Best exploitive river size versus aggro villain out of position? (2 Viewers)

MrCatPants

MrCatPants

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Not a GTO question - an exploitable question.

When you are heads up with an aggro maniac and have what's likely the winning hand, what strategy do you find more effective against a player who has been involved in betting/calling multiple streets? On the river, out of position.

Smaller bets to induce crying calls and some bluffy/thin value raises perceiving weakness on your part?

Larger bets to look polarized against an active villian, but risk higher fold rates?

Which approach have you generally seen be more effective?
 
It all depends on the buildup and the story you're trying to tell.

Have the nuts or 99% sure you have the winning hand? I tend to go larger against stations/aggro players and go more for value sizing against solvers/tight players.
 
I think it depends on the villain. Are they more likely to believe you are trying to buy them off the hand. If so, they'll pay you off with top or middle pair and a large bet. Do they only call with 2 pair +, and even then get scared when better hands are possible? Maybe a smaller bet is better here. I mean, you still to mix it up a little, but it really comes down to the Who and the story being told
 
To add additional context, this is a long haul question - home game player you'll see a situation or two a game against for years.

Villain has a fold button, but is a disbelieving aggro player where light calls of "I can't fold for such a reasonable bet" and raise bluffs are both possible.
 
OOP with a likely winner against an aggro maniac on the end, it depends on how you assess your opponent's hand.

If you expect him to have a busted draw or extremely weak hand, check with the intention of calling ("value check").

If you expect him to have a marginal hand that has actual showdown value, a small bet may be better, as he may check back if you check it.

But these are just general thoughts. Really, it comes down to the specific tendencies of your villain. Pay attention to when he chooses to be aggressive.

For example, some players are super-LAG on early rounds but all value on later rounds, some are LAG from beginning to end, and so on across the spectrum. Some can't resist coming over the top of a tiny bet. Some will reliably bet any time they've been checked to twice in a row. Watch for these specific leaks and exploit them as appropriate.
 
Exploitatively a couple of my favorite lines (if I'm, say, 80% sure I have the winning hand)
- The "blocker bet" to induce a raise. IE something like $15 into a $100 pot - most people perceive this as a weak play with a marginal strength hand, whereas I'm actually hoping to get raised to $80 or $100 etc. Often a missed draw will see this as an opp. to bluff steal the pot and you just value call them.
- The river overbet - ie something like $150 into $100. This obviously works best if you have some history and have balanced it by showing at least one (preferably smaller pot) overbet bluff earlier in the night

- The best rate on return sizing on the river is probably in the 50-66% pot bet in my experience, but that's def. less exploitative
 
I usually bet treefifty.

Some of the time you should bet big. Some of the time you should be small. Some of the time you should check.

When bet or raised, some of the time you should reraise, some of the time you should call, and probably a small some of the time you should fold.

For exact percentages of the some of the times please consult better experts or provide more situational details. For instance, what is the villain doing with his feet?
 
Highli99 said:
I usually bet treefifty.

Some of the time you should bet big. Some of the time you should be small. Some of the time you should check.

When bet or raised, some of the time you should reraise, some of the time you should call, and probably a small some of the time you should fold.

For exact percentages of the some of the times please consult better experts or provide more situational details. For instance, what is the villain doing with his feet?
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Says the guy who likes to get $$ in bad and bink. :ROFL: :ROFLMAO: :cool
 
krafticus said:
Says the guy who likes to get $$ in bad and bink. :ROFL: :ROFLMAO: :cool
Click to expand...
I just like big pots and I find most people are more willing to put chips in when ahead, so it's a small price to pay for the action! I do focus my study on how to bink rivers, in particular.
 
Ok. Here's a hand from last night to give a more concrete example.

Hero is 600BB effective. Villian has 1000BB. PLO

Aggro villain raises blind UTG to 4BB.
HJ calls 4BB.
Hero raises blind to 8BB
Folds to aggro villain who looks and then raises to 12BB.
HJ folds.
Hero looks down at :qs::qc::jh::js: and raises to 24BB
Villain calls.

Pot is 54BB

Flop comes :qd::9s::4h:

Villian checks.
Hero bets 40BB
Villain calls.

Pot is 134 BB

Turn brings :qd::9s::4h::3s:

Villian checks.
Hero bets 80 BB
Villain calls.

Pot is 214 BB

River is :qd::9s::4h::3s::6d:

Villain checks.

Action on hero.
 
MrCatPants said:
Give me credit :) I'm not that kind of poster. There's like a 1% chance villain has top end or bottom end of that straight here.
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Forgot this wasn't a strategy thread lol

I think you're line Is perfectly fine. You're going to have aces and kings a lot here and have sets only sometimes with the queens given the action.

I go with a 2/3 to 3/4 pot size bet again and groan call but be happy when villain shoves with his not giving you credit for top set two pair or second best set.
 
Bet the minimum. Aggros never fold or just call to a river min-bet. What to do when they raise is the real question.
 
1/3 pot for value - you blocking top set and tj / straight draws. i think try to get paid at least and if villain is spazzy may raise you with weak bet if he's holding two pair / set.
 
MrCatPants said:
Not a GTO question - an exploitable question.

When you are heads up with an aggro maniac and have what's likely the winning hand, what strategy do you find more effective against a player who has been involved in betting/calling multiple streets? On the river, out of position.

Smaller bets to induce crying calls and some bluffy/thin value raises perceiving weakness on your part?

Larger bets to look polarized against an active villian, but risk higher fold rates?

Which approach have you generally seen be more effective?
Click to expand...
I think the best way to exploit these players when out of position is to check and call a lot.

I will even do this with above average strength. I tend to only get aggro with aggros with near-nutty holdings. Otherwise I find it's best to keep them in the lead.

Now if I think opposition is capable of checking rivers then I need to rethink the classification of that villain as an aggro and I might have to bet my hand a little more often. But if I think he's only checking back say less than 20%,I think I make more by keeping villain in the lead.
 
MrCatPants said:
. Here's a hand from last night to give a more concrete example.
Click to expand...
Okay now I see there's an example post.

MrCatPants said:
Aggro villain raises blind UTG to 4BB.
HJ calls 4BB.
Hero raises blind to 8BB
Folds to aggro villain who looks and then raises to 12BB.
HJ folds.
Hero looks down at :qs::qc::jh::js: and raises to 24BB
Villain calls.
Click to expand...
I guess I question if this is a good 3-bet hand or 5-bet hand for that matter two high pair connected and single suited probably worth calling a loose raiser, but we don't block any aces nor are the spades likely to make the nuts.

I also tend to 3-bet aggro players far less preflop.

MrCatPants said:
Flop comes :qd::9s::4h:

Villian checks.
Hero bets 40BB
Villain calls.

Pot is 134 BB

Turn brings :qd::9s::4h::3s:

Villian checks.
Hero bets 80 BB
Villain calls.

Pot is 214 BB

River is :qd::9s::4h::3s::6d:

Villain checks.

Action on hero.
Click to expand...
Oh I see, villian is only aggro preflop. Post flop he's a check monster.

As for this river if you are assuming he's checking back anything inferior to three queens I could see the case to bet yourself. I would go 50bb or so if I decided on this. However, I think this hand is a bad bet-fold candidate, I would sooner check and call. So I am saying don't bet if you are are going to make a hero lay down.

I wouldn't assume too many straights are out there, but at the same time, my guess is this villian is playing all kinds of Aaxx and KKXx this way, so it's possible he backed into a 75.
 
JustinInMN said:
I guess I question if this is a good 3-bet hand or 5-bet hand for that matter two high pair connected and single suited probably worth calling a loose raiser, but we don't block any aces nor are the spades likely to make the nuts.

I also tend to 3-bet aggro players far less preflop.
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It's a 3-bet. Villain here is likely raising with anything once he looks. But I hear you. Pretty, but even a K high uncoordinated flop freezes this hand completely.
 
JustinInMN said:
Oh I see, villian is only aggro preflop. Post flop he's a check monster.

As for this river if you are assuming he's checking back anything inferior to three queens I could see the case to bet yourself. I would go 50bb or so if I decided on this. However, I think this hand is a bad bet-fold candidate, I would sooner check and call. So I am saying don't bet if you are are going to make a hero lay down.

I wouldn't assume too many straights are out there, but at the same time, my guess is this villian is playing all kinds of Aaxx and KKXx this way, so it's possible he backed into a 75.
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He's aggro but also not a bad player. Out of position when he's on a draw or super strong he'll check.

Real hand: Hero bets 80BB. Villain takes the bait in this case and raises to 350BB. Hero as you said bet with the intention to call any raise, the odds of backing into a straight here are super low and it's much more likely he is trying to get me off a two pair or missed straight with a pair type of hand.

I call, ask him if he has a straight, and he says no. I say if that's true then I win. He asks if I have a queen and he mucks. I show the two queens for good measure.
 
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