Where Have all the Chips Gone? (5 Viewers)

[TKEUofM]

So I joined the site just over 6 years ago. Back then it seemed like there were so many different chips and playable sets for sale and constantly moving between members. I bought and sold several sets, participated in Chip Room buys, and always seemed to have an option for something new/different.

- Boat sets
- Big Top Poker
- Cocaine Giraffes
- Isle Cape G
- Binions
- All of the sets from the Chip Room.... seems like it's been forever since a major set was released (Jack Detroit, HSI, etc).

Do you think a lot of this is due to one person literally buying over 400,000 chips, hoarding them, and then disappearing? Or is it because a ton of people put in orders to CPC and try to get a custom set before the ownership change.

Seems like like a lot of sets have hit the vaults and are not moving. Or am I just crazy?

Thoughts?

 

[Cratty]

So I joined the site just over 6 years ago. Back then it seemed like there were so many different chips and playable sets for sale and constantly moving between members. I bought and sold several sets, participated in Chip Room buys, and always seemed to have an option for something new/different.

- Boat sets
- Big Top Poker
- Cocaine Giraffes
- Isle Cape G
- Binions
- All of the sets from the Chip Room.... seems like it's been forever since a major set was released (Jack Detroit, HSI, etc).

Do you think a lot of this is due to one person literally buying over 400,000 chips, hoarding them, and then disappearing? Or is it because a ton of people put in orders to CPC and try to get a custom set before the ownership change.

Seems like like a lot of sets have hit the vaults and are not moving. Or am I just crazy?

Thoughts?

Probably a few factors at play, but one I don’t see discussed much is the housing market analogy. During COVID, you had a surge in demand combined with limited supply, which drove prices up quickly. Chips followed a similar pattern - more buyers, fewer available sets, and prices got pushed to levels that, in hindsight, were probably inflated.

Now we’re on the other side of that. Demand has cooled, supply is effectively “locked up,” and a lot of owners are anchored to those higher purchase prices. Just like in housing, rather than sell at a loss, people hold - reducing transaction volume and making the market feel stagnant even if underlying interest is still there.

So it’s not that sets disappeared, but likely moreso they’ve become illiquid.

But yeah, for sure impacts from more NAGBs, declining likely overall poker interest (need another major hit movie to push), CPC sale and wave of buying there, etc.

 

[Tommy]

@ovo has them.

 

[upNdown]

Probably a few factors at play, but one I don’t see discussed much is the housing market analogy. During COVID, you had a surge in demand combined with limited supply, which drove prices up quickly. Chips followed a similar pattern - more buyers, fewer available sets, and prices got pushed to levels that, in hindsight, were probably inflated.

Now we’re on the other side of that. Demand has cooled, supply is effectively “locked up,” and a lot of owners are anchored to those higher purchase prices. Just like in housing, rather than sell at a loss, people hold - reducing transaction volume and making the market feel stagnant even if underlying interest is still there.

So it’s not that sets disappeared, but likely moreso they’ve become illiquid.

But yeah, for sure impacts from more NAGBs, declining likely overall poker interest (need another major hit movie to push), CPC sale and wave of buying there, etc.

Yes. There are plenty of reasons, but the inflation we saw due to covid (and due to that one person) is the first one that came to my mind.

 

[TikiTeddy]

I was just thinking about this as I get more and more into chips. What/When is the next Tiger Palace or Aurora Stars? It seems like GB of that magnitude disappeared.

 

[doublebooyah85]

So I joined the site just over 6 years ago. Back then it seemed like there were so many different chips and playable sets for sale and constantly moving between members. I bought and sold several sets, participated in Chip Room buys, and always seemed to have an option for something new/different.

- Boat sets
- Big Top Poker
- Cocaine Giraffes
- Isle Cape G
- Binions
- All of the sets from the Chip Room.... seems like it's been forever since a major set was released (Jack Detroit, HSI, etc).

Do you think a lot of this is due to one person literally buying over 400,000 chips, hoarding them, and then disappearing? Or is it because a ton of people put in orders to CPC and try to get a custom set before the ownership change.

Seems like like a lot of sets have hit the vaults and are not moving. Or am I just crazy?

Thoughts?

The hobby blew up and a lot more collectors came in. Hodl and enjoy. @Cratty housing example is a good analogy but there’s also just as many people that may not sell even if they got what they paid for etc

 

[QuailValley]

I think there are a few additional points not yet discussed. Pre-COVID it was more affordable to get a higher quality set or two (or more), with the inflated prices the middle of the market was effectively priced out, myself included. Many of us just wanted a nicer set of chips than the cheap walmart chips or even a step up from slugs.

By the time I had joined this group the prices of the real clay sets were astronomical, compared to anything I wanted to spend. Looking back at the forum before I joined the prices for a clay set wasnt that crazy. But I joined in 2021 which was kind of peak in a few ways. But by then people were just starting to buy the custom ceramic sets from China. the Tina group buys were starting but still fairly sporadic. And artwork was still fairly limited. Now we have a vendor on the front page who is functionally doing monthly group buys and the amount of designs available is huge. So a lot of people have naturally gravitated towards that as their primary option.
.

 

[roughrabbit]

TDIL PCF has a boogeyman in its history

 

[elPadroni]

I'm new. Whats the backstory on this person that bought 400K chips and disappeared?!

Also, I used to be big into collecting limited edition patches and some EDC stuff. We experienced a similar COVID boom in that hobby. Excess funds, more free time and interest drove prices up. Similarly, that hobby is now experiencing the same market shift. A patch that I sold for $2k a couple years ago (yes, ONE patch ) recently sold for about $450.

Funny enough, we also had a similar situation where this dude from Indiana embezzled money from a fake "charter" school he created and used funds to buy up all sorts of patches, driving prices up and he hoarded. I actually don't know if the government seized those after they caught up to him lol.

 

[BigGrizz]

Inflation has locked many of us out of the clay market. Tina customs are now the go to for most people who want a nice set but can't spend car downpayments for chips. I think that the public perception here is also going to have to shift to not seeing Tina chips as dirt from their ivory towers. Otherwise growth will likely stagnate.

 

[upNdown]

I'm new. Whats the backstory on this person that bought 400K chips and disappeared?!

Also, I used to be big into collecting limited edition patches and some EDC stuff. We experienced a similar COVID boom in that hobby. Excess funds, more free time and interest drove prices up. Similarly, that hobby is now experiencing the same market shift. A patch that I sold for $2k a couple years ago (yes, ONE patch ) recently sold for about $450.

Funny enough, we also had a similar situation where this dude from Indiana embezzled money from a fake "charter" school he created and used funds to buy up all sorts of patches, driving prices up and he hoarded. I actually don't know if the government seized those after they caught up to him lol.

In mid 2020 (so yes, during the covid inflation of every silly hobby,) very rich man named @Windwalker showed up and bought everything he saw. Once he figured out what he liked (the really good stuff) he started offering money well over market value. People kinda ripped him off by selling at even higher prices, which seemed to encourage him to buy even more chips at crazy prices. Or something like that.

 

[Kam]

I'm new. Whats the backstory on this person that bought 400K chips and disappeared?!

Also, I used to be big into collecting limited edition patches and some EDC stuff. We experienced a similar COVID boom in that hobby. Excess funds, more free time and interest drove prices up. Similarly, that hobby is now experiencing the same market shift. A patch that I sold for $2k a couple years ago (yes, ONE patch ) recently sold for about $450.

Funny enough, we also had a similar situation where this dude from Indiana embezzled money from a fake "charter" school he created and used funds to buy up all sorts of patches, driving prices up and he hoarded. I actually don't know if the government seized those after they caught up to him lol.

https://www.pokerchipforum.com/threads/windwalker’s-chipping-journey-in-pr0n0graph1c-detail.60841/

 

[elemeno]

I'm new. Whats the backstory on this person that bought 400K chips and disappeared?!

Also, I used to be big into collecting limited edition patches and some EDC stuff. We experienced a similar COVID boom in that hobby. Excess funds, more free time and interest drove prices up. Similarly, that hobby is now experiencing the same market shift. A patch that I sold for $2k a couple years ago (yes, ONE patch ) recently sold for about $450.

Funny enough, we also had a similar situation where this dude from Indiana embezzled money from a fake "charter" school he created and used funds to buy up all sorts of patches, driving prices up and he hoarded. I actually don't know if the government seized those after they caught up to him lol.

What do you mean patches? Like sew on or iron on patches? Can you show me an example of a grail patch?

 

[elemeno]

https://www.pokerchipforum.com/threads/windwalker’s-chipping-journey-in-pr0n0graph1c-detail.60841/

That’s an amazing collection. Why did he leave? If I had a hobby that I was as passionate about, I’d stick around the hobby’s forum/community.

 

[Jeevansluck]

Probably a few factors at play, but one I don’t see discussed much is the housing market analogy. During COVID, you had a surge in demand combined with limited supply, which drove prices up quickly. Chips followed a similar pattern - more buyers, fewer available sets, and prices got pushed to levels that, in hindsight, were probably inflated.

Now we’re on the other side of that. Demand has cooled, supply is effectively “locked up,” and a lot of owners are anchored to those higher purchase prices. Just like in housing, rather than sell at a loss, people hold - reducing transaction volume and making the market feel stagnant even if underlying interest is still there.

So it’s not that sets disappeared, but likely moreso they’ve become illiquid.

But yeah, for sure impacts from more NAGBs, declining likely overall poker interest (need another major hit movie to push), CPC sale and wave of buying there, etc.

Great post!

I’m literally done selling because I paid exorbitant prices for most of what I have now, and I’ll be damned if I’m gonna lose money because I timed my buys wrong.

I’d prefer to die with them in this case.

This is why, I don’t sell or buy a dam thing. I’m all about trying to wear out mint chips now. All my sets are in rotation. May as well use them. Money lost on them is no different than losing in poker for me. I’ve gotten over the cost as time has passed. I could care less if they became worthless.

It also seems the market is absolutely inundated with Paulsons. They seem to be hitting the classifieds like Tina’s. I’d venture to say we are experiencing market saturation for fantasy Paulsons. Maybe I’m just dumb.

Keep calm, and chip on.

 

[justsomedude]

I was just thinking about this as I get more and more into chips. What/When is the next Tiger Palace or Aurora Stars? It seems like GB of that magnitude disappeared.

One of the biggest hindrances right now is Paul-son/GPI/Angel has eliminated some of the most desirable edge spot options from their offerings.

It seems they have some wiggle room there, and they'll make them happen "if the price is right," but for regular NAGBs aiming for standard MOQs it's just a no-go. Which makes all the pain and hassle of working to make an NAGB happen even less attractive.

Add in the current chip price gully, and you have yourself a real pickle.

 

[btbmason]

I thought the market was saturated? There was a whole thread about it, and another one about Van Halen or something.

Most hobbies ebb and flow with the economy. I won’t dive into the politics of that statement. A lot of people are cutting back on a lot of things, hobbies included.

Most people are prideful and won’t sell at a loss unless they’re desperate, or they just actually enjoy what they have and don’t want to get rid of it. Some people just buy and disappear from here forever. Those are the smart ones.

 

[BarrieJ3]

I joined/became active same time.

For awhile I felt like the only chipper. Anything I wanted was available. Auctions were dirt cheap. There were windows/months where I bought/sold a set every week.

Several times I bought and overnighted a set to use specifically for a game that came up, and of course sold it the next day.

The site was of course slightly smaller, most people posting knew each other in passing or of each other, and while there were no rules outside of the extremely loose ToS, the community self regulated.

There were people with money, but no one publicly acted in a “I’ll pay anything for xyz” manner, and honestly back then even if they did, the probably would’ve been hamstringing themselves and the community wouldn’t have sold to them intentionally.

Time passes.

Many more members. Prices slightly increased. Tommy and co are much more vigilant on maintaining the laissez faire marketplace than before. Sure, WW appears, but so do all the mini WWs.

Suddenly, PCF is without shame. Everyone needs to make their $1. Chips are bought and held specifically to make money off others. Threads of “do you care who you sell to” are created and the answer is a unanimous “no”. Pcfers regularly screw each other, go missing for months, don’t follow through on purchases - no more pitchforks.

Suddenly there is no such thing as “market price”. There’s what you paid, what you could get, and what an asinine price would be.

Why did chips stop moving?

Well, because Bob paid way too much and now would have to take a loss to sell. He ain’t selling.

Well, because Bob paid way too little and now the price is high enough that he’d never get them back. He ain’t selling.

Well, because a mini WW HAD to have what Bob has, and paid out the nose for them to someone else, so Bob is going to hold his until someone else offers that price again. He ain’t selling.

Well, because Bob doesn’t like to screw over people, and just wants back what he paid. But he’s been f*cked by pcfers not honoring fror or flipping. He ain’t selling.

 

[doublebooyah85]

Are that many people not selling bc they r going to lose a few hundred dollars? Maybe a thousand? If people need money they will sell.

I think the hobby grew. Supply doesn’t meet demand. I’ve been saying this since the day I joined lol. There’s been small market factors. Covid money, WW, Tina chips etc. sure but…ultimately…more collectors than coveted chips and recently less casinos closing or changing hands.

 

[BarrieJ3]

I joined/became active same time.

For awhile I felt like the only chipper. Anything I wanted was available. Auctions were dirt cheap. There were windows/months where I bought/sold a set every week.

Several times I bought and overnighted a set to use specifically for a game that came up, and of course sold it the next day.

The site was of course slightly smaller, most people posting knew each other in passing or of each other, and while there were no rules outside of the extremely loose ToS, the community self regulated.

There were people with money, but no one publicly acted in a “I’ll pay anything for xyz” manner, and honestly back then even if they did, the probably would’ve been hamstringing themselves and the community wouldn’t have sold to them intentionally.

Time passes.

Many more members. Prices slightly increased. Tommy and co are much more vigilant on maintaining the laissez faire marketplace than before. Sure, WW appears, but so do all the mini WWs.

Suddenly, PCF is without shame. Everyone needs to make their $1. Chips are bought and held specifically to make money off others. Threads of “do you care who you sell to” are created and the answer is a unanimous “no”. Pcfers regularly screw each other, go missing for months, don’t follow through on purchases - no more pitchforks.

Suddenly there is no such thing as “market price”. There’s what you paid, what you could get, and what an asinine price would be.

Why did chips stop moving?

Well, because Bob paid way too much and now would have to take a loss to sell. He ain’t selling.

Well, because Bob paid way too little and now the price is high enough that he’d never get them back. He ain’t selling.

Well, because a mini WW HAD to have what Bob has, and paid out the nose for them to someone else, so Bob is going to hold his until someone else offers that price again. He ain’t selling.

Well, because Bob doesn’t like to screw over people, and just wants back what he paid. But he’s been f*cked by pcfers not honoring fror or flipping. He ain’t selling.

Tl;dr - velocity of money is a sign of a healthy economy. We have very little public velocity of chips.

It’s a marketplace that shifted from hobbyist to transactional, and is the new standard.

It can go up and down, positive and negative, but overall the changes are here to stay. You cannot unwind that shift.

One of the only outs would’ve been whenever/whoever started a tertiary group/forum, and as that gained momentum/members/NAGBs you’d see a dual location type thing happen, where that would start to fulfill more of the hobby focus and this the classified focus. It’s 100000% natural.

Unfortunately, imo, the pokerchipper killed any impetus of that for the time being. They had all the opportunity in the world to fill in the wholes where Tommy simply can’t with such a large membership/history. They could’ve implemented good feedback, organized classifieds, allowed for socially engineered feedback/requests on UI/UX/functionality, utilized tags for organization/search, gambled by allowing raffles - so much. In fact, it could’ve been a great guinea pig for A/B testing and even a resource for Tommy/PCF to see what works or doesn’t work since it’s too big here to be nimble.

I think we saw a natural shift, it had to happen, yes it sucks from the marketplace side, and we won’t see something new that might scratch that itch of pre covid chipping until either chipper quits or membership explodes by several more levels and PCF in general has to just maintain/sunset as whatever new in the 2030s arises.

 

[Tonysquander]

Inflation has locked many of us out of the clay market. Tina customs are now the go to for most people who want a nice set but can't spend car downpayments for chips. I think that the public perception here is also going to have to shift to not seeing Tina chips as dirt from their ivory towers. Otherwise growth will likely stagnate.

You haven’t been around long enough to have seen the entire history of how the Chinese ceramics came into being and grew into what they are now. I believe a large part of the dislike of them by those in “ivory towers” is due to the rampant IP theft, mold appropriation without permission, blatant inlay imitation of established fantasy or real casinos and we have already seen multiple people list them on eBay as “real” casino chips. Their cheapness just gives a lot more people inclined to do such things an easier path to do it.

Maybe you didn’t notice, but there’s a heck of a lot more acceptance of the newer, custom ceramic molds and inlays being created than there are of blatant rip offs like THC and crap-dash ceramic mold chips.

Long story short, there’s a lot more history that goes into it than someone driving a Mercedes looking down his nose at a guy in a wrapped Nissan Versa.

 

[BarrieJ3]

Are that many people not selling bc they r going to lose a few hundred dollars?

Yes.

I believe you are underestimating just how much a very small % of pcfers were responsible for in classified movement.

Not simply that they bought and sold constantly/continuously - but that that buying and selling funded other people’s buying and selling too.

There’s the folks with money, and those without. Those people’s exchanges haven’t changed as much (imo, total guess). It’s the group of folks in the middle - willing to buy and sell thousands and thousands and thousands - but not limitlessly liquid.

IMO it’s the loss of the power users in that field that have slowed everything the most.

 

[jxfan]

So I joined the site just over 6 years ago. Back then it seemed like there were so many different chips and playable sets for sale and constantly moving between members. I bought and sold several sets, participated in Chip Room buys, and always seemed to have an option for something new/different.

- Boat sets
- Big Top Poker
- Cocaine Giraffes
- Isle Cape G
- Binions
- All of the sets from the Chip Room.... seems like it's been forever since a major set was released (Jack Detroit, HSI, etc).

Didn't even know cocaine giraffes were available like that

 

[BarrieJ3]

To support my hypotheses of it’s not just because more members and only so many chips, but in no small part due to people generally sucking:

Our membership has exploded - why did all the good giveaways and sweepstakes drop off a cliff? There should be…more of that not none of that right?

 

[BarrieJ3]

You can add in the fact that fair market value has completely disappeared.

There has never been such a wide range for prices. There are things sold for $200 a rack. 20 times over 3 years, it’s the established price. Sure someone will list for more, but it’ll sit for 3 months and then they’ll cut a deal in on for $200.

Then, one day someone lists for $300. And people snicker. They joke in pms. It sits for 3 months. Others come up for $200 and sell several times.

But then, once in a blue moon, a very non smart chipper comes along and says argh you got me dibs! While there was literally prob at least 1 more classified somewhere currently open for the same chips at $200.

It’s not often. But it’s often enough to keep encouraging the behavior. A lot of PCF public pricing now follows the adage “Aim your classified listing price at the moon, and it’ll land among the stars”.

Add in the fact that people keep listing chips at a price and claiming they sold when they don’t sell, only to relist them later.

Add in the fact that when people DO sell something via pm that was sitting for a month or 3 they just post “Sold” and close the thread - not mentioning the actual sale price.

Add in the fact that people update their OPs with “price drops” and classified changes without any reference to original price or listing.

Bad practices that result in lack of transparency which in some small part artificially slows the market further.

 

[SkyBlue]

I vote we do a group buy

 

[elPadroni]

What do you mean patches? Like sew on or iron on patches? Can you show me an example of a grail patch?

Mostly hook and loop, not iron on. Think Velcro, so they can stick to a wall, a patch board, etc. They are usually thread but more recently people have been using laser cutter machines to make leather or cordura material "laser cuts."
These two have long been grails. The Futurama one is out of 30. That's a laser cut patch. The Diamond Dog one is leather and hand painted. These both would fetch about $2k in their heyday.

Jigsaw was once a $500+ patch by a company named Workshop 432 that specializes in movie characters.

This Rodney is a "grail" because it's supposed to be gifted and not many out there.

This Trust No One is also a leather hand painted patch, very limited as well. Offers for this one at about $1,500 have routinely gone unanswered. I was basically over patches at this point so never owned it.

And lastly, a personal grail. About a $100 patch in the secondary but I wouldn't sell mine

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

I’ll be damned if I’m gonna lose money because I timed my buys wrong.

I’d prefer to die with them in this case.

Meh. You bought them, they're worth what people will pay. Losing money shouldn't be such a fear, other hobbies pay more for their toys and they immediately devalue.

 

[doublebooyah85]

Meh. You bought them, they're worth what people will pay. Losing money shouldn't be such a fear, other hobbies pay more for their toys and they immediately devalue.

This^

 

[elemeno]

Mostly hook and loop, not iron on. Think Velcro, so they can stick to a wall, a patch board, etc. They are usually thread but more recently people have been using laser cutter machines to make leather or cordura material "laser cuts."
These two have long been grails. The Futurama one is out of 30. That's a laser cut patch. The Diamond Dog one is leather and hand painted. These both would fetch about $2k in their heyday.
View attachment 1664638

Jigsaw was once a $500+ patch by a company named Workshop 432 that specializes in movie characters.
View attachment 1664639
This Rodney is a "grail" because it's supposed to be gifted and not many out there.
View attachment 1664640
This Trust No One is also a leather hand painted patch, very limited as well. Offers for this one at about $1,500 have routinely gone unanswered. I was basically over patches at this point so never owned it.
View attachment 1664641
And lastly, a personal grail. About a $100 patch in the secondary but I wouldn't sell mine
View attachment 1664642

Wow, that’s a whole new world I never knew about. Quite interesting and thanks for sharing!