be able to adjust to shorthanded/shortstacked play, and you’re not looking to get points or Hendon Mob cred, why not chop?
The only other reason I would have not to would be just for fun/experience, if the money were not important.
